OSNW3 | OSHKOSH-NORTH

Snowiest Stretch Of The Winter. Wait, Is It Winter Yet?

2012-01-22T16:10:00.009-06:00

Winter is showing signs of actually presenting itself in 2011-2012. According to the OSNW3 Winter Season Duration formula, if the maximum temperature for Jan-22 stays below 32 degrees OSNW3 will have finally made the transition into winter. Regardless of the outcome this is the latest beginning to winter since the 2006-07 season. A short lived Arctic air outbreak occurred Jan 19-21 giving the region a taste of winter. Here at OSNW3 our lowest recorded temperature for the three day span, -5.6 degrees, took place during the early morning hours of Jan-20. Looking ahead, using the OSNW3 forecast temperature trend based on the Lezak's Recurring Cycle theory, days will become seasonal with a good amount of them reaching the freezing mark or greater through the first half of February. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) agrees as well for the next 14 days. I added snowfall forecast maps to the OSNW3 Weather Brief. Check them out.

(OSNW3 Weather Brief)
(OSNW3 January Observations)

(OSNW3 January 2012 Summary)

(click on graph for the month summary data - it will open a new tab/window)

----

Weekly Snowfall
Since the Jan-12 snow event we've had a Trace or more of snowfall 6 of the 9 days and of those 6 days 4 of them recorded measurable snowfall. This marks the snowiest stretch of days we've had this winter. For the month of January we are shy of the long-term average by 2.5 inches.

(Jan-17, 2012 - 0.1")

(Jan-18, 2012 - 1.0")

(Jan-19, 2012 - 0.3")

(Jan-21, 2012 - 1.0")

----

Front Of House
Our snowdepth is around 4". The wovel is not getting much work. However, we are doing our best to enjoy what winter weather we have had.

(FOH - Jan 22, 2012)

January 12 Snowfall Recap

2012-01-13T23:00:00.002-06:00

A Winter Storm Watch was in effect for the entire area Jan-12, 2012. It became a significant event because it was our first chance at more than an inch of snow since Nov-9, 2011. The snow began around 7am and lightly came down for the entire day. A moderate push of snow occurred mid-afternoon but did not last for more than a hour. Snowfall rates averaged a little over a quarter inch per hour throughout the 14-15 hour duration of snowfall. Flakes were small, light and wind blown. Here at OSNW3 we measured a storm total of 4.0 inches.

(Jan 12, 2012 - 4.0")

(Regional Radarloop - Jan 12, 2012)

Totals from around Oshkosh range from 4.0 to 4.2 inches. A very consistent snowfall as snowfall often varies a bit from north to south in Oshkosh. The consistency continues throughout Winnebago county and the rest of the area. See image below for state wide totals (click image for more details). Don't be deceived by the purple up by Ironwood, it should really be red to orange, as Tim lists for us.

4.0 OOHW3,OSHKOSH-5 N
4.0 OSNW3,OSHKOSH-NORTH
4.2 OKHW3,OSHKOSH-WWTP
4.0 OOSW3,OSHKOSH-6 S

(Regional Snowfall Map Ending 7am Jan-13, 2012)

I was able to grab a before and after photo of the Fox River from the Congress Avenue bridge. The walk to and from the bridge was a long awaited journey. I am glad the snow is back.

(Looking Northwest - Oshkosh, WI - Jan 12, 2012)

(Looking Northwest - Oshkosh, WI - Jan 13, 2012)

The front of the house is looking more like winter as well.

(FOH - Jan 13, 2012)

2011 Weather Summary And A Winter Forecast Performance Review

2012-01-02T20:10:00.001-06:00

The final two weeks of December had the potential to create some winter weather in our area. Unfortunately we missed out on both opportunities as the systems slid south and east of Oshkosh. While the new year brought a needed taste of winter, the first half of January will trend back towards the lack luster winter weather we saw most of December. The forecast trend is based on Lezak's Recurring Cycle theory and can be found on the OSNW3 LRC blog. A performance review of the LRC based Oshkosh winter predictions I made back in November for the 'first cycle' are located farther down in this entry. The climatology summary for Decemeber is below and the summary for January can be found here.

(OSNW3 Weather Brief)
(OSNW3 December Observations)

(OSNW3 December 2011 Summary)

(click on graph for the month summary data - it will open a new tab/window)

----

Is It Winter Yet?
Nope, not by the standards we follow here at OSNW3. The definition of a 'Winter Season' is based on two distinct events. One, the First Day of Winter which represents a daily max temp equal or below 32°F and a snow depth of 1" or greater for several consecutive days. Two, the Last Day of Winter which represents a daily max temp equal or above 32°F and a snow depth less than 1" for several consecutive days. In the case of OSNW3, six(6), is used for "several" consecutive days. Below is a listing of the past five winters. Click on the years to see it in a graph.

2006-2007 lasted 62 days, Jan-20 through Mar-22
2007-2008 lasted 112 days, Dec-9 through Mar-29
2008-2009 lasted 101 days, Dec-10 through Mar-20
2009-2010 lasted 95 days, Dec-12 through Mar-16
2010-2011 lasted 95 days, Dec-18 through Mar-22
2011-2012 has not started.

----

Oshkosh Winter Prediction - Cycle 1 Performance Review
How is the winter forecast based on the LRC performing as we begin a new cycle? I will admit my thinking in November was that long term climatology would prevail and not become the preventing factor in snow production as it has been thus far. The much advertised 'split flow jet' and 'bottled up AO' are the culprits in busting my snowy predictions this cycle. As for temperatures, however, the prediction of a warmer than average winter is steadfast. Overall the middle of the atmosphere keeps on the cycling and we can look forward to the 2011-12 LRC feature patterns again and again. Below are some numbers to quantify the first cycle forecast performance.

Prediction
Days with Measurable Snow (0.1" or greater)
Cycle 1 = 13 days (Nov-16 thru Jan-2)
- Actual
- 5 days with 0.1" or greater snowfall.
- 14 days with Trace or greater snowfall.
- 38% accuracy

Prediction
Total Snow Accumulation
Cycle 1 = 16 inches of snow (Nov-16 thru Jan-2)
- Actual
- 2.4 inches of snow
- 2.18 inches of precipitation. A 10:1 snow to water ratio would have equaled 21 inches of snow had it all been snow.
- 15% accuracy

Prediction
Temperatures
The data trend leads me to believe that there will be enough warm spells to compensate for the majority of cold air events within each cycle leading to Above Average temperatures for the winter. The numbers tell me 1 to 3 degrees above average each cycle. Don't get me wrong, there will be some cold stretches this winter, there is no doubt about it, but with warm-ups scattered about may make the overall winter not seem so harsh temperature wise.
- Actual
- Daily Maximum temperatures are currently 4.5 degrees above the (81-10) 30 year average.

What should we expect in Cycle 2? The trends show a mild start to January with a cool down by the end of the month. February should continue with what we saw in much of December but hopefully this time around most of the precipitation will fall as snow. The most recent snowfall and wind event (Jan 1-2) should recur sometime around Feb-17. Sticking with the original forecast made back in November for this cycle, we should expect about 12 days with measurable snowfall accumulating around 17 inches. Temperatures should stay above average for the cycle once again. For an idea of when the precipitation may occur see the OSNW3 LRC Calendar 2011-12 and follow the blue highlighted dates. Remember to give or take a day!

----

OSNW3 2011 Summary
OSNW3 ended 2011 0.3 degrees below the Oshkosh long term annual mean temperature average (1981-2010) and 5.45 inches above the precipitation average. We recorded more cloudy days and less clear days compared to 2010. Interestingly we recorded the exact same amount of thunderstorms in 2011 as we did in 2010. Below is a month by month summary. Click here for the annual summary.
-
January :: The air was seasonal with average temperatures. Oshkosh endured one cold snap that recorded all of the below zero lows for the month. An astounding 23 of the 31 days saw a Trace or more of snowfall but the month only tallied 1.4 inches above average snowfall. The largest 24hr snowfall was 2.7 inches.

February :: More average temperatures with another short lived cold spell in the middle of the month followed by a significant warm-up. Snowfall was 13.8 inches above average. A routine LRC precipitation event turned into a *surprise snowstorm*.

March :: The start of meteorological spring brought typical late winter conditions to Oshkosh. Temperatures hovered slightly below average helping the snowpack stick around. Mid month saw a warm-up that raised max temperatures into the 50's. The fourth recurrence of the Great Lakes Cyclone (the 2010-11 LRC 'signature' storm) rewrote all the early spring notions however. The snow and cold of winter lingered into April. Monthly temperatures ended below average and snowfall ended above average.

April :: The first half of the month saw typical April type weather with many ups and downs due to a volatile atmosphere. With that came severe weather; hail, thundersnow, and a record tornado outbreak in NE WI. The thundersnow was accompanied by a top ten 24hr snowfall late in the month for Oshkosh in the month of April.

May :: A cooler than average month with three distinct warm ups and cool downs. Each warm-up raised the mercury above 80 degrees which each cool-down lowered the mercury below 40 degrees. Precipitation was below average even though the month ended with two extra days of measurable precipitation from the average.

June :: A hot start to the month was followed by an extreme cool down which lasted for the majority of the month. Precipitation was almost an inch above average. Six thunderstorms rumbled through. One brightened the evening sky with Mammatus. Highest maximum daily temperature was 93.5 degrees.

July :: The month that was a 'dog day of summer'. It was an extended heat wave that included only two very short lived periods of relief. Only one night experienced a low temperature below 60°F. Highest maximum daily temperature was 93.3 degrees. The month rendered 8 thunderstorms.

August :: Dry. Zero overcast days. The month ended 2.68 inches below average with 10 days of measurable precipitation. Maximum temperatures topped 80 degrees 16 times.

September :: The dry trends of August continued into September where 13 consecutive days recorded no measurable precipitation. The dry spell snapped however, as 10 of the 12 final days of the month recorded measurable precipitation. Near the end of the month the region was tightly wrapped in a stationary cut-off low pressure system which ushered in autumn like weather capping the seasonal downward spiral of average temperatures.

October :: A very windy start to the month wreaking havoc around the region. Door County was hit especially hard experiencing winds in excess of 60mph. After the lion like start things moderated into an Indian summer. Autumn finally set in mid month allowing a very colorful display to unfold. Dry days and cool nights ended the month.

November :: A typical transition month feel with rollercoaster temperatures leading to sporadic bouts with precipitation and an early season snowfall. Temperatures ended 2 degrees above average and precipitation 2.60 inches above average.

December :: Snow drought. December 2011 ranks 18th all-time least snowiest for Oshkosh. Temperatures ended 6 degrees above average and OSNW3 recorded the least amount of precipitation in December since genesis. There was a bright spot for snow enthusiasts during the mild and mainly snowless month however. Lake Effect Snow off of Lake Winnebago!

----

Front Of House
Snow! It likely will not stick around all that long.

(FOH - Jan 2, 2012)

One Measurable Snowfall in the First 18 Days of December

2011-12-18T14:40:00.004-06:00

The main weather headline around these parts is the lack of snow. One measurable snowfall in the first 18 days. It is something we haven't witnessed at OSNW3 since we began recording climate data back in November 2006. However, when it comes to averages, it is expected to trend the opposite way after an all-time record setting monthly snowfall in 2008. For snow enthusiasts there is light at the end of the tunnel as snow chances do exist in the final two weeks of the month. For a basic overview of the chances of snow remaining this month visit the OSNW3 LRC analysis blog or get modelitis by visiting the OSNW3 Weather Breif below.

