November Pleasantry & Lezak's Recurring Cycle; A view from OSNW3
November is beginning as it did the past two years with an up and down feel trending on the dry and mild side with nothing extreme happening. At my location we have only recorded 0.03 inches of precipitation thus far and our mean temperature is about a degree above the average. On a more exciting note, we did register our First Flakes of the season at OSNW3 on Nov 4 at 6:45pm. It came down in the form of graupel, which I learned is a matter of opinion if it actually counts as a "first flake" or not, but we here at OSNW3 have counted it as "First Flakes" of the season. Also, on Nov 5 the temperature maxed out at 38.9 degrees. The Last time the max temperature stayed below 40 was on Apr 9, 2010 when it was 39.7 degrees. 212 days prior. The 6-14 day forecast concludes we will see below average temperatures with above average precipitation after this beautiful weather of late moves on out. Think snow!
(OSNW3 Weather Brief)
(OSNW3 October Observations)
(OSNW3 November 2010 Summary)
(click on graph for the month summary data - it will open a new tab/window)
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Lezak's Recurring Cycle; A view from OSNW3
Lately I've been expressing my interest in the LRC and I've done a bit of digging for some personal verification of the theory. As it goes, I was informed by Jeremy Nelsen in a recent blog entry that the LRC length last year was around 60 days. Knowing the LRC is determined between Oct 1 and Nov 10, I started with the first pronounced storm system to work into the region. October 8, 2009 is where I chose to begin the cycle to see if the same storm recurred 60 days later. Indeed it did around Dec 7, 2009. Adding another 60 days from then the cycle recurs once more landing the storm system in the region around Feb 8, 2010. Again, the storm affects the region 60 days later around Apr 6, 2010. Analyzing the graph and radar loops linked below, each storm recurrence shares enough similarity to verify the 2009 60 day LRC in my opinion.
(Radar)
Oct 7-11, 2009
Dec 8-10, 2009
Feb 8-11, 2010
Apr 7-9, 2010
(Graph)
I needed another instance to verify. October 22, 2009 is where I chose to follow a second storm through the cycle. Each recurrence of this storm shared many of the similarities as did the above instance.
(Radar)
Oct 21-24, 2009
Dec 23-29, 2009
Feb 21-25, 2010
Apr 22-24, 2010
(Graph)
As of right now, I have one major interest in the upcoming LRC length. Just when will the "Great Lakes Cyclone" show it's face again? My anticipation for the 2010 LRC length is growing day to day, and as Jeremy Nelsen states in his most recent blog entry, the pattern is very close to being set! 36-38 days? That would bring a whopper of a winter storm to the region around Dec 2, 2010. We will wait and see!
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Another Historical Storm
In memory of the Great Lakes Cyclone, this past week Doug Zellmer of the Oshkosh Northwestern blogged a weather memory of an Oshkosh resident that dates back to 1940. The entire entry can be viewed by clicking the following link. A tale of woe 70 years ago in Oshkosh. After reading the entry I immediately searched out some "concrete" data to match the memory.
The daily weather maps from Nov 11, 1940 and Nov 12, 1940 conclude that a system similar to the "Great Lakes Cyclone" came rushing through the region. The pressure was very low with the isobars tightly packed together indicating very strong winds. The observations from Green Bay on the map tell me there was a 35 degree 24 hour temperature drop from the 11th to the 12th. The temperature at observation time in Green Bay on the 11th was 49. A day later it was 14. Wind speeds were measured at 40mph. 0.60" of precipitation was observed as well. As the system exited the US, the pressure was down to 981mb. Very impressive. I'd like to add that Mr. Luft has a great memory and I am very happy that he relayed this history to Doug. I'd like to thank Doug for reciting it in his blog. It's a must to keep history alive.
**Addendum - More on this time period can found below.
Karl Bohnak - November 11: A Volatile Atmosphere
SierraVisions - November Gales, Deadly Lakes
I'd like to recommend viewing the weather maps, as the information I described above came directly from the maps. It's all possible by downloading the Djvu browswer plugin, installing it, and then clicking the links to the maps below. It's a painless adventure and well worth the results.
