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Showing posts from November, 2011

2011-12 Oshkosh Winter Forecast Based On The LRC

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I first heard about Lezak's Recurring Cycle theory in early October of 2010 from WISN12's Jeremy Nelson. My initial thoughts were that it was too good to be true. Then it happened, I was convinced after one in-depth analysis that it indeed existed. I will admit it didn't take long for me to buy in and afterwards I wondered why I hadn't heard about it before. A little over a year later and an extreme amount of hours dedicated to research and analysis, following the theory has grown into a passion. To this day I endorse the theory to my fullest capacity.

Caught up in all the hype and excitement of learning more about the LRC last winter I attempted a backyard snowfall forecast. Little did I realize that this endeavor would be the proverbial tip of the iceberg. Following the LRC for the past year has led me down a path of constant learning about the upper atmosphere and how it affects the weather on the surface. The benefits of following the theory and thus knowing t…

A November Deluge & An Early First One Inch Snowfall

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Oshkosh received a down right deluge of precipitation Nov-7 through Nov-10. The area has not recorded that much precipitation in the entire month since 2003. The snow that accompanied the deluge is one of the earliest first one inch snowfalls since 1980. Impressive weather and climate as of late.

(OSNW3 Weather Brief)
(OSNW3 November Observations)

(OSNW3 November 2011 Summary)
(click on graph for the month summary data - it will open a new tab/window)

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Oshkosh November Precipitation
Since the inception of OSNW3 we have never come close to recording this much precipitation in the month of November. As of the 7am hour on Nov-13 we have measured 4.26 inches of precipitation. The next most is 1.91 inches back in 2006. With a little over a half of the month to go, OSNW3 ranks 10th all-time in Oshkosh history for the most precipitation in the month of November. Precipitation records for Oshkosh date back to 1893.

(Oshkosh Precipitation Rank - November)
(click on image for entire da…

First Snowfall 2011-12 Winter

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The first winter storm of the season in Wisconsin dumped heavy, wet snow across the central and northeast part of the state. A band of 6 to 9 inches fell from the Waupaca area to Florence. The highest amount measured by an official NWS observer was 9.2 inches near Long Lake in Florence County. More info can be found here.

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Measurements (4)
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Nov 9, 2011 @ 9:54am
Oshkosh was under a Winter Weather Advisory. Early morning moderate to heavy rain fell. The rain turned to sleet. Sleet fell for an hour or two until a dry slot moved into the area. While is stopped precipitating I took a measurement.

0.2" - New Snow/Sleet
0.2" - Total Storm Snow/Sleet
Current Snow Depth - Trace


















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Nov 9, 2011 @ 2:28pm
The precipitation turned to all snow around 1pm. After an hour and half of snowfall I took a another measurement. I recorded 1.3" of new snow bringing the storm total to 1.5" of frozen precipitation.

1.3" - New Snow
1.5" - Total Storm Snow/Sleet
Curr…