Nov 25, 2011

2011-12 Oshkosh Winter Forecast Based On The LRC

I first heard about Lezak's Recurring Cycle theory in early October of 2010 from WISN12's Jeremy Nelson. My initial thoughts were that it was too good to be true. Then it happened, I was convinced after one in-depth analysis that it indeed existed. I will admit it didn't take long for me to buy in and afterwards I wondered why I hadn't heard about it before. A little over a year later and an extreme amount of hours dedicated to research and analysis, following the theory has grown into a passion. To this day I endorse the theory to my fullest capacity.

Caught up in all the hype and excitement of learning more about the LRC last winter I attempted a backyard snowfall forecast. Little did I realize that this endeavor would be the proverbial tip of the iceberg. Following the LRC for the past year has led me down a path of constant learning about the upper atmosphere and how it affects the weather on the surface. The benefits of following the theory and thus knowing the likely weather and climate scenarios weeks and months ahead of time are boundless.

In 2011 the OSNW3 backyard snowfall forecast has evolved into a Oshkosh Winter Forecast pin pointing specific weather events and surface weather trends for the area. An exciting project only truly conceivable because of the LRC.


Again, What Is The LRC?
The ’LRC’ which stands for Lezak’s Recurring Cycle is a weather pattern theory based on the following:

* A unique weather pattern sets up every year between October and November
* The weather pattern cycles, repeats, and continues through winter, spring and into summer.
* Long term long-wave troughs and ridges become established and also repeat at regular times within the cycle. These dominant repeating features are a clue to where storm systems will reach peak strength, and where they will be their weakest.
* The LRC isn’t just one long-wave trough, storm system, or ridge. It is a sequence of troughs and ridges that are cycling across the Northern Hemisphere.

To put this in very simple terms, the weather pattern that occurs in October and November repeats thru the winter, spring, and into summer. The cycle length will vary each year.


The Forecast
No reason to reiterate any more words of Jeremy Nelson of WISN12 or Gary Lezak of LRC Weather. With the cycle duration in clear sites, the cycling weather patterns will now do what they do. Please visit Jeremy's and Gary's winter forecast, linked below, as they dissect the long term long wave troughs and ridges that will be our weather until summer!

Weather Watch 12
LRC Weather

To create the 2011-12 Oshkosh winter forecast I am leaning on all of my rookie year experiences following the LRC. The main focus being the affect the atmospheric flow 18,000 feet above the earth has on the OSNW3 recorded surface data throughout the seasons and each cycle of the LRC. The predictions below are based on a 46-48 day cycle duration. Shrinking and expanding of the duration will take place as the seasons move along.

Disclaimer: It is understood that the weather can change instantly and despite my best attempts to understand the weather patterns my weather predictions might be incorrect.

Notable Weather Events
Cycle 1 (now thru Jan-2)
-Early Dec Cold
-Late Dec Snowstorm/Cold
-New Year Warm-up
Cycle 2 (Jan-3 thru Feb-19)
-Mid Jan Warm-up
-Late Jan/Early Feb Cold
-Mid Feb Snowstorm/Cold
-Mid Feb Warm-up
Cycle 3 (Feb-20 thru Apr-7)
-Early Mar Warm-up
-Late Mar/Early Apr Snowstorm/Cold
-Early Apr Warm-up (spring clean-up)
Cycle 4 (Apr-8 thru May-25)
-Early May Flakes (chilly start to golf leagues)

Events are open to deeper daily analysis queries if desired. This leads into the main focus of any winter forecast. Snowfall!

Days with Measurable Snow
C1 = 13 (now thru Jan-2)
C2 = 12 (Jan-3 thru Feb-19)
C3 = 4 (Feb-20 thru Apr-7)
C4 = 2 (Apr-8 thru May-25)
Season = 31 (including the Nov-9 snowfall)
*9 days above average (1981-2010)

Total Snow Accumulation
C1 = 16" (now thru Jan-2)
C2 = 17" (Jan-3 thru Feb-19)
C3 = 9" (Feb-20 thru Apr-7)
C4 = 1" (Apr-8 thru May-25)
Season = 45" (includes 2.1 from early Nov-9)
*11 inches above average (1981-2010)

The data trend leads me to believe that there will be enough warm spells to compensate for the majority of cold air events within each cycle leading to Above Average temperatures for the winter. The numbers tell me 1 to 3 degrees above average each cycle. Don't get me wrong, there will be some cold stretches this winter, there is no doubt about it, but with warm-ups scattered about may make the overall winter not seem so harsh temperature wise.


On Going Analysis and LRC Based Products
I am determined and focused on providing a different way of seeing the cycle. I have plans that include time-lapse and graphical grids. Besides that, I will keep up to date the forecast trends, calendar, and activity in the AccuWeather LRC Forum. The AccuWeather LRC Forum is a great place to exchange ideas and to continue learning the theory. I recommend it. The 2011-12 Forecast Trends are located below and are permanently located on the lower right hand side of the OSNW3|LRC blog. The 2011-12 LRC Calendar can be found here and in the LRC Analysis Tools section on the upper right hand side of the OSNW3|LRC blog. The trends are based on a 48 day cycle duration. The trending duration may be retracted or extended later on in the year as the cycle breathes if required to keep continuity.

