OSNW3 | OSHKOSH-NORTH

Winter is showing signs of actually presenting itself in 2011-2012. According to the OSNW3 Winter Season Duration formula, if the maximum temperature for Jan-22 stays below 32 degrees OSNW3 will have finally made the transition into winter. Regardless of the outcome this is the latest beginning to winter since the 2006-07 season . A short lived Arctic air outbreak occurred Jan 19-21 giving the region a taste of winter. Here at OSNW3 our lowest recorded temperature for the three day span, -5.6 degrees, took place during the early morning hours of Jan-20. Looking ahead, using the OSNW3 forecast temperature trend based on the Lezak's Recurring Cycle theory , days will become seasonal with a good amount of them reaching the freezing mark or greater through the first half of February. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) agrees as well for the next 14 days. I added snowfall forecast maps to the OSNW3 Weather Brief . Check them out. ( OSNW3 Weather Brief ) ( OSNW3 January Obse...

The final two weeks of December had the potential to create some winter weather in our area. Unfortunately we missed out on both opportunities as the systems slid south and east of Oshkosh. While the new year brought a needed taste of winter, the first half of January will trend back towards the lack luster winter weather we saw most of December . The forecast trend is based on Lezak's Recurring Cycle theory and can be found on the OSNW3 LRC blog . A performance review of the LRC based Oshkosh winter predictions I made back in November for the 'first cycle' are located farther down in this entry. The climatology summary for Decemeber is below and the summary for January can be found here . ( OSNW3 Weather Brief ) ( OSNW3 December Observations ) (OSNW3 December 2011 Summary) (click on graph for the month summary data - it will open a new tab/window) ---- Is It Winter Yet? Nope, not by the standards we follow here at OSNW3. The definition of a 'Winter Seaso...

I first heard about Lezak's Recurring Cycle theory in early October of 2010 from WISN12's Jeremy Nelson. My initial thoughts were that it was too good to be true. Then it happened, I was convinced after one in-depth analysis that it indeed existed. I will admit it didn't take long for me to buy in and afterwards I wondered why I hadn't heard about it before. A little over a year later and an extreme amount of hours dedicated to research and analysis, following the theory has grown into a passion. To this day I endorse the theory to my fullest capacity. Caught up in all the hype and excitement of learning more about the LRC last winter I attempted a backyard snowfall forecast. Little did I realize that this endeavor would be the proverbial tip of the iceberg. Following the LRC for the past year has led me down a path of constant learning about the upper atmosphere and how it affects the weather on the surface. The benefits of following the theory and thus knowin...