(OSNW3 Weather Brief)
(OSNW3 December Observations)

(OSNW3 December 2011 Summary)

(click on graph for the month summary data - it will open a new tab/window)

----

December Snows
With one tenth of snow measured so far this month it is easy to imagine where this month ranks all-time in snowfall. There are seven Decembers that recorded no snow but three of the those seven came up with zero snowfall observations. The accuracy of those months are in question. Overall climatology for December in Oshkosh click here.

(Oshkosh December Montly Snowfall Rankings)

(click on image for entire data set - it will open a new tab/window)

----

Weekly Snowfall
We recorded one tenth of an inch of snow in the early morning hours of Dec 17.

(Dec 17, 2011 - 0.1")

----

Front Of House
Gearing up for some snow.

(FOH - Dec 18, 2011)

A Near Miss, Lake Effect Snow, And A Look Back At Meteorological Autumn

2011-12-04T15:25:00.007-06:00

What could have been. The annual first week of December storm was in full effect for all of WI, but the case for the eastern portions of the state in 2011 was rain with temps in the 40s. Year after year a storm works it's way into the western Great Lakes the first week of December. Most notable in recent history is Dec 2, 2007. Clicking the links below will open the daily climate for December for that particular year. A radar loop is obtainable by clicking the linked daily weather description. 200612, 200712, 200812, 200912, 201012.

(Snowfall Analysis ending 7am Dec 4, 2011)

We should all be aware that when this storm recurs around Jan 20, 2012 our area could be in the bullseye for the snowfall. Let's hope so! It could make for a snowy Conference Championship game at Lambeau!

(OSNW3 Weather Brief)
(OSNW3 December Observations)

(OSNW3 December 2011 Summary)

(click on graph for the month summary data - it will open a new tab/window)

----

Lake Winnebago Lake Effect Snow
A very rare event took place the night of Dec 2, 2011. A small band of lake effect snow formed off of Lake Winnebago. I can confirm the Winnebago Lake Effect Snow event, however I have to do it without photos unfortunately. There was about a tenth to two tenths of an inch of snow that fell in North Fond Du Lac along highway 45. It provided a nice coating on cars and flat surfaces. Below is a radar snapshot from the Weather Watch 12 team of WISN12 in Milwaukee, and a radar loop from Intellicast. Click images for larger views.

Unfortunately the North Fond Du Lac observer was unable to submit a report the morning of Dec 2 but there was a report from the southwest portion of the city.

FCDW3 FOND DU LAC FOND DU LAC-2 SW 36 19 0.06 0.3(snow) T

----

Meteorological Autumn
For what seemed like a dry Autumn in 2011 it is actually the 22nd wettest in Oshkosh history. Weather records for Oshkosh date back to 1893. Click image for a larger view.

----

Front Of House
A snowless December landscape

(FOH - Dec 4, 2011)

2011-12 Oshkosh Winter Forecast Based On The LRC

2011-11-25T15:00:00.010-06:00

I first heard about Lezak's Recurring Cycle theory in early October of 2010 from WISN12's Jeremy Nelson. My initial thoughts were that it was too good to be true. Then it happened, I was convinced after one in-depth analysis that it indeed existed. I will admit it didn't take long for me to buy in and afterwards I wondered why I hadn't heard about it before. A little over a year later and an extreme amount of hours dedicated to research and analysis, following the theory has grown into a passion. To this day I endorse the theory to my fullest capacity.

Caught up in all the hype and excitement of learning more about the LRC last winter I attempted a backyard snowfall forecast. Little did I realize that this endeavor would be the proverbial tip of the iceberg. Following the LRC for the past year has led me down a path of constant learning about the upper atmosphere and how it affects the weather on the surface. The benefits of following the theory and thus knowing the likely weather and climate scenarios weeks and months ahead of time are boundless.

In 2011 the OSNW3 backyard snowfall forecast has evolved into a Oshkosh Winter Forecast pin pointing specific weather events and surface weather trends for the area. An exciting project only truly conceivable because of the LRC.

----

Again, What Is The LRC?
The ’LRC’ which stands for Lezak’s Recurring Cycle is a weather pattern theory based on the following:

* A unique weather pattern sets up every year between October and November
* The weather pattern cycles, repeats, and continues through winter, spring and into summer.
* Long term long-wave troughs and ridges become established and also repeat at regular times within the cycle. These dominant repeating features are a clue to where storm systems will reach peak strength, and where they will be their weakest.
* The LRC isn’t just one long-wave trough, storm system, or ridge. It is a sequence of troughs and ridges that are cycling across the Northern Hemisphere.

To put this in very simple terms, the weather pattern that occurs in October and November repeats thru the winter, spring, and into summer. The cycle length will vary each year.

----

The Forecast
No reason to reiterate any more words of Jeremy Nelson of WISN12 or Gary Lezak of LRC Weather. With the cycle duration in clear sites, the cycling weather patterns will now do what they do. Please visit Jeremy's and Gary's winter forecast, linked below, as they dissect the long term long wave troughs and ridges that will be our weather until summer!

Weather Watch 12
LRC Weather

To create the 2011-12 Oshkosh winter forecast I am leaning on all of my rookie year experiences following the LRC. The main focus being the affect the atmospheric flow 18,000 feet above the earth has on the OSNW3 recorded surface data throughout the seasons and each cycle of the LRC. The predictions below are based on a 46-48 day cycle duration. Shrinking and expanding of the duration will take place as the seasons move along.

Disclaimer: It is understood that the weather can change instantly and despite my best attempts to understand the weather patterns my weather predictions might be incorrect.

Notable Weather Events
Cycle 1 (now thru Jan-2)
-Early Dec Cold
-Late Dec Snowstorm/Cold
-New Year Warm-up
Cycle 2 (Jan-3 thru Feb-19)
-Mid Jan Warm-up
-Late Jan/Early Feb Cold
-Mid Feb Snowstorm/Cold
-Mid Feb Warm-up
Cycle 3 (Feb-20 thru Apr-7)
-Early Mar Warm-up
-Late Mar/Early Apr Snowstorm/Cold
-Early Apr Warm-up (spring clean-up)
Cycle 4 (Apr-8 thru May-25)
-Early May Flakes (chilly start to golf leagues)

Events are open to deeper daily analysis queries if desired. This leads into the main focus of any winter forecast. Snowfall!

Days with Measurable Snow
C1 = 13 (now thru Jan-2)
C2 = 12 (Jan-3 thru Feb-19)
C3 = 4 (Feb-20 thru Apr-7)
C4 = 2 (Apr-8 thru May-25)
Season = 31 (including the Nov-9 snowfall)
*9 days above average (1981-2010)

Total Snow Accumulation
C1 = 16" (now thru Jan-2)
C2 = 17" (Jan-3 thru Feb-19)
C3 = 9" (Feb-20 thru Apr-7)
C4 = 1" (Apr-8 thru May-25)
Season = 45" (includes 2.1 from early Nov-9)
*11 inches above average (1981-2010)

Temperatures
The data trend leads me to believe that there will be enough warm spells to compensate for the majority of cold air events within each cycle leading to Above Average temperatures for the winter. The numbers tell me 1 to 3 degrees above average each cycle. Don't get me wrong, there will be some cold stretches this winter, there is no doubt about it, but with warm-ups scattered about may make the overall winter not seem so harsh temperature wise.

----

On Going Analysis and LRC Based Products
I am determined and focused on providing a different way of seeing the cycle. I have plans that include time-lapse and graphical grids. Besides that, I will keep up to date the forecast trends, calendar, and activity in the AccuWeather LRC Forum. The AccuWeather LRC Forum is a great place to exchange ideas and to continue learning the theory. I recommend it. The 2011-12 Forecast Trends are located below and are permanently located on the lower right hand side of the OSNW3|LRC blog. The 2011-12 LRC Calendar can be found here and in the LRC Analysis Tools section on the upper right hand side of the OSNW3|LRC blog. The trends are based on a 48 day cycle duration. The trending duration may be retracted or extended later on in the year as the cycle breathes if required to keep continuity.

(500mb Forecast Trend For Green Bay)

(Maximum Temperature Forecast Trend For Oshkosh)

If there are any questions or thoughts on my research and analysis of the LRC or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. Thanks for reading!

A November Deluge & An Early First One Inch Snowfall

2011-11-13T14:50:00.018-06:00

Oshkosh received a down right deluge of precipitation Nov-7 through Nov-10. The area has not recorded that much precipitation in the entire month since 2003. The snow that accompanied the deluge is one of the earliest first one inch snowfalls since 1980. Impressive weather and climate as of late.

(OSNW3 Weather Brief)
(OSNW3 November Observations)

(OSNW3 November 2011 Summary)

(click on graph for the month summary data - it will open a new tab/window)

-----

Oshkosh November Precipitation
Since the inception of OSNW3 we have never come close to recording this much precipitation in the month of November. As of the 7am hour on Nov-13 we have measured 4.26 inches of precipitation. The next most is 1.91 inches back in 2006. With a little over a half of the month to go, OSNW3 ranks 10th all-time in Oshkosh history for the most precipitation in the month of November. Precipitation records for Oshkosh date back to 1893.

(Oshkosh Precipitation Rank - November)

(click on image for entire data set - it will open a new tab/window)

----

Oshkosh First 1" Snowfalls
To most Oshkosh folks the snowfall that graced the landscape this past week was not a surprise. However, since 1980, one maybe hard pressed to remember when snow accumulated more than an inch this early in November. Off the top of my head, I could not remember. So I dug into it. Since 1980 the snow that fell in my backyard the days of Nov-9/10 is tied for the 4th earliest. It just so happens that back in 2006 two inches of snow fell in similar fashion on Nov-10/11, only without the deluge preceding it.

(Oshkosh First 1" Snowfalls Since 1980)

(click on image for entire data set - it will open a new tab/window)

I would like to clarify that the date the snowfall is tied to is the day the 24 hour observation period ended. In most cases the snow fell the day before. Official observations are recorded for a 24 hour period, 7am to 7am.

----

Front Of House
We still had snow on the ground and leaves as of Nov-12. Some raking still needs to take place. Leaves with snow on them become too heavy to move. I will wait until they dry. I often use the FOH photo to see things that need maintenance in the front yard. Looks like the "1" on my house number has lost it's top support. *sheesh*

The OSNW3 backyard snowfall forecast based on Lezak's Recurring Cycle theory is due out the week of Thanksgiving. The forecast in 2011-12 will evolve into a Oshkosh Winter Forecast pin pointing specific weather events and trends. It will also be open to deeper daily analysis queries if desired by readers. I am eagerly anticipating this project!

(FOH - Nov 10, 2011)

First Snowfall 2011-12 Winter

2011-11-10T13:00:00.006-06:00

The first winter storm of the season in Wisconsin dumped heavy, wet snow across the central and northeast part of the state. A band of 6 to 9 inches fell from the Waupaca area to Florence. The highest amount measured by an official NWS observer was 9.2 inches near Long Lake in Florence County. More info can be found here.

----
Measurements (4)
----

Nov 9, 2011 @ 9:54am
Oshkosh was under a Winter Weather Advisory. Early morning moderate to heavy rain fell. The rain turned to sleet. Sleet fell for an hour or two until a dry slot moved into the area. While is stopped precipitating I took a measurement.

