OSNW3 | OSHKOSH-NORTH

The winter of 2013-14 has come to an end. Spring is officially here, in my backyard. Let me review the the conditions that constitute a winter season. The definition of a Winter Season Duration (WSD) is as follows, and in the case of OSNW3, six(6), is used for "several" consecutive days. First Day of Winter represents a daily max temp equal or below 32°F and a snow depth of 1" or greater for several consecutive days. Last Day of Winter represents a daily max temp equal or above 32°F and a snow depth less than 1" for several consecutive days. ---- The winter of 2013-14 lasted 109 days. It began on Dec 14, 2013 and ended on Apr 1, 2014. Below is a graphical representation. What is locked into memory from last winter? It also lasted 109 days. It began later, ended later and was not persistently cold like this winter. Note the differences between last year (below) and this year (above). While it seems uncommon, we cannot rule out winter making a return thi...

The 2013-14 winter forecast for Oshkosh is based on organic forecasting techniques. More details on the techniques are located in another  blog entry  (click the link to read more). I am going to make this forecast short and sweet and let the data do most of the talking. There are a few items that are new to my model this year and more info on them can be found in this blog entry  (click the link to read more). Temperatures will likely end near average, but I need to mention this average is misleading. There will be many ups and downs along the way, shots of seasonal warm and cool air, just like most winters in WI. Snowfall will likely be above average. There are 20 inches of snow separating ensemble members currently, M2 sees 38.5 inches while M3 sees 58.0 inches. OSNW3|WxClimate - Oshkosh Forecast Trend The image above is a snap shot in time. I captured the data on 20NOV13. Both temperature and precipitation numbers will evolve as the seasons progress so  c...