OSNW3 | OSHKOSH-NORTH

The 2013-14 winter forecast for Oshkosh is based on organic forecasting techniques. More details on the techniques are located in another  blog entry  (click the link to read more). I am going to make this forecast short and sweet and let the data do most of the talking. There are a few items that are new to my model this year and more info on them can be found in this blog entry  (click the link to read more). Temperatures will likely end near average, but I need to mention this average is misleading. There will be many ups and downs along the way, shots of seasonal warm and cool air, just like most winters in WI. Snowfall will likely be above average. There are 20 inches of snow separating ensemble members currently, M2 sees 38.5 inches while M3 sees 58.0 inches. OSNW3|WxClimate - Oshkosh Forecast Trend The image above is a snap shot in time. I captured the data on 20NOV13. Both temperature and precipitation numbers will evolve as the seasons progress so  c...

The first ten days of November in Oshkosh were relatively chilly but offered plenty of sunshine. Daytime highs hovered near 40 degrees while overnight lows remained at or just below the freezing mark. In my mind, almost perfect weather to begin the last month of autumn. The early month chill quickly became a thing of the past when a strong warm front pushed 60 degree temperatures back into the region. But as often as it happens in November, a strong cold front slid in behind the warm front. A 30 degree drop in temperature occurred the night of November 12th. Strong northwest winds sustained themselves for over two days which helped manifest the first snowflakes of the season. Temperatures rebounded quite nicely after the plunge providing the area with a near record breaking warm Thanksgiving. Again, however, a November gale followed the Thanksgiving warm front, this time bringing the first accumulating snow to OSNW3. I measured 0.2 inches the morning of November 25th. This snowfall o...

The first winter storm warning of the season was issued on Mar 2.  The storm was worthy of the warning and it reminded me how much I enjoy a snowstorm.  It is something that has been severely lacking in 2011-12 winter season. More on the storm can be found here . A little over two weeks ago I posted preliminary meteorological winter statistics.  I have now updated the numbers and they can be found here . Overall the numbers kept moving in the direction they were headed. Winter was abnormally warm and lacking in snowfall. Spring weather is just around the corner. Following the LRC and the trend it provides for temperature and precipitation, Oshkosh should be fully entrenched in spring by the end of March.  For a look at the trends please click here . Stay on top of the weather that is happening now by visiting the OSNW3 weather brief linked below. ( OSNW3 Weather Brief ) ( OSNW3 March Observations ) (OSNW3 March 2012 Summary) (click o...

Winter is showing signs of actually presenting itself in 2011-2012. According to the OSNW3 Winter Season Duration formula, if the maximum temperature for Jan-22 stays below 32 degrees OSNW3 will have finally made the transition into winter. Regardless of the outcome this is the latest beginning to winter since the 2006-07 season . A short lived Arctic air outbreak occurred Jan 19-21 giving the region a taste of winter. Here at OSNW3 our lowest recorded temperature for the three day span, -5.6 degrees, took place during the early morning hours of Jan-20. Looking ahead, using the OSNW3 forecast temperature trend based on the Lezak's Recurring Cycle theory , days will become seasonal with a good amount of them reaching the freezing mark or greater through the first half of February. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) agrees as well for the next 14 days. I added snowfall forecast maps to the OSNW3 Weather Brief . Check them out. ( OSNW3 Weather Brief ) ( OSNW3 January Obse...

Oshkosh received a down right deluge of precipitation Nov-7 through Nov-10. The area has not recorded that much precipitation in the entire month since 2003. The snow that accompanied the deluge is one of the earliest first one inch snowfalls since 1980. Impressive weather and climate as of late. ( OSNW3 Weather Brief ) ( OSNW3 November Observations ) (OSNW3 November 2011 Summary) (click on graph for the month summary data - it will open a new tab/window) ----- Oshkosh November Precipitation Since the inception of OSNW3 we have never come close to recording this much precipitation in the month of November. As of the 7am hour on Nov-13 we have measured 4.26 inches of precipitation. The next most is 1.91 inches back in 2006 . With a little over a half of the month to go, OSNW3 ranks 10th all-time in Oshkosh history for the most precipitation in the month of November. Precipitation records for Oshkosh date back to 1893. (Oshkosh Precipitation Rank - November) (click o...

