October Climate Summary, Annual Precipitation and the LRC

October of 2010 was a tranquil month with one exception, the Great Lakes Cyclone. OSNW3 ended the month 1.8 degrees above the Oshkosh mean temperature and 0.40 inches above the Oshkosh precipitation average. We recorded no snowfall. A record was broken at my location on Oct 26, when 1.14" of rainfall was recorded for the 24hr period. As for November, the near future is forecasting average temperatures with small chances of precipitation while a more mild and wet period may be awaiting us in two weeks.

(OSNW3 Weather Brief)
(OSNW3 October Observations)

(OSNW3 October 2010 Summary)

(click on graph for the month summary data - it will open a new tab/window)

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Annual Precipitation
Through October 31st, OSNW3 has recorded 35.96 inches of precipitation. Creeping ever closer to our soaking in 2008 which produced 40.86 inches of precipitation.

(OSNW3 Precipitation Summary - Annual Total)


(OSNW3 Precipitation Summary - Monthly Total)


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More Winter Snowfall Outlook Jabber
I have gained added interest in this winters forecast since my recent discovery of the LRC theory. Another spark to the flame was an interesting fact in Karl Bohnak's blog about the El Nino/La Nina transition during the early 70's. I immediately needed to know what Oshkosh's winter snowfall totals were back then for another potential outlook. Details of my findings are below.

From Karl's blog entry Some Thoughts on the Coming Winter. "One private forecaster has pointed out that the transition from a strong El Nino to a rather strong La Nina is much like the transition that occurred between the winters of 1972-73 and 1973-74."

Oshkosh had sizable snowfall during these meteorological winters (Dec, Jan, Feb). 1972-73 received 39.0 inches and 1973-74 received 36.8 inches. Average snowfall for an Oshkosh met winter is 30.5 inches. The La Nina statistics I am aware of are leaning towards Oshkosh having a decent chance for above average snowfall this winter. One winter outlook that has yet to be released is the LRC winter outlook. I am patiently awaiting that information. It will make this winter very exciting as it unfolds. More on the LRC (Lezak's Recurring Cycle) can be obtained by clicking the link. I suggest checking out the blog when at the website.

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Front Of House
Started trimming the Birch tree in the front yard and the Pussywillow tree in the side yard. I have a sizable branch pile started in the back yard.

(FOH - Nov 1, 2010)

Comments

  1. Of note, if one looks at past analogs, the transition in 73-74 and 07-08 should be considered. It is one thing to have a La Nina year, it is another to have one with a strong seasonal transition from a moderate El Nino to a moderate/strong La Nina. There are several other factors to consider including teleconnection trends and the MJO. All that said, the biggest impact will be the LRC. Things are showing now, it is just a matter of a bit more confidence and what it means. I think many winter forecasts will be readjusted in the near future. ;-)

    Scott

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  2. What an enormous task it is to consider the teleconnection of other oscillations. In other words, Scott, keep up the great work! I am looking forward to future LRC discussions.

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  3. Read today's post on the LRC blog.

    Thanks for bringing this up OSNW3. I'm excited to watch this unfold.

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  4. WxWatcher, I completely agree. I am trying to figure out a way with one computer screen to watch current and archived 12Z NAM 500mb analysis. I want to get it on the OSNW3 website to play with, so we can analyze along with Jeremy from WeatherWatch 12. The image is too large to analyze two at the same time, however. I am working on it, but I am not confident it'll produce.

    I was analyzing the genesis of last years LRC and it's impressively accurate. I've got radar archive of each significant storm cycled Oct thru Apr. I plan to present it to help verify last years cycle. Currently I am struggling with a graphical presentation of the cycle and precipitation data. Perhaps it doesn't need it...

    On another note, I just finished scheduling an archived radar directory for you on the new server. If you ever want any loops, let me know. Either I can upload the files so you can download them and master the creation process on your own or I can create the loops for you.

    Winter!

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  5. I found precipitation data to be somewhat unreliable due to the variablility of the systems that come through. For instance, the Christmas storm that rolled through was impressive and very pronounced on the models, but my precip data was anything but.

    Thank you for the radar resource! I will definitely take you up on the offer again this year. And either uploading the files, or creating the loops...doesn't matter to me. Whatever is more convenient for you.

    7th Grade Weather unit starts tomorrow! Will be doing that until Christmas

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  6. WxWatcher, teaching weather until Christmas break. That will be fun!

    I am directly looking at precipitation amounts in the cycle when I analyze the LRC from last year. The storm in late December, for example, 60-ish days prior and after, my area saw good amounts of precipitation from a similar system.

    I may be looking at it from the wrong direction, but the result I seek from the LRC is precipitation potential. *shrug*

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