0.2" - New Snow/Sleet
0.2" - Total Storm Snow/Sleet
Current Snow Depth - Trace

----

Nov 9, 2011 @ 2:28pm
The precipitation turned to all snow around 1pm. After an hour and half of snowfall I took a another measurement. I recorded 1.3" of new snow bringing the storm total to 1.5" of frozen precipitation.

1.3" - New Snow
1.5" - Total Storm Snow/Sleet
Current Snow Depth - 2"

----

Nov 9, 2011 @ 3:45pm
Another 0.3" was measured as I was on my way out. No time for photos unfortunately.

0.3" - New Snow
1.8" - Total Storm Snow/Sleet
Current Snow Depth - 2"

----

Nov 10, 2011 @ 7:51am
The temperature jumped a few degrees and the snow changed back over to a snow/sleet/rain mix later in the evening. As far as frozen precip goes a total of 1.8" was measured throughout the day, 0.2" of that was all sleet early on. Overnight another 0.3" of snowfall fell and was measured at end of the 24 hour observation period.

0.3" - New Snow
2.1" - Total Storm Snow/Sleet
Current Snow Depth - 2"

----

Storm Totals
1.45" of liquid precipitation was recorded at end of the 24 hour observation period on Nov-10, bringing the 3-Day total to 3.24". It gives us the wettest Nov since genesis of OSNW3 (Nov-1, 2006). 4.24" of precip in the first ten days. Annual Precipitation

Winnebago County Nov-9 storm totals (Liquid , Snow)
1.10" , 0.5" - Oshkosh WWTP (NWS Official)
0.86" , 3.0" - Oshkosh 5.6 S
1.45" , 2.1" - OSNW3 | Oshkosh - North
0.71" , 0.2" - Oshkosh 5.2 N
1.14" , 3.1" - Omro 2.3 WSW
1.15" , 3.5" - Omro SSE
1.10" , 1.0" - Neenah

(Storm Radar Loop)

A timelapse of the storm from the vantage point of the OSNW3 webcam can be found here.

Autumn Has Taken Hold

2011-10-26T22:50:00.010-05:00

The cool and crisp feeling of Autumn is finally being felt here at OSNW3. It took a while. We have yet to dip below the freezing mark, however. Fairly soon though we will be adding the 2011 date to the Winter History page.

(**First Freeze took place on Oct-28)

The later it comes, the better in my opinion. Only because recent climate trends show more snow falls in winter when the first cold blast takes place a couple weeks later than average. The average first freeze in Oshkosh is Oct 12 (1981-2010). This year has more climatological posibility since it is another La Nina year. A comparison for Oshkosh winters during La Nina is below.

"For the second winter in a row, La Niña will influence weather patterns across the country, but as usual, it’s not the only climate factor at play. The ‘wild card’ is the lesser-known and less predictable Arctic Oscillation that could produce dramatic short-term swings in temperatures this winter." Read more here.

With that said, when it comes to predicting the weather my confidence lies with Lezak's Recurring Cycle theory. No matter the ENSO condition, following the LRC allows one to make accurate long range forecasts. This being my sophomore year following the LRC I plan to take a bold step and create a winter/spring forecast for Oshkosh. It will include snowfall amounts, temperature trends, and event specific time frames all based on the LRC. I plan to publish something around Thanksgiving. For more information on the LRC please click here. For a forecast now, and tomorrow and the coming weekend, check out the OSNW3 Weather Brief below.

(OSNW3 Weather Brief)
(OSNW3 October Observations)

(OSNW3 October 2011 Summary)

(click on graph for the month summary data - it will open a new tab/window)

----

Oshkosh La Nina Comparison (Updated 2011)
What does La Nina mean for Northeast Wisconsin and Oshkosh specifically? I did some digging and documented the results for Oshkosh. Results are below.

Oshkosh Climate Stats
Since the winter of 1949-50, Oshkosh:

* In La Niña winters: averages 49.0" of snow
* In all other winters: averages 38.6" of snow
* Overall: averages 43.8" of snow

On the bottom graph, you can see a running total trend for snowfall for the winter months since 1949-50 in Oshkosh. Through December, snowfall in La Niña months tends to be pretty close to overall averages. However, from January through March is when the snowfall tends to be above normal.

If you consider a winter snowfall within 7 inches of the mean to be "average", then only 4 of the 20 La Niña winters saw below average snowfall, with 5 average, and 12 above average. When the Oceanic Nino Index (ONI, sea-surface temperature anomalies in the Nino 3.4 Region) has been -1.0C or lower - indicating a moderate or strong La Niña - half of those winters saw 49 inches or more of snow in Oshkosh.

The last 5 winters have seen above average snowfall in Oshkosh (DJF - 25.3" 1981-2010). The winter of 2005-2006 saw 32.0 inches of snow. Oshkosh ended below 30 inches for winters of 2002 through 2005 when the totals were 23.0, 27.2, 26.2 inches respectively. Data set located here.

I then compared the meteorological winter, Dec-Jan-Feb, eliminating the transition months of Oct, Nov, Mar, and Apr from above. I found that the strongest seasons of the ONI index were not always big snow producers. That is especially true when the index is strong coming into October. It tends to deepen some throughout the winter but Oshkosh lacks the big snow totals. Average snowfall when a Jul-Sep index is -1 or deeper is 28.0", only two plus inches above the average Oshkosh winter.

(Oshkosh La Nina Winter)

More Met Winter Info:
Meteorological Winter Total Snowfall List
Meteorological Winter Total Snowfall Graphs

----

Predictions for OSNW3's Winter
Winter is just around the corner and each season predictions are made for the first 1" snowfall, the first "actual" day of Winter, and the total snowfall for the season at OSNW3. Below is how it breaks down.

Predict the:
First 1" snowfall at OSNW3. (submit by Oct-31)
First "actual" day of Winter at OSNW3. (submit by Oct-31)
Seasonal snowfall at OSNW3. (submit by Dec-1)

Climate data and info to help you choose.
Lezak's Recurring Cycle Theory @ OSNW3
OSNW3 Winter Firsts and Lasts:
OSNW3 Winter definitions of "actual"

Current Predictions:
joshherman - October 23, 2011 at 10:20:18 pm
Dec 9 - First 1" snowfall at OSNW3
Dec 17 - First "actual" day of Winter at OSNW3

DoubleJ - October 25, 2011 at 12:23:23 pm
Nov 28 - First 1" Snowfall
Dec 12 - First Actual Winter Day

In past years all three guesses were to be submitted by Oct-31, however this year I felt the seasonal snowfall should be delayed until Dec-1 so participants could utilize the LRC and potentially have a basis for the final guess. Please feel free to make a prediction. The more the merrier!

----

Front Of House
Slowly buy surely we are losing the leaves. I have failed to capture a photo of the FOH and TAS since Oct-15. I will grab one soon and update because things look different now than they did 10+ days ago. I did measure some hail on Oct-25 at 12:25pm in Neenah, WI. 3/4" almost! Largest I've ever personally measured. Was only able to capture the event with my phone and I have yet to transfer the video but it was coming down hard for a couple minutes semi-covering the pavement before it almost instantly melted.

(FOH - Oct 15, 2011)

(FOH - Oct 29, 2011)

(TAS - Oct 15, 2011)

(TAS - Oct 29, 2011)

Serotonin Overload?

2011-10-09T14:15:00.022-05:00

Perhaps. I've got a few cognitive symptoms: agitation (seasonal allergies), hypomania (feels like I am on the 'summer' schedule yet), mental confusion (it's autumn, right?), hallucinations (thought that was a cloud, nope, just contrails). But seriously, we haven't had a cloudy day in quite some time. As a matter of fact the first 216 hours or so of October sky observation have been mainly clear. No quantitative numbers for this statement, just my gut feel. Some numbers that are real however are the ones that describe our lack of precipitation. Only three hundredths of an inch have fallen in October and we are on pace once again to crack the top five longest dry spells at OSNW3. With the new LRC forming we are forced to follow the computer models for a long range query. The CPC predicts a continuation of above average temperature and below average precipitation. Similar to last year at this time. In the short term however, expect a cool down with chances of rain. For more information on the forecast click the OSNW3 Weather Brief link below.

(OSNW3 Weather Brief)
(OSNW3 October Observations)

(OSNW3 October 2011 Summary)

(click on graph for the month summary data - it will open a new tab/window)

----

Front Of House
Autumn of 2011 will officially be in the tops on my list of most colorful. Everywhere in WI that I have been in the past two weeks I have witnessed breath taking color. Exceptional. Not as exceptional are the photos below. The FOH is slow to change compared to the TAS which will be leaf less in just a few days.

(FOH - Oct 7, 2011 | Previous Year Compare 2009, 2010)

(TAS - Oct 7, 2011 | Previous Year Compare 2009, 2010)

Winds & Waves - Door County, WI

2011-10-02T15:15:00.012-05:00

Discussions during the days leading up to Sep 30 revolved around forecasts for central and eastern south shores of Lake Superior being targeted for extreme winds and waves and the idea that I planned to visit Marquette, MI to capture as much of the event as I could. Turns out the time I had available wasn't enough for a trip to the UP. Instead I choose to take a trip to the Door County Peninsula.

(My route to Door County)

My initial thoughts were to adventure along the Peninsula State Park shoreline but when I arrived the park was closed and was to remain closed until further notice. My plan was derailed but the Door County Peninsula never disappoints if one is patient in finding the right spot. I continued north through Sister Bay, Ellison Bay and Gills Rock for a final destination of Kenosha Park, the very top of the Peninsula. This wind event left many roads throughout Door County impassable and many residents and businesses powerless from Carlsville to Fish Creek. A local business woman told me there was a 60mph gust in Fish Creek the night before. It was evident all throughout Door County that a very powerful wind storm had pushed through.

(One of the many downed trees)

When I reached Kenosha Park I was greeted with the wind and wave scene I was searching for. I quickly climbed down the cliff to the rocky shore and began snapping photos and taking videos.

(Kenosha Park)

(Kenosha Park Beach)

(Kenosha Park)

After an hour at Kenosha Park it was time to head back to Oshkosh, but on the way back I decided to stop in Sister Bay to get a glimpse of the winds and waves in the harbor. It certainly was worth the extra half hour.

(Sister Bay Harbor)

(Sister Bay Harbor)

During the day of Sep 30 the storm was moving out and the windy conditions were beginning to wane. The storm peaked the previous night, Sep 29. Needless to the say the storm was still packing a punch. When this part of the pattern repeats near the end of fall it could certainly be another dandy. Below are a few maps to give an idea of the magnitude of the event.

(500mb Plot)

(Surface Analysis)

(Satellite)

(Radarloop)

More photos and videos can be found by clicking on the links.

Near Stationary Cut-off Low

2011-09-26T11:55:00.004-05:00

I took the opportunity to get out in the elements with mother nature as the area faced it's first real taste of a fall storm system. The nearly stationary low blew consistent northeasterly winds the morning of Sep 26. Gusts close to 30 mph stirred Lake Winnebago initiating a moderate wave event on it's western shores.

Some Photos. (Sep 26, 2011)

Some Videos. 4 new ones. (Sep 26, 2001)

The precipitation from this low pressure thus far has tallied 1.23", dropping measurable precipitation on six of seven days. The NWS GRB labeled it as 'pesky', I guess after seven days it could become a bit pesky. Overall though, the weather hasn't been all that nasty. Sep 26 was really the only harsh day. To view the radar loop of the storm entering into the US and then deciding to cut off, click here. (20MB)

Once it turned from cloudy, raining, and windy to sunny and calm on Sep 26, I captured this satellite image. Impressive.

