The winter of 2012-13 begins my third year following the Earth's cycling weather patterns. One way to remain locked into them is utilizing Lezak's Recurring Cycle theory. I first learned about the LRC theory in October of 2010. An eagerness to learn the theory has grown into a passion. From a once inconceivable backyard snowfall forecast in 2010, to a complete seasonal outlook for Oshkosh in 2011, to a website dedicating my attempts at providing accurate forecast numbers for the entire Midwest in 2012-13. The concept has certainly grown on me.
(Click on the screen shot to navigate to the trends. I welcome all feedback on the site, the data, the 'model' output... anything, as it will help me improve/disregard the product in the future)
Oshkosh 2012-13 Winter Forecast (Dec/Jan/Feb)
The forecast is based strictly on LRC theory accompanied by the formulas I've engineered to project daily surface conditions. The main focus is the middle of the atmosphere and the correlations it has on the surface throughout the seasons.
Disclaimer: It is understood that the weather can change instantly and despite my best attempts to understand the weather patterns my weather predictions might be incorrect.
Temperatures should be near average trending towards slightly below average. While the end result may hint of cold it will certainly not be the case. Temperatures will be quite volatile this winter with two or three distinct warm-ups each cycle. An example of this trend is depicted in the image below. Within the image however it is noticeable where the cold bias is constructed. There should be two prolonged stretches of below average temperatures within each cycle driving our overall temperatures down. Precipitation should be above average from all indications of how October played out. There is an obvious trend for an active pattern that encompasses one third of each cycle. On each spectrum of this activeness lingers two very inactive patterns however. The precipitation that does fall will come in clumps wavering in and out of wintry. As for wintry precipitation, the numbers tell their own story as well. Oshkosh should see about 17 days with measurable snowfall in DJF bringing the snow total well over the DJF average of 25.9 inches.
(Oshkosh Cycle 2 Trend)
For a lot more information on the numbers that drive the above forecast please visit the OSNW3 | WxClimate trend for Oshkosh by clicking here. For more information on the patterns that drive the numbers please visit the OSNW3 | LRC blog by clicking here.
If there are any questions or thoughts on my analysis of the LRC trends or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. Thanks for reading! Think Snow! Or not.