Jan 14, 2011

The Month Of The Heart Of Winter

The first two weeks of January have been slightly warmer than what is typical for this time of year, a bit snowy, and mostly cloudy. Only 3 days out of the last 14 have presented the area with cloudless skies but on a bright side only 4 of them have been completely overcast. Otherwise it's been a mixed sky with sun. We've experienced 9 days with at least a Trace of precipitation and 7 days with measurable precipitation. Snowfall totals since the beginning of the month are around average. Real close to what the CPC predicted two weeks ago. As for what the second half of the month will bring, the CPC is showing colder times with good chances of above average precipitation.

(OSNW3 Weather Brief)
(OSNW3 January Observations)

(OSNW3 January 2011 Summary)

(click on graph for the month summary data - it will open a new tab/window)

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Weekly Snowfall
Since the new year meltdown, day after day of at least a Trace of snowfall has kept the non-shoveled paths full of snow. Continuing the wonderful sounds of the snow crunch that comes with each step. That is how I prefer snowfalls, often and light.

(Jan 4, 2011 - 1.3")


(Jan 6, 2011 - 1.0")


(Jan 11, 2011 - 1.7")


(Jan 12, 2011 - 1.1")


(Jan 14, 2011 - 0.5")


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Winter Snowfall Comparison

Again this winter I have gathered precipitation data provided by Winnebago county CoCoRaHS observers ¹ and the official NWS reporting site for Oshkosh to list and compare totals. So far this meteorological winter each station is relatively close without large anomalies. As per usual, the official NWS site for Oshkosh is the lowest of all totals coming in with 18.7" thus far. The highest total comes in from Omro where 22.9" has fallen this meteorological winter to date. Please click on the map for the list of data.

(Observer Locations)


¹ Currently there are no CoCoRaHS observers in the northern areas of the county. There are two NWS observers in Neenah but that data is unobtainable via the Internet as far as I know. Which brings up a great opportunity for anyone reading to join the CoCoRaHS team. All it takes is a little patience and dedication. Click here to join!

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WIBN6 Update
I have recently added some climate data to my Mother's website for her reporting station in Suamico, WI. A 'Winter History' section includes Snowfall, Snowdepth, Firsts & Lasts, Days with Snowfall, and Days with Precipitation. It's a start!

(WIBN6 - Suamico-4NW)


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LRC Chit-Chat
As the month trudges on and the weather patterns cycle I can't help but think about how awesome Lezak's Recurring Cycle theory is. It allows average folk like myself to become much more aware of the struggles that exist in short and long range weather forecasting. To have forecast a month ago that a couple storm systems would pop up this coming weekend and early next week using sophisticated computer generated models would have been blasphemy. We are certain to not trust any model further out than a couple days. BUT, with the LRC it's almost second nature to do something so asinine. I strongly believe it is a tool all professional forecasters should carry. With that said, how am I doing on my rookie attempt at using the LRC to generate my backyard snowfall forecast? Currently I am 2 for 3 on predicting an actual snowfall during a forecast period. As far as amounts are concerned, I am slightly below 50% on accuracy. Not too shabby in my opinion. Total snowfall predicted for the period of Dec 17 through Jan 31 is around 14". Since Dec 17 OSNW3 has recorded 9.0" and with two predicted periods of snowfall remaining I can confidently say that 14" is certainly obtainable. More on this to come as we begin the transition out of the current forecast period and into the 4th cycle of the LRC. I am very excited to watch it all evolve. As always, the crew at WISN 12 in MKE and LRCWeather in KC are great educators on all subjects pertaining to weather, climate and the LRC. I recommend a visit to their sites for all curious persons.

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Front Of House
Frequent snowfalls have left the front yard looking white.

(FOH - Jan 14, 2010)