The End Of A Dry Spell & New 30 Year Averages

2011-09-21T11:20:00.006-05:00

The morning of Sep-19, after 13 consecutive days, we finally recorded measurable precipitation. Most will think that 13 days without measurable precipitation is just the tip of the iceberg, but here in the western portion of the Great Lakes basin we seldom deal with such longevity. Since the genesis of OSNW3, back on Nov 1, 2006, we've recorded just 8 streaks of 13 or more days without measurable precipitation, just 7% of the time. For more information see graph and list below. (day of the streak end is listed)

4 streaks of 13 days
Sep-18, 2011
Apr-2, 2010
Nov-18, 2009
Sep-29, 2008

2 streaks of 17 days
Oct-20, 2010
Apr-18, 2009

1 streak of 19 days
Feb-23, 2007

1 streak of 21 days
Sep-20, 2009

These types of streaks do not always lead to drought situations, but with the recent lack of precipitation in the past two months some of Wisconsin is now in a slight drought situation. The recent rain may have helped as most around the state recorded up to a half an inch or more. Below is a map of the 90 day precipitation deficits from the NWS LaCrosse, click image for more information.

----

The New 30 Year Average - 1981-2010
Comparing the average temperatures between 1971-2000 and 1981-2010, all but the maximum temps in May, Jun, and Jul have increased. The rest just over a half of degree. The annual mean average temperature is now 0.6 degrees warmer. Precipitation wise, numbers dropped a tenth of an inch but added almost 4 days to the total of days with measurable precipitation. The snowfall department changed dramatically, however. Losing almost 8 inches from the seasonal snowfall amount and taking away a little over 4 days of measurable snowfall. No longer having the 1970s in the mix makes a claim of a much lesser average seasonal snowfall. 1970-79 was a snowy decade, especially 77-79.

(Oshkosh Seasonal Snowfall - Averages 71-00/81-10 Comparison)

(Oshkosh Seasonal Snowfall - 1970-2011)

The new 30 year averages from the NWS GRB can be found in the NOWData section of their site.

----

Front Of House
Not much happening except for the seasonal change to Autumn, and a new LRC cycle to happen upon us. My most favorite time of the year.

(FOH - Sep 19, 2011)

(TAS - Sep 19, 2011)

How Was Your Summer?

2011-09-04T23:20:00.007-05:00

OSNW3 Meteorological Summer Statistics

Precipitation
In 2010 OSNW3 ranked second all-time for the wettest meteorological summer in Oshkosh history with 20.41 inches falling during the months of June, July, and August. In 2011 OSNW3 measured 10.36 inches coming in 44th all-time. 0.23 inches below the all-time average of 10.59 inches for the 103 years of data without a missing precipitation observation during the meteorological summer months. This particular data may come across like we had a 'dry' summer, but on 36 days we here at OSNW3 recorded measurable precipitation. Just short of the top ten, coming in at 11th for the most days with measurable precipitation all-time. Providing a some what active three months. More meteorological summer precipitation numbers can be found by clicking the image below. Annual precipitation numbers can be found here.

(Oshkosh Meteorological Summer - Precipitation)

Temperature
Here at OSNW3, 2011 finished 0.9 degrees cooler than 2010, ranking 28th warmest all-time. That 0.9 degrees separates the two summers by 15 places in history. Our mean temp in 2011 was 70.7 degrees with a MaxT Mean of 79.7 degrees and a MinT Mean of 61.7 degrees. One occurrence that may have made this summer feel warmer than last summer was the fact that the temp topped 90 degrees three times, while in 2010 the temp stayed below 90 degrees. Any day with 90 degrees or above temps around here is certainly a scorcher as it is usually accompanied with very high dew points making the air very uncomfortable for us Wisconsinites. July was the most extreme of the three months handing us an 84.2 degree MaxT Mean for the month and a 66.0 degree MinT Mean for the month. The month of July fit the definition of a 'dog day' here at OSNW3. However, regardless of the July heat, the numbers do not lie. 2011 ended cooler than 2010 no matter how hot it actually felt. More meteorological summer temperature numbers can be found by clicking the image below.

(Oshkosh Meteorological Summer - Temperature)

Dog Days of Summer
How many 'dog days' does 2011 have left in it? One more, perhaps? I would bet against it happening again if my following of Lezak's Recurring Cycle theory is on track. We may break 80 degrees one more time near the end of September, but I do not think high dew points will keep overnight lows above 65 degrees again in 2011.

(OSNW3 - 2011 Dog Days of Summer)

(OSNW3 - Dog Days of Summer)

For more data on June, July, and August of 2011 follow the links below. If there any weather or climate related questions or suggestions feel free to leave them in the comments section of the blog. Thanks for reading!

June (month summary)
July (month summary)
August (month summary)

----

Remember the first week of September in 2010?
It was a great week for wind, waves, and cool temps around Winnebagoland. For a closer look see the OSNW3 post "Early Autumn Heavyweights" posted back on Sep 10, 2010. A couple of 'global' features that stand out in the satellite loops in the post are the hurricanes that are taking place in similar positions Earl and Hermine as they have recently like Irene and Lee. For a reminder of what 2010 was like here at OSNW3, click here for the annual summary.

Another Dry August

2011-08-25T22:30:00.013-05:00

August is nearing it's end and we here in Oshkosh have had yet another below average August in the precipitation department. A recurring theme the past four years. OSNW3 is currently 2.92 inches below the Oshkosh average (1971-2000) precipitation for the month of August, just 29% of average. The forecast for the remainder of August doesn't provide much of a chance of raising that percentage either.

(OSNW3 Weather Brief)
(OSNW3 August Observations)

(OSNW3 August 2011 Summary)

(click on graph for the month summary data - it will open a new tab/window)

----

Precipitation Totals Through Aug 25, 2011
Our surplus of precipitation is taking a hit this August. Down almost three inches since July from 6.17 inches of surplus precipitation to 3.25 inches of surplus precipitation. It's evident in the surroundings, our grass is turning brown and the trees are starting to quickly lose their green. Dry conditions with cool nights will certainly speed the foliage changing process. We could be in store for a vibrant fall color season.

(OSNW3 Precipitation - Monthly)

(OSNW3 Precipitation - Annual)

----

Queen City of the North
We visited Marquette, MI last weekend (Aug 19-21) which just happened to be the weekend that the 'signature' storm of the LRC was returning. Warm southerly winds and thunderstorms in the area on Aug 19, cooler with northwest winds on Aug 20-21. On Aug 19 we hit up Little Presque Isle, Aug 20 we hit up Presque Isle and an adjacent beach, Aug 21 we hit up Presque Isle again and then Dead River Falls. As always a fantastic trip. Love Marquette. More photos can be found here.

(Atop Little Presque Isle)

(Presque Isle)

(Dead River Falls)

----

Front Of House
Things are certainly browning up around here. I have updated the OSNW3 webcam noon images. With my neighbors huge growth in the garden, watching the images in a slideshow is like watching a cheap version of a Planet Earth scene of plant growth. Pretty cool. I also updated FOH images. There is an update over at the OSNW3|LRC blog as well.

(FOH - Aug 25, 2011)

The Truth of a Heat Wave

2011-07-23T23:45:00.017-05:00

It is insane when a temperature of 90 degrees and a dew point of 70 degress brings on a feeling of relief. In Wisconsin this feeling only takes place during an extended heat wave in the middle of summer. That is exactly where we are at. We've been doing our best to keep hydrated and keep the sunscreen applied while outdoors. As for being inside the house we feel very fortunate to have central air to keep things comfortable. Looking ahead there might be a 24 hour period early next week that provides some relief from the heat, but the heat will return and stay with us for another extended period of time. Anyone following the LRC theory (Lezak's Recurring Cycle) knew the recent warmth was coming with great potential to provide extreme summer weather. This part of the pattern has been documented thoroughly via LRC Weather, WeatherWatch12, and even here at OSNW3. This coming week is the pattern feature that brought us our first heatwave of the summer back in early June. The repeat looks to be a little less extreme than I had originally thought back on Jun-9 as it is taking on a look like it's predecessors from late winter and early spring, but never the less it is recurring and will be continuing the heat and humidity making the month of July a wonderful summer month for those still remembering our prolonged winter and cool spring.

(OSNW3 Weather Brief)
(OSNW3 July Observations)

(OSNW3 July 2011 Summary)

(click on graph for the month summary data - it will open a new tab/window)

----

The Dog Day That Will Not End
Over the past 8 days the max temp has averaged 87.7 degrees, the min temp has averaged 69.3 degrees, and the max dew point has averaged 74.2 degrees. The combination of each data point creates a hot and sticky situation. I like to define these types of days as "dog days". If our max temp exceeds 80 and our min temp stays above 65 on any given day, that day qualifies as a "dog day". We are well on our way to be competing with the numbers of last summer. OSNW3 Dog Days 2007-2011

(OSNW3 - Dog Days thru Jul 23, 2011)

OSNW3 Dog Days - 2010
OSNW3 Dog Days - 2009
OSNW3 Dog Days - 2008
OSNW3 Dog Days - 2007

On a side note, since 1893, Oshkosh has endured streaks of 25+ days where the maximum temperature was 80+ degrees 8 times; 1908, 1919, 1921, 1930, 1963, 1966, 1983, and 1988. The longest streak took place in 1921, Jun 16 thru Jul 31, a whopping 46 days. During that period the average max temp was 90.7 and the average min temp was 66.5. It's average was a "dog day" by definition. Talk about hot.

----

Front Of House
We are deep into summer now. I hope the hundreds of thousands of folks that visit the EAA this coming week find ways to stay cool. Click here for an Oshkosh weather brief, all links are provided by the National Weather Service. Speaking of the NWS, check out my new golf ball markers. Thank you NWSGA!

(FOH - Jul 23, 2011)

Summer is in Full Swing

2011-07-04T19:10:00.001-05:00

Our recent pattern has included this years 'signature' storm, the infamous 'Great Lakes Cyclone', and it's passing. With the jet stream weakening and lifting north the potency of this feature in our area has faded. For warm weather enthusiasts it is a good thing as the cool air that followed each instance this winter and early spring will not reoccur. Instead temperatures should hold around average for this time of year. As the patterns continue to cycle however, I have a sneaky feeling that the setup for what was our first heat wave in early June will show up again near the end of July giving us a chance at a string of extremely hot days. We'll see. For a detailed look back at June click here.

(OSNW3 Weather Brief)
(OSNW3 July Observations)

(OSNW3 July 2011 Summary)

(click on graph for the month summary data - it will open a new tab/window)

----

Precipitation Totals Through June
As we move beyond the half way point of 2011 here at OSNW3 we have recorded 19.57 inches of precipitation. Through June it's the second highest for this time of year since we started recording data. Currently we stand with 73 days with measurable precipitation, which if matched would put us at 146 days for the year. That number would be the most ever recorded at OSNW3. Below are graphical representations of our annual precipitation.

(OSNW3 Precipitation - Monthly)

(OSNW3 Precipitation - Annual)

----

WIBN6 Update
A doe and it's fawns have been hanging around my Mother's back yard the past couple weeks. On Jun 24 I was able to photograph them. Both of their names are Bambi, of course.

(Fawns at WIBN6 - Jun 24, 2011)

----

Front Of House
Typical summer like conditions lately have helped the garden start to fill in. It is already yielding some lettuce, which is nice. I've cut the grass a hand full of times but have lost count. Looking forward to some rounds of golf where protection from the rain isn't required.

