The Month Of The Heart Of Winter
The first two weeks of January have been slightly warmer than what is typical for this time of year, a bit snowy, and mostly cloudy. Only 3 days out of the last 14 have presented the area with cloudless skies but on a bright side only 4 of them have been completely overcast. Otherwise it's been a mixed sky with sun. We've experienced 9 days with at least a Trace of precipitation and 7 days with measurable precipitation. Snowfall totals since the beginning of the month are around average. Real close to what the CPC predicted two weeks ago. As for what the second half of the month will bring, the CPC is showing colder times with good chances of above average precipitation.
(OSNW3 Weather Brief)
(OSNW3 January Observations)
(OSNW3 January 2011 Summary)
(click on graph for the month summary data - it will open a new tab/window)
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Weekly Snowfall
Since the new year meltdown, day after day of at least a Trace of snowfall has kept the non-shoveled paths full of snow. Continuing the wonderful sounds of the snow crunch that comes with each step. That is how I prefer snowfalls, often and light.
(Jan 4, 2011 - 1.3")
(Jan 6, 2011 - 1.0")
(Jan 11, 2011 - 1.7")
(Jan 12, 2011 - 1.1")
(Jan 14, 2011 - 0.5")
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Winter Snowfall Comparison
Again this winter I have gathered precipitation data provided by Winnebago county CoCoRaHS observers ¹ and the official NWS reporting site for Oshkosh to list and compare totals. So far this meteorological winter each station is relatively close without large anomalies. As per usual, the official NWS site for Oshkosh is the lowest of all totals coming in with 18.7" thus far. The highest total comes in from Omro where 22.9" has fallen this meteorological winter to date. Please click on the map for the list of data.
(Observer Locations)
¹ Currently there are no CoCoRaHS observers in the northern areas of the county. There are two NWS observers in Neenah but that data is unobtainable via the Internet as far as I know. Which brings up a great opportunity for anyone reading to join the CoCoRaHS team. All it takes is a little patience and dedication. Click here to join!
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WIBN6 Update
I have recently added some climate data to my Mother's website for her reporting station in Suamico, WI. A 'Winter History' section includes Snowfall, Snowdepth, Firsts & Lasts, Days with Snowfall, and Days with Precipitation. It's a start!
(WIBN6 - Suamico-4NW)
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LRC Chit-Chat
As the month trudges on and the weather patterns cycle I can't help but think about how awesome Lezak's Recurring Cycle theory is. It allows average folk like myself to become much more aware of the struggles that exist in short and long range weather forecasting. To have forecast a month ago that a couple storm systems would pop up this coming weekend and early next week using sophisticated computer generated models would have been blasphemy. We are certain to not trust any model further out than a couple days. BUT, with the LRC it's almost second nature to do something so asinine. I strongly believe it is a tool all professional forecasters should carry. With that said, how am I doing on my rookie attempt at using the LRC to generate my backyard snowfall forecast? Currently I am 2 for 3 on predicting an actual snowfall during a forecast period. As far as amounts are concerned, I am slightly below 50% on accuracy. Not too shabby in my opinion. Total snowfall predicted for the period of Dec 17 through Jan 31 is around 14". Since Dec 17 OSNW3 has recorded 9.0" and with two predicted periods of snowfall remaining I can confidently say that 14" is certainly obtainable. More on this to come as we begin the transition out of the current forecast period and into the 4th cycle of the LRC. I am very excited to watch it all evolve. As always, the crew at WISN 12 in MKE and LRCWeather in KC are great educators on all subjects pertaining to weather, climate and the LRC. I recommend a visit to their sites for all curious persons.
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Front Of House
Frequent snowfalls have left the front yard looking white.
(FOH - Jan 14, 2010)
(OSNW3 Weather Brief)
(OSNW3 January Observations)
(OSNW3 January 2011 Summary)
(click on graph for the month summary data - it will open a new tab/window)
----
Weekly Snowfall
Since the new year meltdown, day after day of at least a Trace of snowfall has kept the non-shoveled paths full of snow. Continuing the wonderful sounds of the snow crunch that comes with each step. That is how I prefer snowfalls, often and light.
(Jan 4, 2011 - 1.3")
(Jan 6, 2011 - 1.0")
(Jan 11, 2011 - 1.7")
(Jan 12, 2011 - 1.1")
(Jan 14, 2011 - 0.5")
----
Winter Snowfall Comparison
Again this winter I have gathered precipitation data provided by Winnebago county CoCoRaHS observers ¹ and the official NWS reporting site for Oshkosh to list and compare totals. So far this meteorological winter each station is relatively close without large anomalies. As per usual, the official NWS site for Oshkosh is the lowest of all totals coming in with 18.7" thus far. The highest total comes in from Omro where 22.9" has fallen this meteorological winter to date. Please click on the map for the list of data.
