2010 Year in Review & Learning to use the LRC
OSNW3 ends December with 1.79 inches of precipitation and again surpasses the Oshkosh monthly average making it the fifth consecutive year in doing so. However, December of 2010 is the driest December at OSNW3 on record since genesis in 2006. Our snow pack took a huge hit in recent days as the past two low pressures western track pulled in very warm air for December and with the warm air the dreaded form of precipitation this time of year, rain. These conditions have quickly decimated a strong 8 inch snow pack. Climatology for December since 1893 can be found here. The first couple weeks of 2011 will bring seasonal temperatures and slight chances for below average precipitation according to the CPC. This forecast agrees with what I expect to occur during this time period in regards to snowfall by my novice use of the LRC.
(OSNW3 Weather Brief)
(OSNW3 January Observations)
(OSNW3 January 2011 Summary)
(click on graph for the month summary data - it will open a new tab/window)
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Weekly Snowfall
The recent warming trend put a damper on our great start to the snow season. Not too long ago things were looking exceptional around the region for snow lovers. I have a sneaky feeling we'll be up and down like that this winter. For seasonal snowfall stats click here.
(Dec 19, 2010 - 0.1")
(Dec 21, 2010 - 2.2")
(Dec 22, 2010 - 1.0")
(Dec 25, 2010 - 0.1")
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LRC Learning Process
The storms that rolled through Dec 29-31 brought warm air and rain with them. Something that I did not think would happen back on Dec 17 when I created my backyard snowfall forecast using the LRC. I will admit I was skeptical of this particular system due to the direct southerly flow in the first cycle, but with it being the end of December I thought that it would at the least snow a little bit. Not the case. This got me thinking about a way to accommodate for different types of precipitation when committing to a long range snowfall forecast. Perhaps I could use the temperature deviation from the long term average or the deviation from cycle median occurring in the previous cycle for a clue? After comparing the most recent activity in this cycle and it's partner in the previous cycle I concluded that the cycle median deviation from average was ambiguous, but the deviation from the long term average was not as anomalous. The results may have persuaded me to predict less snow had I thought of this potential component. We'll see if this turns out to be matter for more thought. Click the link above for my latest analysis, fun.
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Climatological Averages
The 'normal' temperature and precipitation numbers we have all become accustomed to the past ten years are all about to change. Each decade the NWS recalculates the 30 year averages. We will be moving from the 1971-2000 time period onto the 1981-2010 period. It seems it may be a daunting task to incorporate all the new averages into my database, but it gives me a great opportunity to upgrade. I look forward to seeing the new averages!
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2010 - Year In Review
:January; Two words. El Nino. First ten days were seasonable but overall Jan 2010 was mild and dry.
:February; Accompanied by above average snowfall and above average temperatures, the below average snow pack quickly melted away once March arrived. Overall all it was mild and wet.
:March; Spring was the overall theme as it was warm and dry. Joined just four other months of March since 1893 to not record a maximum temperature below freezing. However, an upside was that the ice shoves did not disappoint this winter enthusiast.
:April; Felt more like May or June. A wet start, typical of the past few years. Earliest lake fly hatch in 50 years. Green-up began two weeks earlier than the previous year.
:May; A true roller coaster ride. 80's to begin and end, but the first ever snowflakes recorded at OSNW3 in May, during the middle of the month.
:June; Seasonally warm and very wet. Dew points were maxed out near the end of the month. Rain barrel was consistently full and untouched all month.
:July; Record breaking rains and dew points above 65 for all but a hand full of days. The dog days of summer were prevalent. 3 rain events over an inch.
:August; August ends 2 inches below average but summer ends as Wettest ever. Dew points stay maxed out for most of the month.
:September; Provided a relief from the summer heat but hung us out to dry relatively speaking. 16 days with measurable precipitation but yet remained below average.
:October; Warm and dry. 17 days without measurable precipitation, ranking in the top 5 all-time dry spells at OSNW3. An unforgettable event, the Great Lakes Cyclone.
:November; A dry and mild month. Typical ups and downs. Below average precipitation as is the normal at OSNW3.