(FOH - Jul 2, 2011)

Schools Out For Summer!

2011-06-13T15:20:00.017-05:00

Looking at the OSNW3 monthly summary graphs it is evident we've had our ups and downs this year. The pattern has kept cycling, continuing the trend, just as it should. Thus far in June we've had seven days above 80 degrees, but yet remain a little more than a degree below average. We are entering the wetter pattern of this years LRC and we should expect increased chances of precipitation for the next two weeks. The CPC agrees with this idea as well. Keep up to date with the latest forecast by visiting the OSNW3 Weather Brief linked below. For a May summary click here.

(OSNW3 Weather Brief)
(OSNW3 June Observations)

(OSNW3 June 2011 Summary)

(click on graph for the month summary data - it will open a new tab/window)

----

Cloud Appreciation
The Cloud Appreciation Society was introduced to me a few years back and it's not often I get to shoot clouds that are unique and worthy of sharing. However, as severe weather rolled just south of Oshkosh we were given a great sunset cloud scape. Mammatus!

(Mammatus - Jun 8, 2011)

----

Temperatures: 60°+
A follow up to the previous blog entry and recorded temperatures above 60 degrees between Oct 1 and May 31. The above 60 degree tally sky rocketed as expected since May 15. Yet this year still remains the least amount of them since I starting recording data at OSNW3. 43 days experienced max temps above 60 degrees between Oct 1, 2010 and May 31, 2011. For previous years, see this blog entry.

(Days Above 60° Oct 1, 2010 - May 31, 2011)

----

Front Of House
Things are in full bloom around here. A very green and colorful part of the year. Gotta give props to the crew at Lakeshore Municipal Golf Course here in Oshkosh. Their environmentally friendly tactics at maintaining their golf course have proven to provide the residents of Oshkosh and beyond a truly great golf experience. The conditions this year are by far the best I've played on in all my years living in Oshkosh. Also, this week commences summer break for area K-12 teachers and students, enjoy the summer y'all!

(FOH - Jun 13, 2011)

(Backyard - Jun 13, 2011)

Great Lakes Cyclone V & A Spring Temperature Comparison

2011-05-15T22:40:00.005-05:00

The fifth iteration of the 'signature' storm in this years LRC introduced Oshkosh to it's first bout with summer time heat and humidity. That summer feeling lasted a day. Nothing new though as this is how it has been since November. The cycling pattern teasing folks with a glimmer of warmer times ahead. We are now so far into spring that it is just a matter of time until a smaller temperature contrast between the north pole and the equator creates a weaker jet and summer takes hold in our region. With this thought in mind it is worth mentioning that following the LRC one knows that our region should expect a potent warm-up near the end of the month. This thinking is still on track and if one would enjoy following this part of the 2010-11 LRC through its fruition please visit the WeatherWatch12 blog as Jeremy Nelson will provide many opportunities for learning and opinion sharing.

(OSNW3 Weather Brief)
(OSNW3 May Observations)

(OSNW3 May 2011 Summary)

(click on graph for the month summary data - it will open a new tab/window)

----

Great Lakes Cyclone V
It's a theme I have dragged through the mud all season. Calling the 'signature' storm the 'Great Lakes Cyclone'. Why stop now. Personal records and first time weather did take place with this recurrence as it has each and every time through the cycle. For me, I was able to record the largest waves I've ever witnessed on this side of Lake Winnebago. For the area, we enjoyed our first day with 80+ degree temps and 60+ degree dewpoints. Our old pal MarkMartin, who is an OSNW3 precipitation observer and severe weather spotter, shared a photo he took of the sky during the beginning stages of the invading maritime tropical air and moisture. "The MAMMATUS effect was lost as the cloud cover increased, however, I think I got a nice shot looking toward the East". Thank you for sharing MM!

(Clouds In Oshkosh - May 9, 2011)

(Waves on Winnebago - May 15, 2011)

The temperature at the house when we left for the lake was 48 degrees. On the shore it felt more like 40 degrees or less. Winds were whipping! We were bundled up like it was winter. A video of the waves can be found here.

----

Temperatures: 60°+
Our noticeably cool start to spring prompted me to again count the number of days between Oct 1 and May 31 with maximum temperatures topping 60 degrees. I like to compare the dates of Oct 1 through May 31 because, in my opinion, it is our extended transition in and out of Winter here in WI. Through May 15, 2011 we here at OSNW3 have recorded 32 days since Oct 1, 2010. Dissecting the graphs of previous years and comparing them to this year it is evident that our spring in 2011 has been cooler.

(Days Above 60° Oct 1, 2010 - May 15, 2011)

Previous Years are below.

(Days Above 60° Oct 1, 2007 - May 31, 2008)

(Days Above 60° Oct 1, 2008 - May 31, 2009)

(Days Above 60° Oct 1, 2009 - May 31, 2010)

----

Front Of House
I mowed the grass for the first time in 2011. Trees are in bloom and our garden is tilled and ready for planting next weekend.

(Backyard - May 15, 2011)

(FOH - May 15, 2011)

A Cool and Wet April Rolls into May

2011-05-01T21:55:00.004-05:00

Total confusion of the senses for my wife and I last week. Shortly after the snowstorm we were jet setting to Jamaica to watch friends of ours tie the knot. My white skin did not fair well against the intense sunshine of the Caribbean. I learned that multiple reapplications of UV defense is necessary. Enough about my ineptitude of skin care. April at OSNW3 was a deluge of historical proportions. As Tony stated in the comments of the last entry, "you might want to consider putting in a rice paddy this year". The entire time we were away standing water was present on the webcam image. It has since receded and just recently started to actually dry out. The drying out trend will attempt to sustain itself until the 'signature' storm of this years LRC returns sometime around May 12. After the storm our cool and soaked spring will continue to roll on. A wonderful cycle of patterns for a snow lover during the winter months but not so for an avid golfer during the spring months.

(OSNW3 Weather Brief)
(OSNW3 April Observations)

(OSNW3 April 2011 Summary)

(click on graph for the month summary data - it will open a new tab/window)

----

Another Historic April
OSNW3 cracked the all-time top ten for Oshkosh in two of three categories in 2011. Precipitation, Snowfall, and Mean Temperature. A link to a list of each category rankings can be found below.

April Precipitation Rankings (3rd most all-time)
April Snowfall Rankings (10th most all-time)
April Mean Temperature Rankings (31st coolest all-time)

----

Some Jamaica Photos
We were in Negril at a Couples Swept Away all inclusive resort for the wedding. It was nice. I would like to share some sunset and cloud photos I snapped during our travels. The first photo is our first footsteps onto the beach and the sunset. The second is of a sunset a few days into the trip. The third is over Cuba on our return trip. The last is the sunset during our descent into Milwaukee. For a video of our plane plunging into the layer of clouds in the last photo, click here.

(First Footsteps)

(Another Sunset)

(Cuba)

(Milwaukee Descent)

----

Front Of House
It's starting to green up around here.

(FOH - May 1, 2011)

Post Winter Storm Report - Apr 19

2011-04-19T22:25:00.007-05:00

The snow started about 11am on Apr 19 and intensified as the day progressed. The afternoon brought many bolts of lightning and claps of thunder. By the time I was able to leave Holland, WI my car was covered in about six inches of fresh heavy wet snow. The drive back to Oshkosh was long and tedious as roads were snow covered. Winds were whipping as well enhancing the low visibilities. I was able to snap a few photos in Holland and get a measurement once I got home. At the time of observation the wind was gusting considerably and the snow was winding down. A radar loop and a webcam time lapse can be found by clicking the links. A few photos of the storm are located here.

Precip: 1.23"
Snow: 6.4"
Snowdepth: 6"

(Apr 19, 2011 - 6.4" - 9:53pm)

(Apr 19, 2011 - Rain Gauge)

(Apr 19, 2001 - Weight Of Snow)

(Apr 19, 2011 - Holland, WI - 1pm)

(Apr 19, 2011 - Holland, WI - 7pm)

----

April Snow Stats
I quickly gathered the all-time greatest snowfalls in Oshkosh for the month of April. Seems this snowfall at OSNW3 breaks into the top ten and comes in at 7th all-time. A historical snowfall for April. This calls for a celebration!

(Top Ten Oshkosh April Snowfalls)

*** Officially in Oshkosh at the WWTP 4.6" of snowfall was recorded for the storm. That amount of snow keeps Oshkosh officially out of the top ten.

A Typical First Half Of April

2011-04-15T22:50:00.011-05:00

I believe the weather we've been experiencing this first half of April is quite typical of what one should expect. A volatile atmosphere swinging up and down as the transition to spring takes place. I will admit I am itching to get out on the golf course. Last year at this time I was closing in on my first 18 being logged into the record book. Thinking back to April 2010, it's shocking to realize that this April to date has been 12.1 degrees cooler regarding daily max temps. However, with only two days above 60 degrees thus far we are still above the Oshkosh average by 2.2 degrees. As for precipitation we are just 4 tenths of an inch below the Oshkosh average. A fairly typical first half of April in my opinion. Still though, I am in search of a warm spell no matter how typical it has been. It would seem one is about two weeks away according to the OSNW3 backyard max temp forecast using the LRC. There is much work to refine the technique, I will admit, but none the less, it verifies over 50% within a 10-15 degree range a month in advance. Speaking of the LRC, I have decided to move my studies to a more specific place on the Internet rather than cluttering up this content. A new blog to view, OSNW3 | Lezak's Recurring Cycle. Keep up with the latest weather for the area by visiting the OSNW3 Weather Brief, we are entering an active period within this years LRC.

(OSNW3 Weather Brief)
(OSNW3 April Observations)

(OSNW3 April 2011 Summary)

(click on graph for the month summary data - it will open a new tab/window)

----

Severe Weather Outbreak
The storms that rolled through the state and specifically Winnebago county last Sunday put this past weeks Severe Weather Awareness week into perspective. We here at OSNW3 luckily made it through unscathed. The northern and southern portions of Winnebago county did not and took a brunt of the severe storm damage. We awed over the light show to our north while the storms were racing through. Sirens were blowing and we were in the basement for about 20 minutes. Scary stuff. Justin Mitchell (Main Street Oshkosh) graciously allowed me to share some of his storm damage photos in this blog entry. They are below and were taken in Menasha. Click the images for a larger view.

Record April Tornado Outbreak in Northeast Wisconsin on April 10, 2011 - National Weather Service in Green Bay

(Menasha Storm Damage - Photos By Justin Mitchell)

----

First Waves Of Season
A stiff and brisk east northeast wind was howling in off Lake Winnebago the morning of Apr 15. This event marked the first time I've witnessed wave action in 2011. The lake became ice free only a few days prior. Gusts were up around 20mph making the air a bit chilly along the shore. As the day progressed the storm system that was churning to our south creating the wind and waves also created some spectacular cloud formations. Photos below. Click images for the entire photo album.

----

Front Of House
Slowly but surely the yard is getting cleaned. The budding process has started on some bushes and trees. I hope the burning bush that I trimmed has no trouble beginning a new growing season. Find out what area wildlife are up to by reading the Winnebago Conservation Photography blog. Early spring sights and sounds are abundant.

