Nov 9, 2010

November Pleasantry & Lezak's Recurring Cycle; A view from OSNW3

November is beginning as it did the past two years with an up and down feel trending on the dry and mild side with nothing extreme happening. At my location we have only recorded 0.03 inches of precipitation thus far and our mean temperature is about a degree above the average. On a more exciting note, we did register our First Flakes of the season at OSNW3 on Nov 4 at 6:45pm. It came down in the form of graupel, which I learned is a matter of opinion if it actually counts as a "first flake" or not, but we here at OSNW3 have counted it as "First Flakes" of the season. Also, on Nov 5 the temperature maxed out at 38.9 degrees. The Last time the max temperature stayed below 40 was on Apr 9, 2010 when it was 39.7 degrees. 212 days prior. The 6-14 day forecast concludes we will see below average temperatures with above average precipitation after this beautiful weather of late moves on out. Think snow!

(OSNW3 Weather Brief)
(OSNW3 October Observations)

(OSNW3 November 2010 Summary)

(click on graph for the month summary data - it will open a new tab/window)

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Lezak's Recurring Cycle; A view from OSNW3
Lately I've been expressing my interest in the LRC and I've done a bit of digging for some personal verification of the theory. As it goes, I was informed by Jeremy Nelsen in a recent blog entry that the LRC length last year was around 60 days. Knowing the LRC is determined between Oct 1 and Nov 10, I started with the first pronounced storm system to work into the region. October 8, 2009 is where I chose to begin the cycle to see if the same storm recurred 60 days later. Indeed it did around Dec 7, 2009. Adding another 60 days from then the cycle recurs once more landing the storm system in the region around Feb 8, 2010. Again, the storm affects the region 60 days later around Apr 6, 2010. Analyzing the graph and radar loops linked below, each storm recurrence shares enough similarity to verify the 2009 60 day LRC in my opinion.

(Radar)
Oct 7-11, 2009
Dec 8-10, 2009
Feb 8-11, 2010
Apr 7-9, 2010

(Graph)


I needed another instance to verify. October 22, 2009 is where I chose to follow a second storm through the cycle. Each recurrence of this storm shared many of the similarities as did the above instance.

(Radar)
Oct 21-24, 2009
Dec 23-29, 2009
Feb 21-25, 2010
Apr 22-24, 2010

(Graph)


As of right now, I have one major interest in the upcoming LRC length. Just when will the "Great Lakes Cyclone" show it's face again? My anticipation for the 2010 LRC length is growing day to day, and as Jeremy Nelsen states in his most recent blog entry, the pattern is very close to being set! 36-38 days? That would bring a whopper of a winter storm to the region around Dec 2, 2010. We will wait and see!

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Another Historical Storm
In memory of the Great Lakes Cyclone, this past week Doug Zellmer of the Oshkosh Northwestern blogged a weather memory of an Oshkosh resident that dates back to 1940. The entire entry can be viewed by clicking the following link. A tale of woe 70 years ago in Oshkosh. After reading the entry I immediately searched out some "concrete" data to match the memory.

The daily weather maps from Nov 11, 1940 and Nov 12, 1940 conclude that a system similar to the "Great Lakes Cyclone" came rushing through the region. The pressure was very low with the isobars tightly packed together indicating very strong winds. The observations from Green Bay on the map tell me there was a 35 degree 24 hour temperature drop from the 11th to the 12th. The temperature at observation time in Green Bay on the 11th was 49. A day later it was 14. Wind speeds were measured at 40mph. 0.60" of precipitation was observed as well. As the system exited the US, the pressure was down to 981mb. Very impressive. I'd like to add that Mr. Luft has a great memory and I am very happy that he relayed this history to Doug. I'd like to thank Doug for reciting it in his blog. It's a must to keep history alive.

**Addendum - More on this time period can found below.
Karl Bohnak - November 11: A Volatile Atmosphere
SierraVisions - November Gales, Deadly Lakes

I'd like to recommend viewing the weather maps, as the information I described above came directly from the maps. It's all possible by downloading the Djvu browswer plugin, installing it, and then clicking the links to the maps below. It's a painless adventure and well worth the results.

Viewing the weather maps requires the free Djvu Browser Plug-In.
http://www.celartem.com/en/download/djvu.asp#win

Map links.
http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/dwm/1940/19401111.djvu
http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/dwm/1940/19401112.djvu

NOAA Central Library U.S. Daily Weather Maps Project.
http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/dwm/data_rescue_daily_weather_maps.html

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Front Of House
The burning bush is 95% bare. Waiting for the basswood in the back to lose all of it's leaves. Once that is complete, fall yard clean-up will commence. I am not the type of person who does it many times in sake of a "clean" yard. I let mother nature do her thing.

(FOH - Nov 9, 2010)