(Observer Locations)
¹ Currently there are no CoCoRaHS observers in the northern areas of the county. There are two NWS observers in Neenah but that data is unobtainable via the Internet as far as I know. Which brings up a great opportunity for anyone reading to join the CoCoRaHS team. All it takes is a little patience and dedication. Click here to join!
----
WIBN6 Update
I have recently added some climate data to my Mother's website for her reporting station in Suamico, WI. A 'Winter History' section includes Snowfall, Snowdepth, Firsts & Lasts, Days with Snowfall, and Days with Precipitation. It's a start!
(WIBN6 - Suamico-4NW)
----
LRC Chit-Chat
As the month trudges on and the weather patterns cycle I can't help but think about how awesome Lezak's Recurring Cycle theory is. It allows average folk like myself to become much more aware of the struggles that exist in short and long range weather forecasting. To have forecast a month ago that a couple storm systems would pop up this coming weekend and early next week using sophisticated computer generated models would have been blasphemy. We are certain to not trust any model further out than a couple days. BUT, with the LRC it's almost second nature to do something so asinine. I strongly believe it is a tool all professional forecasters should carry. With that said, how am I doing on my rookie attempt at using the LRC to generate my backyard snowfall forecast? Currently I am 2 for 3 on predicting an actual snowfall during a forecast period. As far as amounts are concerned, I am slightly below 50% on accuracy. Not too shabby in my opinion. Total snowfall predicted for the period of Dec 17 through Jan 31 is around 14". Since Dec 17 OSNW3 has recorded 9.0" and with two predicted periods of snowfall remaining I can confidently say that 14" is certainly obtainable. More on this to come as we begin the transition out of the current forecast period and into the 4th cycle of the LRC. I am very excited to watch it all evolve. As always, the crew at WISN 12 in MKE and LRCWeather in KC are great educators on all subjects pertaining to weather, climate and the LRC. I recommend a visit to their sites for all curious persons.
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Front Of House
Frequent snowfalls have left the front yard looking white.
(FOH - Jan 14, 2010)
Great post O, You have seen FAR less snow then we have. We have had well over 40 inches of snow so far this winter and winter has barely started!, I'll to the offical tallying and post it to twitter. You look at twitter often right? You should pop on over to my blog later I've got pictures and information on the last snowfall.
ReplyDeleteSalutations to OSNW3!
ReplyDeleteI am unfamiliar but very interested in Lezak's Recurring Cycle. The data you have accumulated and organized on this page has interesting patterns within the numbers, both cumulatively and chronologically. I need more information; what are MaxT and ALTDev? Please advise!
I am vacationing with Sarah to Yosemite in late May. Yosemite Falls will be at "peak flow" at that time due to melt-water (not precip!). Would you be interested in helping me learn and use Lezak's Recurring Cycle to make observations and predictions in the mighty Yosemite National Park? If not, may I persuade you with compensation ... such as photos of Mariposa Grove or the crazy weather at Half Dome?
It is great to see how the data you have accumulated is growing into something really substantial. Keep up the good weather! I mean good work!
UPDATE: I just saw the definition of "ALTDev" in the footnotes on the page that I referenced with a hyperlink in my previous comment, however, I could not locate any information about "MaxT". Please advise!
ReplyDeletePlease relax and enjoy while you let this image of a polar front cyclone encourage you to help me learn and use Lezak's Recurring Cycle with precipitation observations and weather safety predictions in the mighty Yosemite National Park!
UPDATE: I found the disambiguation of ALTDev in the footnotes of the page that I referenced with a hyperlink in my previous comment, however, I could not locate any information about MaxT. Please advise!
ReplyDeletePlease relax and enjoy while you let this image of a polar front cyclone encourage you to help me learn and use Lezak's Recurring Cycle to make precipitation observations and weather safety predictions in the mighty Yosemite National Park!
D, thanks and you are correct. The pattern has allowed major snows accumulate in your neck of the woods. Which is awesome. I am glad you are enjoying it. I know I would be. I am a follower of the tweet and your blog. Looking forward to it.
ReplyDeleteMarkMartin57, thanks for following along. I believe as time moves on the presentation of the data will improve. Perhaps we get together and spend an hour or two digging into Yosemite weather from this season and come up with potential weather situations for late May using the LRC? I'll bring the beer. I am certain it would be worthwhile. Great photos, I will enjoy with massive enthusiasm the personal photos you provide once you return from the big park.
Shameless plug - should any businesses be looking for LRC type forecasts and much more for planning/logistics/etc...please contact us a biz at lrcweather dot com.
ReplyDeletelrcweather, I have no problem with you plugging the LRC on here. As a matter of fact, I'll plug it on my Oshkosh Northwestern blog entry as well. It's basically the same blog as this but may hit more closer to home with the readers in Oshkosh, WI.
ReplyDeleteLooking forward to what this up and coming 'signature' storm might evolve into.