(FOH - Apr 14, 2011)

The Timely Taste Of Spring

2011-04-06T22:05:00.007-05:00

It's a shame winter at OSNW3 had to go and end just as another two weeks of winter like weather would blanket the property. After the Great Lakes Cyclone IV passed, like in each previous cycle, a surge of cold air spread over the region locking us into an extended period of winter. Our daily maximum temperature for Mar 24 thru Apr 5 was 36 degrees, 10 degrees below the average. Six of those nights recorded minimum temperatures in the teens. Almost completely opposite from last year during the same time period. A well deserved warm-up is near though. The forecasting computer model massive has finally picked up on it and have it on their radar, something the LRC community has been talking about for months. It's the second week of April and it will end as our first real taste of spring. If it's not raining I will be raking. The monthly climate summary for March can be found here.

(OSNW3 Weather Brief)
(OSNW3 April Observations)

(OSNW3 April 2011 Summary)

(click on graph for the month summary data - it will open a new tab/window)

----

Weekly Snowfall
Besides the snow and sleet from the Great Lakes Cyclone IV we've only had a few flakes here and there make their way to the surface. Two days, Mar 26-27, with some LES flurries off of Lake Michigan and then some sleet just before the thunderstorms and hail on Apr 3. Below are the measurements from the Great Lakes Cyclone IV.

(Mar 23, 2011 - 3.1")

(Mar 24, 2011 - 1.5")

----

Thunderstorms and Hail
The morning of Apr 3 was a historic one here at OSNW3. We witnessed our first ever hail fall from the sky. Hail fell three separate times for about a minute each. The hail measured around a 1/4" in diameter, much like the size of a pea. Quick bursts of moderate rain accompanied the storms creating some typical minor field and street flooding. A video of the hail can be found here.

(Hail - Apr 3, 2011)

(Flooding - Apr 3, 2011)

----

First Real Taste of Spring and the LRC
I have been hedging my bets for this weekends warm-up to take place for many weeks now. I am able to because of my confidence in Lezak's Recurring Cycle. Each time through the cycle at OSNW3 this pattern has produced multiple days that were 10+ degrees above the Oshkosh average maximum temperature.

Nov 8-12 (+15°)
Dec 30-31, Jan 1 (+17°)
Feb 14-18 (+12°)

10+ degrees above average on any day between Apr 7-11 would put OSNW3 into the 60's. These types of temperatures will feel mighty nice after enduring the last gasp of winter the past two weeks. For an interactive look at this particular pattern I would suggest opening each of the 500mb maps, linked below, in their own browser tab. Then move the maps forward in time from each instance to the dates mentioned above paying particular attention to the movement of the atmosphere. It is evident a warm up was coming months ago due to the cycling pattern.

- Nov 5, 2010
- Dec 26, 2010
- Feb 14, 2011

(500mb Heights - 14 days centered on dates above and Apr 5, 2011)

One can do the same thing for the cold snap that followed the Great Lakes Cyclone, more popularly known as this years LRC 'signature' storm, by opening the links below and working through them as explained above. A persistent northwest flow set up ushering in cooler than average air.

- Oct 26, 2010
- Dec 11, 2010
- Feb 1, 2011
- Mar 23, 2011

(500mb Heights - 14 days centered on dates above)

More in depth information about these particular patterns within this years LRC can be found in the WeatherWatch12 and LRCweather blogs. Following these and other cycle analysis blogs acts as a catalyst for taking the bull by the horns. Recently I have been working with OSNW3 surface data attempting to forecast temperatures using the LRC. I came up with a very crude and simplistic formula that proved to have a 50% verification within a 10-15 degree range during the previous cycles 3 and 4. A good success rate for predicting temperatures a month or more in advance in my opinion. See graphs below for an analysis of previous cycles and a backyard temperature forecast through mid May using the formula. A larger view of each graph can be found by clicking on the image. The forecast graph for cycle 5 says it should certainly be near or above 60 here at OSNW3 this weekend!

The formula I created finds the mean deviation from the 30 year average for the particular day using the temp from that day, the day before and the day after within each cycle. The graph legend consists of the following acronyms. Cycle Max (CycMax), Cycle Min (CycMin), Forecast Max Temp (ForMaxT), Forecast Max Temp Range Hi (ForMaxTRH, Forecast Max Temp Range Lo (ForMaxTRL), Actual Max Temp at OSNW3 (ActualMaxT), and the Oshkosh Average Max Temp (OshAvgMaxT).

If there are any questions about my research or how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog. Thanks!

----

Front Of House
As of Apr 6, my mother's station WIBN6 still has 11" of snow on the ground. I am sure this weekends warm-up will melt a lot of it creating minor flooding and rapids on the Suamico river. As for OSNW3, all of our snow has melted off and we're looking forward to the spring clean up. I updated the OSNW3 photo album and the OSNW3 backyard precipitation forecast. Seems we will be rolling into a cool and active weather pattern in about a week or so.

(FOH - Apr 1, 2011)

(Millers Bay - Apr 1, 2011)

Oshkosh Winters Of 1977-78 & 1978-79 Remembered & Finding Lezak's Recurring Cycle Within Them

2011-03-28T20:55:00.002-05:00

With the fourth passing of the 'signature' storm in this seasons LRC and winter keeping a grip on the region I feel it is a great time to share the research I've done on the Oshkosh winters of 1977-78 and 1978-79. I decided to research these winters for a couple of reasons. The first being to learn the weather, climate and local history that accompanied the second all-time back-to-back snowiest seasons in Oshkosh's recorded history. The second reason being to find Lezak's Recurring Cycle within them and hopefully extend my learning on the theory by providing visual details on the patterns within the cycles.

----

RESEARCH
Participation in discussions on the WeatherWatch12 blog since Oct of 2010 has led me to many great resources for learning about our atmosphere and the LRC. After attempting to find the LRC within previous years on my own with little success, a few lessons from Scott at LRCweather of ways to find the cycle quickly helped ignite the research process. The main lesson being "Top down is the better approach". Many LRC professionals state the basics of the LRC before they begin a discussion about it, and I will do that as well, word for word, below.

Basics of the LRC
* A unique weather pattern sets up every year between October 1st and November 10th
* The weather pattern cycles, repeats, and continues through winter, spring and into summer. Identifying the cycle length helps tremendously when making long range weather predictions.
* Long term long-wave troughs and ridges become established and also repeat at regular times within the cycle. These dominant repeating features are a clue to where storm systems will reach peak strength, and where they will be their weakest.
* The LRC is a winter-long pattern! There is a pattern! It isn’t just one long-wave trough, storm system, or ridge. It is a sequence of troughs and ridges that are cycling across the Northern Hemisphere.

I started my research of finding the LRC within the two seasons by collecting the 500 mb heights from Green Bay, WI for the months of August through July (U of WY Department of Atmospheric Science). I then trended the data noting where major swings were taking place. Those swings led me to specific dates to view archived daily weather maps and compare 500mb plots (NOAA Central Library U.S. Daily Weather Maps Project). Paralleling the archived daily weather maps of U.S. with the 500mb heights from Green Bay I was able to find a cycle length for each season. 1977-78 cycling about every 59 days and 1978-79 cycling about every 58 days.

----

SUMMARY OF BOTH WINTERS AND LRC
The winter of 1977-78 was characterized by two very snowy periods in cycle 1 and cycle 2 lasting about 17 days each. 28.6 inches of snow fell between Nov 23 and Dec 9, and 16.1 inches of snow fell between Jan 19 and Feb 5. The deepest depth of the winter of 19 inches was recorded in early December. Overall snowfall totaled 66.2 inches falling on 37 days with a max 24 hour snowfall of 9.0 inches which came from the worst blizzard to hit the region in quite some time. Temperatures plummeted below zero 38 times bottoming out at -11 in late January. Winter lasted 116 days starting on Nov 30 and ending on Mar 25, according to the OSNW3 Winter Duration. Click here for the winter duration graph. Click here for the daily climate data. Click the image below for newspaper headlines from the Oshkosh Northwestern dating Jan 25-31, 1978 documenting what the folks of Oshkosh were dealing with that winter.

(Worst Blizzard Of Winter Hits - Jan 26, 1978)

I chose two specific events during this season to follow through the recurring cycle; the first measurable snowfall and the first six inch snowfall of the season. The first measurable snowfall event brought a small amount of precipitation and/or snow each time through the cycle. A cool down followed the light precipitation during cycle 1, 2, and 4 as a trough funneled in seasonably cool air to the region. Cycle 3 took on a different feel ushering in a warm up melting most of the double digit snow pack that lingered since January. Perhaps this was due to an omega block forming in the pattern as winter/spring transitioned. The first six inch snowfall event in cycle 1 brought a major snow storm/blizzard to the area in late January during cycle 2 dropping 9 inches of new snow and ushering in an eight day span of daily high temps in the mid to low teens. A trough digging south into Texas brought the cold and snowy times to the region during cycle 1 and 2. Perhaps seasonal affects to the cycle and a split flow were the culprits for cycle 3 and 4 not repeating a major storm in the region.

(First Measurable Snowfall - Nov 10-11, 1977)
This portion of the cycle took place about 61 days apart recurring on Jan 8-9, Mar 9-10 and May 9-10
Nov 10 - Jan 8, 60 days
Jan 8 - Mar 9, 61 days
Mar 9 - May 9, 62 days

Daily Weather Map Comparison (500mb map in bottom left) - 20MB
500mb Plot Graphical Comparison (14 day span centered on days in maps)

(First Six Inch Snowfall - Nov 29-Dec 1, 1977)
This portion of the cycle took place about 58 days apart recurring on Jan 24-26, Mar 23-25 and May 20-22
Nov 29 - Jan 24, 57 days
Jan 24 - Mar 23, 59 days
Mar 23 - May 20, 59 days

Daily Weather Map Comparison (500mb map in bottom left) - 30MB
500mb Plot Graphical Comparison (14 day span centered on days in maps)

The winter of 1978-79 was characterized by a persistent cold and snow that left an intensely deep snow pack that had a slow reprieve. Enduring back to back to back to back snow storms, the Jan 13 snow pack measured almost 2 feet and by Jan 25 the snow pack was at it's greatest depth of the winter, 28 inches. Not until Feb 23 did the snow pack fall below 20 inches giving the area a 20+ inch snow pack for 42 consecutive days. Overall snowfall totaled 87.5 inches falling on 44 days with a max 24 hour snowfall of 7.1 inches. This seasons snowfall total coupled with the previous seasons snowfall total of 66.2 inches is the second snowiest back-to-back winters in Oshkosh history coming in with 153.7 inches. The seasons of 1895-96 and 1896-97 are on top with 171.7 inches (the seasons of 2007-08 and 2008-09 are third with 146.0 inches). Temperatures dropped below zero 34 times with the coldest reading of -21 occurring in early January. Winter lasted 123 days starting on Dec 11 and ending on Apr 12, according to the OSNW3 Winter Duration. Click the link for the winter duration graph. Click the link for the daily climate data. Click the image below for newspaper headlines from the Oshkosh Northwestern dating Jan-Feb, 1979 documenting what the folks of Oshkosh were dealing with that winter.

(Anyone For A Picnic? - Jan 30, 1979)

With so many events taking place during this season I chose two random spots within the cycle that had a 'signature' to it and followed it through; A trough trudging it's way across the Great Lakes and a low pressure off the coast of southern California. The trough brought ridiculously cold air to the area in cycle 2 and abnormally cool air in cycle 4. Cycle 1 and 3 took a similar feel of each other keeping things typical for the season they occurred in as the air sliding down the trough wasn't from northern Canada but more from the Pacific Northwest. The low off of CA produced a mild surge of air during cycles 3 and 4. Cycles 1 and 2 did not produce the mild air as they had a northwest flow ahead of them, perhaps putting a seasonal twist into the pattern. Each occurrence of this particular pattern brought precipitation with it though, about a half inch each time. Cycle 1 and 2 dropped about 3.5" of snowfall each as well.

