Oct 15, 2010

A Dry Start To October & More La Nina Trends

A fantastic Indian Summer is what the first half of October 2010 was. Endless warm temperatures coupled with bright sun shining days. Hard to beat in my opinion. However with all the wonderful weather conditions came a lack of precipitation. Only 0.14" of rain has fallen this month to date at my location. Currently we are in the top 10 for longest dry spells since Nov 1, 2006, coming in at 12 days and looking to climb in the coming days (Days With 0.00", graph). Long range forecasts show a slight warm up, 8 days from now, with continued dry conditions. A typical La Nina scenario for this time of year.

(OSNW3 Weather Brief)
(OSNW3 October Observations)

(OSNW3 October 2010 Summary)

(click on graph for the month summary data - it will open a new tab/window)

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Another La Nina Comparison
For this entry I compared the meteorlogical winter, Dec-Jan-Feb, eliminating the transition months of Oct, Nov, Mar, and Apr. I found that the strongest seasons of the ONI index were not always big snow producers. That is especially true when the index is strong coming into October. It tends to deepen some throughout the winter but Oshkosh lacks the big snow totals. Average snowfall when a Jul-Sep index is -1 or deeper is only 28.0", two plus inches below the average Oshkosh winter. Perhaps we will end up with more rain events than snow events this winter?

(Oshkosh La Nina Winter)


And what I've been waiting for, our NWS in Green Bay has put out their variation of a winter outlook and La Nina. Click here for the outlook.

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Predictions for OSNW3's Winter
Winter is just around the corner. Each season predictions are made for the first 1" snowfall, the first "actual" day of Winter, and the total snowfall for the season at OSNW3. If you're reading please feel free to make a prediction. Below is how it breaks down.

Predict the:
First 1" snowfall at OSNW3.
First "actual" day of Winter at OSNW3.
Total Snowfall for the season at OSNW3.

Last day to choose is Oct 31, unless of course the event takes place prior, then you're outta luck. Basically, if snow is in the 7-day forecast from the NWS prior to Oct 31, it's already too late to guess.

Climate data and info to help you choose.
Winter Firsts and Lasts
Winter Definitions of "Actual"
Average Date of First Snowfall

Current Predictions:
joshherman - October 13, 2010 at 5:34:16 pm
Nov 29 - First 1" snowfall at OSNW3
Dec 15 - First "actual" day of Winter at OSNW3.
46" - Total Snowfall at OSNW3.

DoubleJ - October 14, 2010 at 4:52:23 pm
Nov 25th - First 1"
Dec 9th - First Actual
57" - Total

RangerRoy - October 15, 2010 at 9:06:57 am
November 29th 1" of snow
December 16th first day of winter
Total Snowfall = 35.6"

Last season winners...
First 1" snowfall. joshherman and Chris
First "actual" day of Winter. joshherman and Bex
Seasonal snowfall. Bex

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Front Of House
We are on cut 11. I highly doubt I'll be cutting the grass any more this year. I am on step one of trimming. The green bushes in front have been trimmed. Burning bushes to be trimmed after burning.

(FOH - Oct 15, 2010)


(TAS - Oct 15, 2010)