:December; Relatively snowy but not to be overlooked by a late arriving first inch and start to winter. One blizzard which was issued a winter storm warning. A late warming trend killed the 8+ inches of snow pack to end the year.
Daily climatology can be found for each of the months by following this link. An overall climatological summary of 2010 can be found here. A precipitation comparison graph of each of the four full years on record at OSNW3 can be here.
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Front Of House
It's 2011, Happy New Year! FOH 2010 time lapse coming soon.
(FOH - Jan 1, 2011)
(OSNW3 Weather Brief)
(OSNW3 January Observations)
(OSNW3 January 2011 Summary)
(click on graph for the month summary data - it will open a new tab/window)
----
Weekly Snowfall
The recent warming trend put a damper on our great start to the snow season. Not too long ago things were looking exceptional around the region for snow lovers. I have a sneaky feeling we'll be up and down like that this winter. For seasonal snowfall stats click here.
(Dec 19, 2010 - 0.1")
(Dec 21, 2010 - 2.2")
(Dec 22, 2010 - 1.0")
(Dec 25, 2010 - 0.1")
----
LRC Learning Process
The storms that rolled through Dec 29-31 brought warm air and rain with them. Something that I did not think would happen back on Dec 17 when I created my backyard snowfall forecast using the LRC. I will admit I was skeptical of this particular system due to the direct southerly flow in the first cycle, but with it being the end of December I thought that it would at the least snow a little bit. Not the case. This got me thinking about a way to accommodate for different types of precipitation when committing to a long range snowfall forecast. Perhaps I could use the temperature deviation from the long term average or the deviation from cycle median occurring in the previous cycle for a clue? After comparing the most recent activity in this cycle and it's partner in the previous cycle I concluded that the cycle median deviation from average was ambiguous, but the deviation from the long term average was not as anomalous. The results may have persuaded me to predict less snow had I thought of this potential component. We'll see if this turns out to be matter for more thought. Click the link above for my latest analysis, fun.
----
Climatological Averages
The 'normal' temperature and precipitation numbers we have all become accustomed to the past ten years are all about to change. Each decade the NWS recalculates the 30 year averages. We will be moving from the 1971-2000 time period onto the 1981-2010 period. It seems it may be a daunting task to incorporate all the new averages into my database, but it gives me a great opportunity to upgrade. I look forward to seeing the new averages!
----
2010 - Year In Review
:January; Two words. El Nino. First ten days were seasonable but overall Jan 2010 was mild and dry.
:February; Accompanied by above average snowfall and above average temperatures, the below average snow pack quickly melted away once March arrived. Overall all it was mild and wet.
:March; Spring was the overall theme as it was warm and dry. Joined just four other months of March since 1893 to not record a maximum temperature below freezing. However, an upside was that the ice shoves did not disappoint this winter enthusiast.
:April; Felt more like May or June. A wet start, typical of the past few years. Earliest lake fly hatch in 50 years. Green-up began two weeks earlier than the previous year.
:May; A true roller coaster ride. 80's to begin and end, but the first ever snowflakes recorded at OSNW3 in May, during the middle of the month.
:June; Seasonally warm and very wet. Dew points were maxed out near the end of the month. Rain barrel was consistently full and untouched all month.
:July; Record breaking rains and dew points above 65 for all but a hand full of days. The dog days of summer were prevalent. 3 rain events over an inch.
:August; August ends 2 inches below average but summer ends as Wettest ever. Dew points stay maxed out for most of the month.
:September; Provided a relief from the summer heat but hung us out to dry relatively speaking. 16 days with measurable precipitation but yet remained below average.
:October; Warm and dry. 17 days without measurable precipitation, ranking in the top 5 all-time dry spells at OSNW3. An unforgettable event, the Great Lakes Cyclone.
:November; A dry and mild month. Typical ups and downs. Below average precipitation as is the normal at OSNW3.
:December; Relatively snowy but not to be overlooked by a late arriving first inch and start to winter. One blizzard which was issued a winter storm warning. A late warming trend killed the 8+ inches of snow pack to end the year.
