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Showing posts from January, 2012

Still Lacking True Winter Conditions

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In the last blog entry I discussed the fact that winter may finally be making an appearance in 2011-12. All we needed was one more day of 'winter season duration' criteria to have fully transitioned, but alas that did not happen. The maximum temperature recorded on Jan-23 for the previous 24 hours was above freezing and in a 'non winter fashion' precipitation fell in the form of liquid. The good news is we should expect two notable storm systems to make their way towards the region during the first half of February. The question is, will the precipitation make into WI and will it be rain or snow? For more information on the storm systems please see the OSNW3|LRC blog entry "Weather Event Forecasting - First Half Of February".

(OSNW3 Weather Brief)
(OSNW3 January Observations)

(OSNW3 January 2012 Summary)
(click on graph for the month summary data - it will open a new tab/window)

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Weekly Snowfall
Since Jan-22 we've recorded 4 days of measurable snow…

Snowiest Stretch Of The Winter. Wait, Is It Winter Yet?

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Winter is showing signs of actually presenting itself in 2011-2012. According to the OSNW3 Winter Season Duration formula, if the maximum temperature for Jan-22 stays below 32 degrees OSNW3 will have finally made the transition into winter. Regardless of the outcome this is the latest beginning to winter since the 2006-07 season. A short lived Arctic air outbreak occurred Jan 19-21 giving the region a taste of winter. Here at OSNW3 our lowest recorded temperature for the three day span, -5.6 degrees, took place during the early morning hours of Jan-20. Looking ahead, using the OSNW3 forecast temperature trendbased on the Lezak's Recurring Cycle theory, days will become seasonal with a good amount of them reaching the freezing mark or greater through the first half of February. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) agrees as well for the next 14 days. I added snowfall forecast maps to the OSNW3 Weather Brief. Check them out.

(OSNW3 Weather Brief)
(OSNW3 January Observations)

(…

January 12 Snowfall Recap

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A Winter Storm Watch was in effect for the entire area Jan-12, 2012. It became a significant event because it was our first chance at more than an inch of snow since Nov-9, 2011. The snow began around 7am and lightly came down for the entire day. A moderate push of snow occurred mid-afternoon but did not last for more than a hour. Snowfall rates averaged a little over a quarter inch per hour throughout the 14-15 hour duration of snowfall. Flakes were small, light and wind blown. Here at OSNW3 we measured a storm total of 4.0 inches.

(Jan 12, 2012 - 4.0")



(Regional Radarloop - Jan 12, 2012)

Totals from around Oshkosh range from 4.0 to 4.2 inches. A very consistent snowfall as snowfall often varies a bit from north to south in Oshkosh. The consistency continues throughout Winnebago county and the rest of the area. See image below for state wide totals (click image for more details). Don't be deceived by the purple up by Ironwood, it should really be red to orange, as

2011 Weather Summary And A Winter Forecast Performance Review

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The final two weeks of December had the potential to create some winter weather in our area. Unfortunately we missed out on both opportunities as the systems slid south and east of Oshkosh. While the new year brought a needed taste of winter, the first half of January will trend back towards the lack luster winter weather we saw most of December. The forecast trend is based on Lezak's Recurring Cycle theory and can be found on the OSNW3 LRC blog. A performance review of the LRC based Oshkosh winter predictions I made back in November for the 'first cycle' are located farther down in this entry. The climatology summary for Decemeber is below and the summary for January can be found here.

(OSNW3 Weather Brief)
(OSNW3 December Observations)

(OSNW3 December 2011 Summary)
(click on graph for the month summary data - it will open a new tab/window)

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Is It Winter Yet?
Nope, not by the standards we follow here at OSNW3. The definition of a 'Winter Season' is based on t…