(500mb Forecast Trend For Green Bay)

(Maximum Temperature Forecast Trend For Oshkosh)

If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the LRC or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. Thanks for reading!

Nov 13, 2011

A November Deluge & An Early First One Inch Snowfall

Oshkosh received a down right deluge of precipitation Nov-7 through Nov-10. The area has not recorded that much precipitation in the entire month since 2003. The snow that accompanied the deluge is one of the earliest first one inch snowfalls since 1980. Impressive weather and climate as of late.

(OSNW3 Weather Brief)
(OSNW3 November Observations)

(OSNW3 November 2011 Summary)
(click on graph for the month summary data - it will open a new tab/window)


Oshkosh November Precipitation
Since the inception of OSNW3 we have never come close to recording this much precipitation in the month of November. As of the 7am hour on Nov-13 we have measured 4.26 inches of precipitation. The next most is 1.91 inches back in 2006. With a little over a half of the month to go, OSNW3 ranks 10th all-time in Oshkosh history for the most precipitation in the month of November. Precipitation records for Oshkosh date back to 1893.

(Oshkosh Precipitation Rank - November)
(click on image for entire data set - it will open a new tab/window)


Oshkosh First 1" Snowfalls
To most Oshkosh folks the snowfall that graced the landscape this past week was not a surprise. However, since 1980, one maybe hard pressed to remember when snow accumulated more than an inch this early in November. Off the top of my head, I could not remember. So I dug into it. Since 1980 the snow that fell in my backyard the days of Nov-9/10 is tied for the 4th earliest. It just so happens that back in 2006 two inches of snow fell in similar fashion on Nov-10/11, only without the deluge preceding it.

(Oshkosh First 1" Snowfalls Since 1980)
(click on image for entire data set - it will open a new tab/window)

I would like to clarify that the date the snowfall is tied to is the day the 24 hour observation period ended. In most cases the snow fell the day before. Official observations are recorded for a 24 hour period, 7am to 7am.


Front Of House
We still had snow on the ground and leaves as of Nov-12. Some raking still needs to take place. Leaves with snow on them become too heavy to move. I will wait until they dry. I often use the FOH photo to see things that need maintenance in the front yard. Looks like the "1" on my house number has lost it's top support. *sheesh*

The OSNW3 backyard snowfall forecast based on Lezak's Recurring Cycle theory is due out the week of Thanksgiving. The forecast in 2011-12 will evolve into a Oshkosh Winter Forecast pin pointing specific weather events and trends. It will also be open to deeper daily analysis queries if desired by readers. I am eagerly anticipating this project!

(FOH - Nov 10, 2011)

Nov 10, 2011

First Snowfall 2011-12 Winter

The first winter storm of the season in Wisconsin dumped heavy, wet snow across the central and northeast part of the state. A band of 6 to 9 inches fell from the Waupaca area to Florence. The highest amount measured by an official NWS observer was 9.2 inches near Long Lake in Florence County. More info can be found here.

Measurements (4)

Nov 9, 2011 @ 9:54am
Oshkosh was under a Winter Weather Advisory. Early morning moderate to heavy rain fell. The rain turned to sleet. Sleet fell for an hour or two until a dry slot moved into the area. While is stopped precipitating I took a measurement.

0.2" - New Snow/Sleet
0.2" - Total Storm Snow/Sleet
Current Snow Depth - Trace


Nov 9, 2011 @ 2:28pm
The precipitation turned to all snow around 1pm. After an hour and half of snowfall I took a another measurement. I recorded 1.3" of new snow bringing the storm total to 1.5" of frozen precipitation.

1.3" - New Snow
1.5" - Total Storm Snow/Sleet
Current Snow Depth - 2"


Nov 9, 2011 @ 3:45pm
Another 0.3" was measured as I was on my way out. No time for photos unfortunately.

0.3" - New Snow
1.8" - Total Storm Snow/Sleet
Current Snow Depth - 2"


Nov 10, 2011 @ 7:51am
The temperature jumped a few degrees and the snow changed back over to a snow/sleet/rain mix later in the evening. As far as frozen precip goes a total of 1.8" was measured throughout the day, 0.2" of that was all sleet early on. Overnight another 0.3" of snowfall fell and was measured at end of the 24 hour observation period.

0.3" - New Snow
2.1" - Total Storm Snow/Sleet
Current Snow Depth - 2"


Storm Totals
1.45" of liquid precipitation was recorded at end of the 24 hour observation period on Nov-10, bringing the 3-Day total to 3.24". It gives us the wettest Nov since genesis of OSNW3 (Nov-1, 2006). 4.24" of precip in the first ten days. Annual Precipitation

Winnebago County Nov-9 storm totals (Liquid , Snow)
1.10" , 0.5" - Oshkosh WWTP (NWS Official)
0.86" , 3.0" - Oshkosh 5.6 S
1.45" , 2.1" - OSNW3 | Oshkosh - North
0.71" , 0.2" - Oshkosh 5.2 N
1.14" , 3.1" - Omro 2.3 WSW
1.15" , 3.5" - Omro SSE
1.10" , 1.0" - Neenah

(Storm Radar Loop)

A timelapse of the storm from the vantage point of the OSNW3 webcam can be found here.