Viewing the weather maps requires the free Djvu Browser Plug-In.
http://www.celartem.com/en/download/djvu.asp#win
Map links.
http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/dwm/1940/19401111.djvu
http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/dwm/1940/19401112.djvu
NOAA Central Library U.S. Daily Weather Maps Project.
http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/dwm/data_rescue_daily_weather_maps.html
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Front Of House
The burning bush is 95% bare. Waiting for the basswood in the back to lose all of it's leaves. Once that is complete, fall yard clean-up will commence. I am not the type of person who does it many times in sake of a "clean" yard. I let mother nature do her thing.
(FOH - Nov 9, 2010)
(OSNW3 Weather Brief)
(OSNW3 October Observations)
(OSNW3 November 2010 Summary)
(click on graph for the month summary data - it will open a new tab/window)
----
Lezak's Recurring Cycle; A view from OSNW3
Lately I've been expressing my interest in the LRC and I've done a bit of digging for some personal verification of the theory. As it goes, I was informed by Jeremy Nelsen in a recent blog entry that the LRC length last year was around 60 days. Knowing the LRC is determined between Oct 1 and Nov 10, I started with the first pronounced storm system to work into the region. October 8, 2009 is where I chose to begin the cycle to see if the same storm recurred 60 days later. Indeed it did around Dec 7, 2009. Adding another 60 days from then the cycle recurs once more landing the storm system in the region around Feb 8, 2010. Again, the storm affects the region 60 days later around Apr 6, 2010. Analyzing the graph and radar loops linked below, each storm recurrence shares enough similarity to verify the 2009 60 day LRC in my opinion.
(Radar)
Oct 7-11, 2009
Dec 8-10, 2009
Feb 8-11, 2010
Apr 7-9, 2010
(Graph)
I needed another instance to verify. October 22, 2009 is where I chose to follow a second storm through the cycle. Each recurrence of this storm shared many of the similarities as did the above instance.
(Radar)
Oct 21-24, 2009
Dec 23-29, 2009
Feb 21-25, 2010
Apr 22-24, 2010
(Graph)
As of right now, I have one major interest in the upcoming LRC length. Just when will the "Great Lakes Cyclone" show it's face again? My anticipation for the 2010 LRC length is growing day to day, and as Jeremy Nelsen states in his most recent blog entry, the pattern is very close to being set! 36-38 days? That would bring a whopper of a winter storm to the region around Dec 2, 2010. We will wait and see!
----
Another Historical Storm
In memory of the Great Lakes Cyclone, this past week Doug Zellmer of the Oshkosh Northwestern blogged a weather memory of an Oshkosh resident that dates back to 1940. The entire entry can be viewed by clicking the following link. A tale of woe 70 years ago in Oshkosh. After reading the entry I immediately searched out some "concrete" data to match the memory.
The daily weather maps from Nov 11, 1940 and Nov 12, 1940 conclude that a system similar to the "Great Lakes Cyclone" came rushing through the region. The pressure was very low with the isobars tightly packed together indicating very strong winds. The observations from Green Bay on the map tell me there was a 35 degree 24 hour temperature drop from the 11th to the 12th. The temperature at observation time in Green Bay on the 11th was 49. A day later it was 14. Wind speeds were measured at 40mph. 0.60" of precipitation was observed as well. As the system exited the US, the pressure was down to 981mb. Very impressive. I'd like to add that Mr. Luft has a great memory and I am very happy that he relayed this history to Doug. I'd like to thank Doug for reciting it in his blog. It's a must to keep history alive.
**Addendum - More on this time period can found below.
Karl Bohnak - November 11: A Volatile Atmosphere
SierraVisions - November Gales, Deadly Lakes
I'd like to recommend viewing the weather maps, as the information I described above came directly from the maps. It's all possible by downloading the Djvu browswer plugin, installing it, and then clicking the links to the maps below. It's a painless adventure and well worth the results.
Viewing the weather maps requires the free Djvu Browser Plug-In.
http://www.celartem.com/en/download/djvu.asp#win
Map links.
http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/dwm/1940/19401111.djvu
http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/dwm/1940/19401112.djvu
NOAA Central Library U.S. Daily Weather Maps Project.
http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/dwm/data_rescue_daily_weather_maps.html
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Front Of House
The burning bush is 95% bare. Waiting for the basswood in the back to lose all of it's leaves. Once that is complete, fall yard clean-up will commence. I am not the type of person who does it many times in sake of a "clean" yard. I let mother nature do her thing.
(FOH - Nov 9, 2010)
Josh, thanks for the link to that plugin. That is awesome. I've been looking for a way to see past weather maps, this is perfect.
ReplyDeletePretty compelling data, OSNW3! I like how you composed your graph to show the cycle periods.
