Chilly Start To October
The first frost of the season came at a usual time (Sep 30), but the first freeze and first flakes made an early appearance, taking place this first full week of October. On Saturday the 10th the mercury dropped below 32° and the first flakes of the season fell. The flakes didn't last more than 15 minutes, but none the less they did fall. It was exciting to look out the window and see snow. However, this cool beginning sparks fearful thoughts of a mild, snow less December. (OSNW3 October Observations)
(OSNW3 Oct 1 - 11, 2009 Summary)
(click on graph for the entire data summary - it will open a new tab/window)
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More On The Season Firsts
The First Freeze of the season occurred October 10, 2009. The low temperature recorded was 28.5° around 7:30am. The temperature hasn't been that low since Apr 11, 2009 when it dipped to 28.8°, 183 days ago. The First Flakes of the season fell on October 10, 2009 as well. Last year they didn't fall until Oct 26, and two years ago we had to wait until Nov 8. (Winter History - First & Lasts)
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Predictions for OSNW3's Winter
With the three firsts of the season occurring, it's evident Winter is just around the corner. Each year a few friends and I make predictions for the first 1" snowfall, the first "actual" day of Winter, and this year for the first time, the total snowfall for the season at OSNW3. Below is how it breaks down.
Predict the:
First 1" snowfall at OSNW3.
First "actual" day of Winter at OSNW3.
Total Snowfall for the season at OSNW3.
Last day to choose is Oct 31, unless of course the event takes place prior, then you're outta luck.
Climate data and info to help you choose.
Winter Firsts and Lasts
Winter Definitions of "Actual"
Average Date of First Snowfall
Current predictions are below...
joshherman - September 16, 2009
Nov 18 - First 1" snowfall at OSNW3
Dec 12 - First "actual" day of Winter at OSNW3
54" - Total Snowfall at OSNW3
DoubleJ - October 1, 2009
Nov 6th - First 1" snowfall at OSNW3
Dec 3rd - First "actual" day of Winter at OSNW3
67" - Total Snowfall at OSNW3
atrain - October 11, 2009
Nov 11 - First 1" snowfall at OSNW3
Dec 5 - First "actual" day of Winter at OSNW3
57" - Total Snowfall at OSNW3
Feel free to participate! You could win a t-shirt! :)
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Fall Foliage
Reading the 'Message of the Day' from CoCoRaHS the other day, I was surprised to read the quoted text below. I never really gave it that much thought, but it seems fair.
"Temperature and moisture are the main influences. The countless combinations of these two highly variable factors assure that no two autumns can be exactly alike."
With that in mind, here are two photos of the tree across my street. One from this year on Oct 7, and one from last year on Oct 7. See the difference?!
(TAS - Oct 7, 2009 & 2008 Comparison)
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Front Of House
Things are starting to change, slowly...
(FOH - Oct 10, 2009)
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Around The Region
Late in the week our Missouri friends had a deluge of a time. Major rains fell over portions of the Midwest. For more information on what went down in WxWatcher's neck of the woods please see his posts Flooding Rain Today and Storm Rain Total. Below is a time lapse of the US radar from Oct 7 through Oct 11. The cold air that was moving through the country is quite noticeable.
(US Radar - Oct 7 - 11, 2009)
(click on radar for a larger loop - 9M)
(OSNW3 Oct 1 - 11, 2009 Summary)
(click on graph for the entire data summary - it will open a new tab/window)
----
More On The Season Firsts
The First Freeze of the season occurred October 10, 2009. The low temperature recorded was 28.5° around 7:30am. The temperature hasn't been that low since Apr 11, 2009 when it dipped to 28.8°, 183 days ago. The First Flakes of the season fell on October 10, 2009 as well. Last year they didn't fall until Oct 26, and two years ago we had to wait until Nov 8. (Winter History - First & Lasts)
----
Predictions for OSNW3's Winter
With the three firsts of the season occurring, it's evident Winter is just around the corner. Each year a few friends and I make predictions for the first 1" snowfall, the first "actual" day of Winter, and this year for the first time, the total snowfall for the season at OSNW3. Below is how it breaks down.