(Trough - Nov 6-8, 1978)
This portion of the cycle took place about 58 days apart recurring on Jan 1-3, Mar 4-6 and Apr 27-29. The amount of days to and from March seem a bit off, but I analyzed and re-analyzed and concluded on Mar 4. Perhaps a rookie mistake.
Nov 6 - Jan 1, 57 days
Jan 1 - Mar 4, 63 days
Mar 4 - Apr 27, 55 days

Daily Weather Map Comparison (500mb map in bottom left) - 30MB
500mb Plot Graphical Comparison (14 day span centered on days in maps)

(Low Pressure - Nov 23-26, 1978)
This portion of the cycle took place about 57 days apart recurring on Jan 17-20, Mar 16-19 and May 9-12.
Nov 23 - Jan 17, 56 days
Jan 17 - Mar 16, 59 days
Mar 16 - May 9, 55 days

Daily Weather Map Comparison (500mb map in bottom left) - 40MB
500mb Plot Graphical Comparison (14 day span centered on days in maps)

The "Firsts and Lasts" of both winters can be used as a quick comparison tool. Both winters started quick and snowy but only 78-79 was able to maintain and prolong the season into early April. Easy to tell from the list below that 78-79 was the monster of the two.

(1977-1979 Winter Firsts & Lasts)

----

FINAL THOUGHTS
Regarding Oshkosh in general, the Oshkosh Northwestern from the 77-78 winter tells a tale of snowcoverd sidewalks becoming a problem throughout the city. The lack in enforcement of the city snow removal code clogged sidewalks and news of it peppered the newspaper . The following winter, 78-79, it was noted that snow blowers had been sold out in all of Oshkosh. I have yet to experience such snow depths while living in Oshkosh, but I am certain I would have been a culprit of having a too often snow covered sidewalk. I rarely shovel anything less than an inch and if it weren't for my hard working neighbors and a periodic melt, my sidewalk would resemble my driveway most of the time, usually snow covered. (proof that the times have not changed)

Regarding the LRC in this summary, it seems during March the cycle always had some anomaly pattern accompanying it compared to the same recurring patterns during the other cycles. I am curious if this is a seasonal thing that happens in Spring or just something that happened in this instance. The transition the cycle goes through as it breaks down is a high priority of mine to learn more of as summer approaches in 2011.

The data and graphs that led me to my conclusions can be found by downloading the Microsoft Excel file located here. The file contains highlighted areas of my research which include daily surface data, atmospheric sounding data/graphs and event specific information of both winters. The archived daily weather maps used in the comparisons are located in the specific discussions but can also be found in each seasons image gallery here (1977-78) and here (1978-79). Using the spreadsheet I linked above will allow one to pin point particular weather events and dates from this time period. Referencing the maps from the NOAA Central Library U.S. Daily Weather Maps Project would then allow one to see the cycle for themselves. I recommend using the maps to see other parts of the cycle from 77-78 and 78-79.

Due to the amount of time the task of obtaining the atmospheric soundings took, I've since created an Excel spreadsheet that runs a few functions with minor manual manipulation to help speed up the process, about 2 minutes per month. If interested in it, let me know, I would be happy to share.

I am certain all my research and findings regarding the LRC are up for debate as this is my first year following and learning the LRC. It is proof positive to me that the LRC exists. The LRC is fascinating and I am happy the idea of the theory has crossed my path.

If anyone reading this has a memory from the time period discussed, please share your words in the comment section of this blog. It would be much appreciated. Also if there are any questions about my research and how I presented the material just let me know in the comments section of the blog as well. Thanks!

The Great Lakes Cyclone IV

2011-03-24T23:15:00.002-05:00

Our neighbors across the street, the owners of the TAS, were raking their front lawn this past Sunday. I stepped out of my front door and mentioned to them that it is to early for raking as I still had snow in my front yard. I also mentioned that a storm was coming and there will soon be snow covering the ground again. Either way, they are ahead of the spring clean up game and it inspired me later that afternoon to finish trimming a tree and picking up random small pieces of trash that some how float into my yard. It was a well deserved clean up after 95 days of winter. Winter officially ended at OSNW3 on Mar 22. It doesn't look like it at the moment with the fresh coating of snow or feel like it with temps dipping into the low teens at night barely making it above freezing for highs the next day. Adding the fact that we are locked into this pattern for another week or more will make it feel like winter even more. However, a warm up is coming. Plan for the second week of April to become very spring like. That week fits into Lezak's Recurring Cycle with the early November, the NYE and the mid February warm up. The OSNW3 backyard precipitation outlook using the LRC through early May can be found here.

(OSNW3 Weather Brief)
(OSNW3 March Observations)

(OSNW3 March 2011 Summary)

(click on graph for the month summary data - it will open a new tab/window)

----

The Great Lakes Cyclone IV
This storm was certainly of 'signature' nature here in Oshkosh. A snowfall consisting of large and heavy flakes started falling around noon on Mar 22 accumulating 0.9 inches. The snow then changed over to sleet the rest of the night as 2.2 inches of sleet fell. The falling sleet was coupled with thunderstorms that lasted for hours. Strong east winds pounded our windows with the sleet and creaked the house with each gust. Another 1.5 inches of snow fell on Mar 23 bringing the total at OSNW3 for the storm to 4.6 inches, but most impressive in regards to precipitation was the amount of water equivalent the snow/sleet melted down to at observation time on Mar 23, 1.63 inches! It down poured sleet in the many thunderstorms that rolled through.

(Rain gauge at observation time on Mar 23)

(Snow totals from the NWS GRB, click image for the full summary)

(US Radarloop - click image for loop)

My mother's station WIBN6 in Suamico, WI recorded 14.4 inches for a storm total. Her snow depth is at 22 inches as of Mar 24. I believe the yellow snow blower that is used to blow the trail to the feeder broke an axle and my step father plans to leave it out there until the snow melts. HA.

(Suamico, WI - WIBN6 - Mar 24, 2011)

----

Front Of House
We've got the spring fever, but we are yet buried in Old man winter.

(FOH - Mar 24, 2011)

Winter/Spring Metamorphosis

2011-03-14T11:50:00.001-05:00

The seasonal transition from winter to spring is upon us. With a minimal base of snow lingering, chances of rain this week, and max temps not forecast to dip below the freezing mark for the next two weeks, visions of Old Man Winter packing up and leaving will become a common site. Officially winter has a very good chance of ending mid next week here at OSNW3 which is quite typical since 2006. However, looming is the 'signature' storm of this years LRC (Lezak's Recurring Cycle). Most everyone remembers the storms from Oct 25-28, Dec 11-12, and Feb 1-2 and now we look forward to the return mid to late next week. Models will zig zag the track and timing up until the last minute so pin pointing precip type is difficult. Just know that it's coming and it will affect our region in a similar fashion as the three previous times through the cycle.

(OSNW3 Weather Brief)
(OSNW3 March Observations)

(OSNW3 March 2011 Summary)

(click on graph for the month summary data - it will open a new tab/window)

----

Weekly Snowfall
The first half of March has leaned on the wintry side. The highest recorded temp thus far has only been 40.2° which recently occurred on Mar 12. With many of the max temps hovering around average it has allowed the snow that fell to stick around. 6.2 inches of new snow has fallen since the month began bringing us within an inch and a half of the monthly Oshkosh average here at OSNW3. Our seasonal total stands at 56.5 inches.

(Mar 8, 2011 - 0.2")

(Mar 9, 2011 - 2.9")

(Mar 10, 2011 - 3.1")

----

Front Of House
I will not be cutting the grass any time soon. And as far as springing forward in time, I prefer more daylight in the morning rather than in the evening. The first Sunday in April through the last Sunday in October still seems to be a better choice in my opinion, are we really saving energy extending DST four weeks?

(FOH - Mar 14, 2011)

Meteorological Spring Has Arrived!

2011-03-01T09:30:00.007-06:00

Meteorological winter has come to an end. It has been a season of extraordinary learning accompanied by many, many snow measurements. Since the last blog entry it has snowed seven times and I've taken at least twice as many measurements. Twenty-one inches of snow fell this February at OSNW3 which is more than double the average snowfall for Oshkosh. We maintained almost a ten inch snow depth for the month but not with out a complete melt down over a seven day stretch with temperatures topping the freezing mark to start the second half. The final week knocked the spring fever out of the air reminding all of us winter really wasn't over. March looks to be an active month trending toward the wintry side peaking near the end of the month with the fourth iteration of the Great Lakes Cyclone. Spring will be delayed a few weeks compared to last year with our first real taste not until the second week of April. March Forecast – Based on Lezak’s Recurring Cycle - Jeremy Nelson WeatherWatch 12

(OSNW3 Weather Brief)
(OSNW3 February Observations)

(OSNW3 February 2011 Summary)

(click on graph for the month summary data - it will open a new tab/window)

----

Weekly Snowfall
Accumulating snowfall on 7 of the last 18 days has dropped 13.1 inches of new snow. Over half of that total came from one snowfall but the last snowfall of the month proved to be the most significant as it became the most peaceful of the winter.

(Feb 12, 2011 - 0.2")

(Feb 13, 2011 - 0.2")

(Feb 21, 2011 - 7.9")

(Feb 22, 2011 - 1.4")

(Feb 24, 2011 - 0.1")

(Feb 26, 2011 - 0.2")

(Feb 27, 2011 - 3.2")

----

Meteorological Winter
The months of December, January, and February make up the most wonderful time of the year for snow lovers. With the La Nina influence and atmospheric conditions ripe for snowfall, this season did not fail to represent the "all that is good" for winter long interests. This meteorological winter lands itself in the top ten of all-time snowiest winters in Oshkosh recording 50.1 inches of snow and in the top five all-time in Oshkosh for days with measurable snowfall. Temperature wise OSNW3 recorded a mean temp of 18.8°F, a degree below the all-time average which puts this winter at 37 out of 118 for all-time coldest winters in Oshkosh. For a comprehensive list of precipitation observation stations in Winnebago County for this meteorological winter season please click here.

(Oshkosh Met Winter Snowfall Total - 1970-2011)

(Oshkosh Met Winter Days with Snowfall - 1970-2011)

"It snowed more when I was younger." Depending on what generation one is are from, the statement is probably a correct statement. Analyzing the two graphs above it is evident that during the 1970's it was snowing more frequently and yielding larger totals than all of the 1980's, 1990's and the first half of the 2000's. The past four seasons in Oshkosh have been on an upward trend looking to out snow the 1970's. I, for one, enjoy the trend and I hope it continues into the 2010's.

----

Seasonal Snowfall
The recent sounds of heavy machinery moving snow from the sides of the roads during the late night early morning hours have been heard throughout the entire north side of Oshkosh. Rightfully so. With March promising to be wintry, the old snow must be removed so the new snow can pile up. So far the 2010-11 snow season at OSNW3 has recorded 50.3 inches in 34 days of measurable snowfall. Both of these numbers look to rise through March and probably early April. OSNW3 has been in the grasp of Old Man Winter for 74 days and counting, starting back on Dec 18, 2010.