Daily climatology can be found for each of the months by following this link. An overall climatological summary of 2010 can be found here. A precipitation comparison graph of each of the four full years on record at OSNW3 can be here.
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Front Of House
It's 2011, Happy New Year! FOH 2010 time lapse coming soon.
(FOH - Jan 1, 2011)
Our snow pack took a hit during the 1st one we lost 8 inches, but it's not a bad thing becuase we had 26 inches on the ground, it was nice to lose some. The melting snow has begun to make me long for Spring!
ReplyDeleteD, a 26" snow depth is unheard of around here. Can you walk on top of it? Spring is dead to me at the moment. I am craving some winter.
ReplyDeleteJosh - it is great to watch the learning process. It is very similar to how over the years I learned it. In fact, I took the path of surface analysis in my own independent study. It is tough. When dealing with one independent reporting station, utilizing the LRC can be deceptive. I found that there are times it is easy to spot at the surface, but only if you are very near one of the longwaves. Otherwise, it can be tough. You are on the right path...keep researching. Expand your knowledge of other circulation patterns...it will help. -Scott
ReplyDeleteSecond quick thought. I was just re-reading a very similar entry we did in '09 on the lrcweather blog. One thing to try is trending the temp anomalies graphically. You might better see the pattern via the similar trends of rises and falls.
ReplyDeleteJust food for thought.
I really enjoyed the Year in Review. It caused me to remember all sorts of things I'd forgotten and reminded me how incredible those July storms were. Thanks!
ReplyDeleteThe year is review extracts (I assume from your daily WX notes) really presented a nice capsule of what went on in your area. Thanks. I’m going to focus on the LCR thingy a bit more. I guess what takes to air out of me is the possibility of “knowing” what the weather may bring in the near future. I like the surprises.
ReplyDeleteScott, thanks for commenting. I am very interested in the LRC and I appreciate your insight. I will be taking a look at the lrcweather blog entry you mentioned and tossing the temps into a graph. I look forward to my findings.
ReplyDeleteLee, thank you for reading it. We certainly did get soaked this past July. Just two years ago we had an extreme precipitation total in June which helped us top 40 inches for that year. Quite similar to our spike in July. Question for you, do you note when your hops start 'becoming hops' each growing season? I think it would be fun to keep track of that and compare it to recent weather and climate trends.
Bob, thanks! Your assumption is right on. I also enjoy re-reading past blog postings to spark my memory. No better way to relive the past year, as I have a horrible memory. Regarding the LRC, knowing that a system is coming weeks in advance puts an entirely knew perspective on watching it evolve. Which has been very surprising and something I am getting a great kick out of lately. As Jeremy at WeatherWatch 12 says, "follow along for a year" and then form an opinion. :)
Over the last couple years of hop growing I’ve been keeping track of the harvest date (though for the life of me I can’t seem to find that right now). In 2010 year we picked about two weeks later than we did in 2009. They 2010 hops matured late, which I assume had something to do with all the stress they went through in July. So far, I’ve made 4 batches of beer from the 2010 hops and they have quite a bit less punch than the 2009 hops and are lacking in aroma.
ReplyDeleteGreat summary as usual OSNW3! You really know how to raise the bar to us bloggers. :o)
ReplyDeleteWe moved over Christmas break, so I've been "down for maintenence" for a couple of weeks. I hope to get my summary up soon! Hope you all enjoyed the new year.
Lee, I was reading an Oso six pack carrier the other day and it recommended that I save the bottles and six pack carrier for home brewers because possibly the brewer would exchange for a bottle of their brew. That got me thinking that I would really enjoy tasting your "bad" hops from 2010. :)
ReplyDeleteWxWatcher, thanks bro. I am looking forward to your full on return to the blogger world. How many miles and in what direction did your rain gauge and weather station move?
I have a couple bottles left of this year's "Hop Test" batch. Send me an email or something and we'll figure out a way to get them into your hands.
ReplyDeleteLee, it's a deal. :)
ReplyDelete