Predict the:
First 1" snowfall at OSNW3.
First "actual" day of Winter at OSNW3.
Total Snowfall for the season at OSNW3.
Last day to choose is Oct 31, unless of course the event takes place prior, then you're outta luck.
Climate data and info to help you choose.
Winter Firsts and Lasts
Winter Definitions of "Actual"
Average Date of First Snowfall
Current predictions are below...
joshherman - September 16, 2009
Nov 18 - First 1" snowfall at OSNW3
Dec 12 - First "actual" day of Winter at OSNW3
54" - Total Snowfall at OSNW3
DoubleJ - October 1, 2009
Nov 6th - First 1" snowfall at OSNW3
Dec 3rd - First "actual" day of Winter at OSNW3
67" - Total Snowfall at OSNW3
atrain - October 11, 2009
Nov 11 - First 1" snowfall at OSNW3
Dec 5 - First "actual" day of Winter at OSNW3
57" - Total Snowfall at OSNW3
Feel free to participate! You could win a t-shirt! :)
----
Fall Foliage
Reading the 'Message of the Day' from CoCoRaHS the other day, I was surprised to read the quoted text below. I never really gave it that much thought, but it seems fair.
"Temperature and moisture are the main influences. The countless combinations of these two highly variable factors assure that no two autumns can be exactly alike."
With that in mind, here are two photos of the tree across my street. One from this year on Oct 7, and one from last year on Oct 7. See the difference?!
(TAS - Oct 7, 2009 & 2008 Comparison)
----
Front Of House
Things are starting to change, slowly...
(FOH - Oct 10, 2009)
----
Around The Region
Late in the week our Missouri friends had a deluge of a time. Major rains fell over portions of the Midwest. For more information on what went down in WxWatcher's neck of the woods please see his posts Flooding Rain Today and Storm Rain Total. Below is a time lapse of the US radar from Oct 7 through Oct 11. The cold air that was moving through the country is quite noticeable.
(US Radar - Oct 7 - 11, 2009)
(click on radar for a larger loop - 9M)
The winter and snow guess-a-thon looks like a hoot. I don't know your region though I might throw in some guesses.
ReplyDeleteThe foliage looks a bit brighter and fuller this year compared to last.
Bob
WX Ranger NW
I like the new summary graph/page! Very cool, easy to read.
ReplyDeleteI've got the winning numbers:
1st 1": Nov. 14
1st Day of Winter: Dec. 2
Total Snowfall: 48"
I'm banking on this cooling trend in the midwest to continue, so I think your winter will arrive soon (I was tempted to put it into November...) Sorry to low ball you on the snowfall, but it's still above average!
Great shot of the tree, too. I need to get some pictures up, because our trees are starting to turn nicely here.
Enjoy the snow, it looks like you'll get your ground at least a 'little' covered today!
Bob, I am thinking the foliage is pretty close to the same. The day I took the photo back in 2008, it was cloudy and the one from this year the sun was shining. That may have a lot to do with the vibrant colors from this years photo... ???
ReplyDeleteWxWatcher, I am glad you like. It's a work in progress... and about 90% automated. It'll save gobs of time in the future. Thanks for playing along. Your predictions are strong candidates for winning. I'll take 48" any year. AND, about the snow that might fall today... I doubt we'll get anything to accumulate, but we'll see. :)
OK... here are my guesses...
ReplyDeleteNov 15 - First 1" snowfall at OSNW3
Dec 8 - First "actual" day of Winter at OSNW3
84" - Total Snowfall at OSNW3
Better you than me!!!
Dang, Dew! 84" of snowfall this Winter. Now that would be magnificent! All we'd need is an endless parade of storms Dec through Feb much like 2007-08. :)
ReplyDeleteThanks for participating!
1st Inch: November 18
ReplyDelete1st Day of Winter: November 26
Total Snowfall: 46" (Hopefully more)
What's the prize? ;)