Return of the 'Great Lakes Cyclone'
The transition from meteorological autumn to winter was abrupt. Temperatures were in the balmy 40's at the end of November, but since then they have struggled to break 30. A Trace of snow has been recorded seven of the first nine days of December, but only one of those days has had an accumulation. As we here at OSNW3 look forward to our first inch in the coming day, we are also anticipating the return of the 'Great Lakes Cyclone'. For a superb discussion on the potential of this weekends storm in our area please direct attention to the WeatherWatch 12 crew, they be dropping science.
(OSNW3 Weather Brief)
(OSNW3 November Observations)
(OSNW3 December 2010 Summary)
(click on graph for the month summary data - it will open a new tab/window)
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Seasons First Inch Of Snow
In my previous entry, WxWatcher left a comment regarding the lack of our first one inch snowfall in Oshkosh. He wondered when our latest one inch snowfall occurrence took place. That got my wheels spinning. I figured the most recent stats would suffice so I compared the previous 30 snow seasons first one inch snowfalls, 1980 through 2009. Results show that Dec 2 is the date that Oshkosh, since the 1980-81 snow season, averages the first one inch snowfall. Our earliest one inch snowfall in the same time frame is Oct 27 and our latest Jan 29. The Jan 29 date seems excruciatingly painful for snow lovers. I remember that winter, and it hurt. Below is a listing of the numbers for a closer look. Click image for a larger view.
(First One Inch Snowfalls 1980-2009)
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Weekly Snowfall
The sky has been full of flakes recently thanks to the winds blowing over Lake Superior. While the LES snow belts of the Upper Peninsula measure in feet, we get to watch flurries. That doesn't take away from the beauty however. Thinking about the past handful of days and the length of the LRC, perhaps 40 some days from Dec 5 might be a good starting point to spend a couple days in the UP playing in the snow?
(Dec 4, 2010 - 0.1")
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Front Of House
I enjoy my FOH photos as they provide a great way for me to see what is in need of some tender loving maintenance. I am unsure if it would be as noticeable to my eye without the photo. Think snow!
(FOH - Dec 8, 2010)
(OSNW3 Weather Brief)
(OSNW3 November Observations)
(OSNW3 December 2010 Summary)
(click on graph for the month summary data - it will open a new tab/window)
----
Seasons First Inch Of Snow
In my previous entry, WxWatcher left a comment regarding the lack of our first one inch snowfall in Oshkosh. He wondered when our latest one inch snowfall occurrence took place. That got my wheels spinning. I figured the most recent stats would suffice so I compared the previous 30 snow seasons first one inch snowfalls, 1980 through 2009. Results show that Dec 2 is the date that Oshkosh, since the 1980-81 snow season, averages the first one inch snowfall. Our earliest one inch snowfall in the same time frame is Oct 27 and our latest Jan 29. The Jan 29 date seems excruciatingly painful for snow lovers. I remember that winter, and it hurt. Below is a listing of the numbers for a closer look. Click image for a larger view.
(First One Inch Snowfalls 1980-2009)
----
Weekly Snowfall
The sky has been full of flakes recently thanks to the winds blowing over Lake Superior. While the LES snow belts of the Upper Peninsula measure in feet, we get to watch flurries. That doesn't take away from the beauty however. Thinking about the past handful of days and the length of the LRC, perhaps 40 some days from Dec 5 might be a good starting point to spend a couple days in the UP playing in the snow?
(Dec 4, 2010 - 0.1")
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Front Of House
I enjoy my FOH photos as they provide a great way for me to see what is in need of some tender loving maintenance. I am unsure if it would be as noticeable to my eye without the photo. Think snow!
(FOH - Dec 8, 2010)
I'm not surprised by your average 1" occurance date. I was shocked to see such a late date for the '02-'03 winter season. I'll bet that was painful.
ReplyDeleteSeems this weekend's storm system lines up with Lezak's prediction of a 40-50 day cycle this year. Good stuff. We still have a good chance to see our first measurable snow, and maybe or first inch. If so, you'd be right about us getting an inch before you.
I'm thinking snow!!
I should've trusted the LRC and the north track by the European model, but then I saw the 00z ECM run Wednesday Morning and felt pretty good that this storm was gonna go way to the south/southeast, then the 12z ECM comes out Wednesday Afternoon and shifted things to the north again, now the NAM, GFS, UK mods are north as well. Should be interesting to see what happens this weekend, and also during the next 24 hours to see if there is any farther north shift with the models. As of now the main impacts look to be south of Duluth/Superior, but it would only take about a 50-75 mile shift to the NW to give me some snow. Oh I forgot to mention, remember the GEM-global model from a few days ago, Josh? Weather is so fascinating :)
ReplyDeleteOSNW3 and company: The Lezak's Cycle is an interesting study for our homeschool family. This is a good example of the value of math. My 15 year old son finds it interesting to look at historical documents and make predictions.
ReplyDeleteInterestingly, we visited my mom in south central KY two weeks ago and wokeup on Nov 26 to their first measurable snowfall.
Thanks!
WxWatcher, our first inch should come this evening and overnight. We'll see. I am trying to put certain snow less events together from 02-03 but what I remember most is NOT having a difficult time going back and forth from the YMCA or physical therapy for pre-surgery strengthening on my knee. Anyways, YES, the LRC is proving to have a major impact on forecasts when the models get confuzzed. I am digging it.
ReplyDeleteTim, I was giddy about the GEM model on Monday or whenever that was. It's coming into fruition after many a transition. I have a sneaky feeling the south shores of Superior are gonna get a good dose of LES. I believe you mentioned this on one of your forecast updates... I don't wanna jinx it, but heck with it. *high-five*
SuzieE, how's TN? The LRC is a great thing to watch unfold. This is my first season "live". I tried to verify 09-10 with radar and precipitation totals, after that little episode I was hooked.
Not quite the Dec. 9 snow from last year, but I hope you get that inch!
ReplyDeleteWxWatcher, you know this. The NWS in GRB has a link up to the storm. It was fun to remember. We got our first inch. So that's done. Looks like RangerRoy will win first day of winter. That is of course the temp stays below 32 and the depth remains above an inch for six days in a row. Which it may not and that would mean no one has won anything yet this year. Nice! La Nina.
ReplyDeleteTN was COLD Wed night. 9 degrees F which is unusual. I was in South Central KY when we possibly had our first snow flurries in TN. So my official first flurry was Dec 5 which is 1 week earlier than Dec '09.
ReplyDeleteI explained the LRC to my mom who lives 120 Mi directly north of us in KY. She said that her area is in for a dry winter based on her casual observation using the LRC.
I'm giving her a rain gauge for Christmas so she can accurately track her precipitation. Her first flurry and measurable snow was Nov 26. Glad we were up there to experience it.