ReplyDeleteI saw that Jeremy posted a preliminary prediction for this year's cycle. I'm going with that prediction for our school's 1st snow contest.
Bring on the snow in Oshkosh!! My 1st inch prediction is this Saturday!
Awesome blog post Josh, I downloaded the plugin, I love the look of those maps! That whole cycle thing is very interesting, but I hope the early December storm will bring rain to you so I have snow my way, lol sorry. A sub 970 mb low in early December combined with snow would make things very very interesting :)
ReplyDeleteHello gentlemen!
ReplyDeleteSteven, thanks for commenting. I agree that the archived daily weather maps are awesome. I look forward to checking out your site and photos.
WxWatcher, I am still debating if the graphs serve a purpose. So thanks for acknowledging them. I am curious of your prediction for your first snow. Please share. I think you'll have your first snow accumulation before December. It'll happen while I'm driving to or from MO. You can count on me being around for updates on a potential snow accumulation up here on Saturday. I hope your prediction is right!
Tim, thanks man. I appreciate it. I knew, if you haven't seen them already, you would enjoy the archived daily maps. The early December storm will probably bring us snow to begin with, then rain as the system moves north. Something a bit like this perhaps... http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/photos/20071201_usradar.gif. 970 mb and snow, interesting fosho!
My prediction for our first accumulation is Dec. 7. I agree it will get colder by the end of the month, even unseasonably so. But it will take quite a snow event in late Nov to get much snow to stick since our ground temperature right now sits at 55.9°. I'm predicting 29" of snow here, which is 6.9" above average.
ReplyDeleteYou drove through some wild weather from STL to Oshkosh a couple of years ago right? (or was it last year?) Couldn't remember if that was for Christmas or Thanksgiving. I remember a great video you posted showing thunderstorms to sleet to snow. Quite a unique experience.
Josh, thanks for stopping by and commenting on SierraVisions. I just found your blog about a month ago and I'm really enjoying it. Can't wait to see what this winter brings.
ReplyDeleteSteven, thanks for checking out the blog. I also can't wait to see what winter has in store!
ReplyDeleteJosh, I posted a link to your blog post on my Facebook page last night, I probably should've asked you before I did it. I found it very interesting and thought others would as well.
ReplyDeleteTim, no sweat man. I appreciate the positive feedback! Those two wxcaster models you linked on your fb page, it is entertaining when one shows zero in MSP and the other shows 5-8 inches. However, they do agree that Duluth will have a hard time keeping any snow that sticks, up 2 inches in both models. I will be watching for updates all weekend in your area.
ReplyDeleteThis LRC has me real curious. I may share it with our better TV weather guy in Spokane. I'm not sure how the guys and gals with the NWS Spokane would handle it?
ReplyDeleteI'm going to be visited by our local newspaper on Friday. Not sure what track he will take in the story. I may offer up my services to do a weather thingy for the paper. We'll see...
How exciting, Bob! Please let us know how that conversation goes.
ReplyDeleteI think I remember you finding a similar link (if not the same) with the archived weather maps on my blog about a year ago. But, yeah, it's awesome. I must admit that I had totally forgotten about it.
ReplyDelete@Bob-- That's awesome. Hope it all turns out well!
-Chris
Bob, there is no better time than now to follow along as the pattern is almost set! Looking forward to your interview goes!
ReplyDeleteChris, the link was posted over two years ago. Time flies huh?
@Bob - I know the LRC has been discussed in Portland quite a bit in the past and we still get many readers on the lrcweather.com site from both Oregon and Washington.
ReplyDeleteInteresting to see the radar loops. You picked two of the larger pieces of the cycle for analysis, which certainly helped in seeing the pattern. We are use to looking at it at the 500mb level, but I have done extensive research on other ways such as teleconnection trends and other methods. There is a growing base of collective evidence supporting the theory and it is taking hold. We are excited to share this and think it is a game changer. Keep up the great analysis! -Scott
Scott, thanks for reading and commenting. Currently I am struggling with comparing the 500mb level maps for this years cycle, especially in the time frame Jeremy is thinking, the 36-38 day cycle. It's difficult for my rookie eye to keep a pattern when cut off lows were present back in October. Ah well. In the meantime I'll keep practicing while personally verifying past cycles... as always, looking forward to the outlook.
ReplyDeleteClue - think of other ways the atmosphere is measured.
ReplyDelete