The cool and crisp feeling of Autumn is finally being felt here at OSNW3. It took a while. We have yet to dip below the freezing mark, however. Fairly soon though we will be adding the 2011 date to the Winter History page. ( **First Freeze took place on Oct-28 ) The later it comes, the better in my opinion. Only because recent climate trends show more snow falls in winter when the first cold blast takes place a couple weeks later than average. The average first freeze in Oshkosh is Oct 12 (1981-2010). This year has more climatological posibility since it is another La Nina year. A comparison for Oshkosh winters during La Nina is below. "For the second winter in a row, La Niña will influence weather patterns across the country, but as usual, it’s not the only climate factor at play. The ‘wild card’ is the lesser-known and less predictable Arctic Oscillation that could produce dramatic short-term swings in temperatures this winter." Read more here . With that said...

It is insane when a temperature of 90 degrees and a dew point of 70 degress brings on a feeling of relief. In Wisconsin this feeling only takes place during an extended heat wave in the middle of summer. That is exactly where we are at. We've been doing our best to keep hydrated and keep the sunscreen applied while outdoors. As for being inside the house we feel very fortunate to have central air to keep things comfortable. Looking ahead there might be a 24 hour period early next week that provides some relief from the heat, but the heat will return and stay with us for another extended period of time. Anyone following the LRC theory (Lezak's Recurring Cycle) knew the recent warmth was coming with great potential to provide extreme summer weather. This part of the pattern has been documented thoroughly via LRC Weather , WeatherWatch12 , and even here at OSNW3 . This coming week is the pattern feature that brought us our first heatwave of the summer back in early June. Th...

Our recent pattern has included this years 'signature' storm, the infamous ' Great Lakes Cyclone ', and it's passing. With the jet stream weakening and lifting north the potency of this feature in our area has faded. For warm weather enthusiasts it is a good thing as the cool air that followed each instance this winter and early spring will not reoccur. Instead temperatures should hold around average for this time of year. As the patterns continue to cycle however, I have a sneaky feeling that the setup for what was our first heat wave in early June will show up again near the end of July giving us a chance at a string of extremely hot days. We'll see. For a detailed look back at June click here . ( OSNW3 Weather Brief ) ( OSNW3 July Observations ) (OSNW3 July 2011 Summary) (click on graph for the month summary data - it will open a new tab/window) ---- Precipitation Totals Through June As we move beyond the half way point of 2011 here at OSNW3 we h...

It's a shame winter at OSNW3 had to go and end just as another two weeks of winter like weather would blanket the property. After the Great Lakes Cyclone IV passed, like in each previous cycle, a surge of cold air spread over the region locking us into an extended period of winter. Our daily maximum temperature for Mar 24 thru Apr 5 was 36 degrees, 10 degrees below the average. Six of those nights recorded minimum temperatures in the teens. Almost completely opposite from last year during the same time period. A well deserved warm-up is near though. The forecasting computer model massive has finally picked up on it and have it on their radar, something the LRC community has been talking about for months. It's the second week of April and it will end as our first real taste of spring. If it's not raining I will be raking. The monthly climate summary for March can be found here . ( OSNW3 Weather Brief ) ( OSNW3 April Observations ) (OSNW3 April 2011 Summary) (clic...

With the fourth passing of the 'signature' storm in this seasons LRC and winter keeping a grip on the region I feel it is a great time to share the research I've done on the Oshkosh winters of 1977-78 and 1978-79. I decided to research these winters for a couple of reasons. The first being to learn the weather, climate and local history that accompanied the second all-time back-to-back snowiest seasons in Oshkosh's recorded history. The second reason being to find Lezak's Recurring Cycle within them and hopefully extend my learning on the theory by providing visual details on the patterns within the cycles. ---- RESEARCH Participation in discussions on the WeatherWatch12 blog since Oct of 2010 has led me to many great resources for learning about our atmosphere and the LRC. After attempting to find the LRC within previous years on my own with little success, a few lessons from Scott at LRCweather of ways to find the cycle quickly helped ignite the resea...

Our neighbors across the street, the owners of the TAS , were raking their front lawn this past Sunday. I stepped out of my front door and mentioned to them that it is to early for raking as I still had snow in my front yard. I also mentioned that a storm was coming and there will soon be snow covering the ground again. Either way, they are ahead of the spring clean up game and it inspired me later that afternoon to finish trimming a tree and picking up random small pieces of trash that some how float into my yard. It was a well deserved clean up after 95 days of winter. Winter officially ended at OSNW3 on Mar 22. It doesn't look like it at the moment with the fresh coating of snow or feel like it with temps dipping into the low teens at night barely making it above freezing for highs the next day. Adding the fact that we are locked into this pattern for another week or more will make it feel like winter even more. However, a warm up is coming. Plan for the second week of ...