Showing posts from November, 2013

November Summary

OSNW3 November 2013 Daily Observations

(click on graph for the month summary data - it will open a new tab/window)

#OSNW3 ends November -3.1°F and +0.87" of #Oshkosh 30yr avg.— Josh Herman (@OSNW3) November 30, 2013

Through the 11th month of the year, #OSNW3 is +6.15" of the #Oshkosh 30yr annual precipitation average.— Josh Herman (@OSNW3) November 30, 2013

More typical to see 270 navigable days on Lake Winnebago in the last decade, only 224 this year, late thaw and early freeze— Clint Harness (@snowfall4) November 29, 2013

Yesterday #OSNW3 recorded it's coldest day since Mar 21-22, 2012 (18.8°F/9.3°F) - Daily climo at link— Josh Herman (@OSNW3) November 24, 2013

#OSNW3 recorded the first #snow accumulation (0.5") of the season this AM.— Josh Herman (@OSNW3) November 22, 2013

#OSNW3 has recor…

2013-14 First Measurable Snow

We recorded our first measurable snow the morning of Nov 22nd.

Based on NWS GreenBay NOWData (81-10), Oshkosh's first measurable snow occurs on Nov 26th. Based on OSNW3 data since 2006, it occurs on the 324th day of the year, which is Nov 19-20th.

Oshkosh 2013-14 Winter Forecast

The 2013-14 winter forecast for Oshkosh is based on organic forecasting techniques. More details on the techniques are located in another blog entry (click the link to read more). I am going to make this forecast short and sweet and let the data do most of the talking. There are a few items that are new to my model this year and more info on them can be found in this blog entry (click the link to read more).

Temperatures will likely end near average, but I need to mention this average is misleading. There will be many ups and downs along the way, shots of seasonal warm and cool air, just like most winters in WI. Snowfall will likely be above average. There are 20 inches of snow separating ensemble members currently, M2 sees 38.5 inches while M3 sees 58.0 inches.

OSNW3|WxClimate - Oshkosh Forecast Trend

The image above is a snap shot in time. I captured the data on 20NOV13. Both temperature and precipitation numbers will evolve as the seasons progress so check back often (click the link…

October Summary

OSNW3 October 2013 Daily Observations

(click on graph for the month summary data - it will open a new tab/window)

#OSNW3 ends October -0.6°F and +0.94" of #Oshkosh avg.— Josh Herman (@OSNW3) October 31, 2013

My @WPSstorm bill this month is the lowest it's been for an October bill since 2006 when it was the same, $77. #wiwx— Josh Herman (@OSNW3) October 29, 2013

Looking east. It was #sleeting as I took the photo.— Josh Herman (@OSNW3) October 21, 2013

#autumn at— Josh Herman (@OSNW3) October 19, 2013

Prior peak? Peaking? Past peak?— Josh Herman (@OSNW3) October 14, 2013

#lakemichigan#sheboygan#wiwx— Josh Herman (@OSNW3) October 11, 2013