Posts

Showing posts from November, 2012

November Summary and a December Outlook

Image
The first ten days of November in Oshkosh were relatively chilly but offered plenty of sunshine. Daytime highs hovered near 40 degrees while overnight lows remained at or just below the freezing mark. In my mind, almost perfect weather to begin the last month of autumn. The early month chill quickly became a thing of the past when a strong warm front pushed 60 degree temperatures back into the region. But as often as it happens in November, a strong cold front slid in behind the warm front. A 30 degree drop in temperature occurred the night of November 12th. Strong northwest winds sustained themselves for over two days which helped manifest the first snowflakes of the season. Temperatures rebounded quite nicely after the plunge providing the area with a near record breaking warm Thanksgiving. Again, however, a November gale followed the Thanksgiving warm front, this time bringing the first accumulating snow to OSNW3. I measured 0.2 inches the morning of November 25th. This snowfall o…

Oshkosh, WI - Winter Forecast 2012-13

Image
The winter of 2012-13 begins my third year following the Earth's cycling weather patterns. One way to remain locked into them is utilizing Lezak's Recurring Cycle theory. I first learned about the LRC theory in October of 2010. An eagerness to learn the theory has grown into a passion. From a once inconceivable backyard snowfall forecast in 2010, to a complete seasonal outlook for Oshkosh in 2011, to a website dedicating my attempts at providing accurate forecast numbers for the entire Midwest in 2012-13. The concept has certainly grown on me.



(Click on the screen shot to navigate to the trends. I welcome all feedback on the site, the data, the 'model' output... anything, as it will help me improve/disregard the product in the future)

Oshkosh 2012-13 Winter Forecast (Dec/Jan/Feb)
The forecast is based strictly on LRC theory accompanied by the formulas I've engineered to project daily surface conditions. The main focus is the middle of the atmosphere and the correlati…