Nov 21, 2009

November Warmth - Winter Outlook

November has maintained the above average warmth. It's unusual for Oshkosh to experience such warmth in November. As of today, this November ranks SECOND all-time for warmest mean temp. However, there is a cold snap forecast to break through sometime next week and settle in as we move onto December. With that in mind, November could fall out of the top 10. We'll see.
(OSNW3 November Observations)

(OSNW3 November 1-21 Summary)

(click on graph for the summary data - it will open a new tab/window)

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November Warmth - Meteorological Winter Outlook
October was chilly and wet while November has been warm and dry to this point. These past two months have caused some speculation on what is to come this winter. Most people are not expecting a cold and snowy winter as the past two have been such. Dissecting the meteorological winter, that the top 9 warmest Novembers preceded, results show that odds are this winter will be above average in temperature and below average in snowfall. (with that said, "all seasonal forecasts should be taken with a grain of salt or even a bit of humor" - John Dee) A quick summary of the findings are below.

1. 2001- 45.4
2. 2009- 43.6 (thru 11/21)
3. 1999- 43.2
4. 1931- 43.2
5. 1975- 41.1
6. 1963- 40.6
7. 1944- 40.5
8. 1953- 40.3
9. 1998- 40.1
10. 2004- 40.0

-Mean Temperature
8 of the 9 winters mean temps were above average. The 1944-45 winter recorded a chilly reading of 17.3° mean temperature.

-Number of Days with Max Temp Below 32

8 of the 9 winters tallied less than average days below freezing. The 1944-45 winter crushed the average ending at 68 total days with a max temp below freezing.

-Number of Days with Min Temp Below 0
All 9 winters had less than average days with a min temp below zero. The 2001-02 winter had an astonishing zero days with a min temp below zero.

-Average snowfall
7 of the 9 winters had below average snowfall. The 1975-76 and 1944-45 winters had above average snowfall.

-Number of Days with Snowfall Above 0.1"
7 of the 9 winters had below average days with snowfall. The 1975-76 and 1944-45 winters had above average snowfall days.

For a much more detailed look into the "Meteorological Winter Comparison When November Ends In Top Ten of Highest Mean Temperature" follow the links below.

* DATA SET
* GRAPHICAL

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Front Of House
Not much has changed in two weeks. Looking forward to the white stuff.

(FOH - Nov 21, 2009)