(OSNW3 Seasonal Snowfall 2006-2011)

(OSNW3 Seasonal Snowdepth 2006-2011)

(OSNW3 Winter Season Duration 2010-2011)

----

Front Of House
Our neighbors have been generously helping the entire neighborhood move snow when the plows push the large amounts of street snow into our driveways. Our front yard is caked in snowblower blown snow. I am guessing it will take a week or two longer to melt all the snow in the front yard versus the back yard. I will be keeping tabs on it.

(FOH - Feb 27, 2011)

Winter Storm Recap Feb 20-21

2011-02-21T11:40:00.011-06:00

OSNW3 Winter Storm Recap
A winter storm affected the region yesterday and is still causing some trouble today. For snow totals click the links below.

National Weather Service - Green Bay
National Weather Service - Milwaukee

Other fun links...

Radarloop of the storm
Timelapse of the storm at OSNW3

----

Conditions at OSNW3
What was awesome about this storm? It was a pleasant surprise to me! The previous time through the cycle, Dec 31 - Jan 1, much of the precipitation dissipated as it moved through WI and it was mainly rain. Same storm, majorly different outcomes! Click the link above and then click the linked precipitation amounts for the dates mentioned above to see what the storm looked like on radar last cycle.

If anyone is reading this, please visit the St. Cloud State University Post Storm Survey site and take the survey. It takes about two minutes. I believe to get the link to work you will need to copy and paste it into your browser!

----
Measurements (4)
----

Feb 21, 2011 @ 06:38
A fourth observation of 1.3" (8.5, 7.2, 7.6, 7.8, 8.4, 7.5, 7.9, 8.3) measured at 6:38 this morning. Currently blowing snow and a temperature of 23°F.

1.3" - New Snow
7.9" - Total Storm Snow
Current Snow Depth - 8"

----

Feb 20, 2011 @ 20:56
For the past five hours the snow has subsided to light snowfall with considerable blowing and drifting. A third observation of 1.6" (7.0, 6.2, 7.0, 6.0, 6.6, 7.0, 6.0, 7.0) measured at 8:56 this evening. Currently snowing lightly with blowing snow and a temperature of 28°F.

1.6" - New Snow
6.6" - Total Storm Snow
Current Snow Depth - 7"

----

Feb 20, 2011 @ 15:11
For the past two hours the snow has continued a moderate to heavy fall. A second observation of 2.6" measured at 3:11 this afternoon. Winds have become gusty and there is blowing snow. Currently snowing lightly with a temperature of 28°F.

2.6" - New Snow
5.0" - Total Storm Snow
Current Snow Depth - 5"

----

Feb 20, 2011 @ 13:09
The snow began at 10:20 this morning. It has been a moderate to heavy snow since. 2.4" measured at 1:09 this afternoon. Calm winds until recently, things are becoming a bit breezy with with a gust here and there.

2.4" - New Snow
2.4" - Total Storm Snow
Current Snow Depth - 2"

YouTube video of the conditions at time of observation located here.

February Thaw On The Horizon

2011-02-10T09:15:00.001-06:00

I was quickly taking a snowfall measurement the night of Feb 7 and recall snow creeping into the top of my boots onto my bare feet inside. That got me thinking about the depth of our current snow pack and how it is relatively deep at the moment. Our snow pack has been on the rise since the new year thaw and hovering around a double digit depth since the beginning of February. Maintaining a below freezing maximum temperature all but one day since Jan 1 has helped our snow pack stick around and deepen. The 2010-11 Winter Duration Graph shows this fairly well. We are now in our 55th day of winter according to the definition of a winter season at OSNW3. This tide is changing in the coming week however, as temperatures are forecast to rise above freezing on multiple days. Remember New Years Eve? That portion of the pattern is cycling back around. Keep up on the latest forecast by visiting the Oshkosh Weather Brief link below. The January climate summary can be found here.

(OSNW3 Weather Brief)
(OSNW3 February Observations)

(OSNW3 February 2011 Summary)

(click on graph for the month summary data - it will open a new tab/window)

----

Weekly Snowfall
Our friend MarkMartin held down the fort in our absence for the Feb 6 observation. He is a dedicated observer. We appreciate his consistent willingness to volunteer his time and help out in a pinch. Sadly the webcam failed to capture him in the act as it defaults a snapshot ever two minutes. Since Jan 28 OSNW3 has recorded 8 days of measurable snow accumulating 9.7 inches. This brings our season total to 37.2 inches.

(Jan 29, 2011 - 1.2")

(Jan 30, 2011 - 0.2")

(Jan 31, 2011 - 0.4")

(Feb 1, 2011 - 2.2")

(Feb 2, 2011 - 2.6")

(Feb 6, 2011 - 0.8")

(Feb 7, 2011 - 1.0")

(Feb 8, 2011 - 1.3")

----

Seasonal Snowfall
The seasonal snowdepth graph located below plainly shows that our current snow pack hasn't been this deep during this time of year for the past 4 years. It's been a great rebound since NYE and when the opportunity has presented itself the snow has been fun to roll around in.

(OSNW3 Seasonal Snowdepth 2006-2011)

(OSNW3 Seasonal Snowfall 2006-2011)

----

Door County Road Trip
Alicia and I spent a little over 24 hours on Feb 5-6 in the great winter confines of the Door Peninsula. Our outdoor adventure took place on Feb 6 at Cave Point County Park. It is always nice to be on the shoreline of a Great Lake.

More photos exist here and two videos exist here.

----

A Cold Perspective
In honor of the recently short lived cold blast, I dug up the top ten coldest Oshkosh nights in the last 30 years. The list also includes the maximum temperature of the particular day. It helps me gain a better understanding of each observation period. The coldest reading at OSNW3 this winter season is -10.6 degrees on Jan 21, 2011. More observations located here.

(10 Coldest Nights In Oshkosh - 1981-2011)

----

Front Of House
The front yard has a hefty cover of snow. This will be taking a major hit in the coming week. I am crossing my fingers that the depths of winter can hold back a major thaw. Thinking snow, our friend Jared linked us to some amazing photos of snow monsters in northern Japan. Now that is a lot snow. Packers.

(FOH - Feb 10, 2011)

Dec-Jan Snowfall Summary & Feb-Mar Snowfall Forecast

2011-01-28T09:00:00.004-06:00

Gloomy and Dreary are two words I have heard recently describing the weather conditions in our area. I happen to disagree. This type of weather is in itself some of the best weather we experience living in WI. It is the ultimate difference from typical mid summer weather. Because of the long days and endless sunshine the summer months become excruciatingly exhausting. I consider winter a time of hibernation, a time to complete ideas and reload. The winter of 2010-11 is becoming one of my all-time favorites since moving to Oshkosh in 1996. In my opinion it is providing ample hibernation type weather.

(OSNW3 Weather Brief)
(OSNW3 January Observations)

(OSNW3 January 2011 Summary)

(click on graph for the month summary data - it will open a new tab/window)

----

Weekly Snowfall
11 of the last 14 days OSNW3 has recorded a Trace or more of snowfall. 6.4" of snow fell in that time period and our snow pack has hovered around 8 inches.

(Jan 15, 2011 - 2.7")

(Jan 18, 2011 - 2.2")

(Jan 22, 2011 - 0.7")

(Jan 27, 2011 - 0.8")

----

Seasonal Snowfall At OSNW3
Our first accumulating snowfall held off until the second week of December this season, making it the slowest start at OSNW3 since we began recording snowfall in 2006. The second iteration of the 'Great Lakes Cyclone' gave us a nice boost shortly after the slow start which brought us up to typical levels of the recent standard. Since then we have been hovering around the long term average (1971-2000) and coasting into February. See graph below.

(OSNW3 Seasonal Snowfall 2006-2011)

----

Backyard Snowfall Forecast (Feb-Mar)
My recent study of the LRC has provided a proper introduction into the world of snowfall forecasting. Without the LRC, creating a realistic backyard snowfall forecast would have been impossible and I would still be living week to week with false anticipations and snowfall anxiety. The guidance I have shamelessly acquired from LRCweather and WISN12 have been the catalyst in this endeavor.

I believe calculating and then graphing, thank you Scott, the daily maximum temperature deviation from the long term average has helped me realize that the cycle actually breathes. Analyzing the graph allowed me to line up the temperature peaks and valleys of each cycle to notice the continual change in length. The change in length is not drastic however, which I believe allows for stability in using the LRC for forecasting. The graph below displays the first three cycles, to date, of the 2010-11 LRC using 47 days as a constant. I chose 47 days because that may have been the official length of the LRC when I created my first backyard snowfall forecast on Dec 17, 2010.

(ALTDev - 2010-11 LRC)

Another way to watch the cycle breath is to analyze the 500mb plots. However daunting this task seems it is useful to make self proclamations on the length and to then let the professionals claim otherwise. There is no better way to learn than to learn from mistakes. This philosophy led me to the comparisons below. I will be comparing the plots frequently this forecast period to watch more closely when and, hopefully, why the cycle changes length.

(Oct 31, 2010 - Dec 17, 2010 - 47)

(Nov 14, 2010 - Jan 1, 2011 - 48)

(Nov 24, 2010 - Jan 10, 2011 - 47)

(Dec 2, 2010 - Jan 21, 2011 - 50)

Looking back at the past month it is obvious that this segment of the backyard snowfall forecast is calling for the "signature" storm a few days early. I am determined to not change the original forecast but at the same time correct the mistakes I made for the second forecast. A few mistakes I made were thoughtlessly thinking each storm was to provide snowfall, every snowfall was to bring a 10 to 1 ratio, and that the cycle would be static and easily determined throughout. Hopefully the correction of these ideas will help me provide my household with an improved forecast this time around as we enter the end of the third cycle and beginning of the fourth cycle. Current statistics on my first attempt at a backyard snowfall forecast are listed below. Although it looks close, the actual total of snow does not yet include the 'signature' storm which is my defining point in the forecast period length.

Actual Snow: 15.4" (to date)
Predicted Snow: 14"

I have attempted a second snowfall forecast which extends into March using a 50 day cycle constant. It is located here. It provides information on potential snowfall occurrences and accumulations. Up to 18 inches could fall between now and mid March. That amount would put OSNW3 into some of the winter forecast predictions bulls eye that were made prior to the season beginning. Well, the LRC winter forecast at least.

----

Front Of House
The snow pack around the property has settled since the snowfalls two weeks ago, but a recent fresh coating has revived the compacting snow. The 2010 year long captures of the FOH and the webcam noon image are updated online and available for viewing here.

(FOH - Jan 27, 2011)

The Month Of The Heart Of Winter

2011-01-14T21:45:00.001-06:00

The first two weeks of January have been slightly warmer than what is typical for this time of year, a bit snowy, and mostly cloudy. Only 3 days out of the last 14 have presented the area with cloudless skies but on a bright side only 4 of them have been completely overcast. Otherwise it's been a mixed sky with sun. We've experienced 9 days with at least a Trace of precipitation and 7 days with measurable precipitation. Snowfall totals since the beginning of the month are around average. Real close to what the CPC predicted two weeks ago. As for what the second half of the month will bring, the CPC is showing colder times with good chances of above average precipitation.

(OSNW3 Weather Brief)
(OSNW3 January Observations)

(OSNW3 January 2011 Summary)

(click on graph for the month summary data - it will open a new tab/window)

----

Weekly Snowfall
Since the new year meltdown, day after day of at least a Trace of snowfall has kept the non-shoveled paths full of snow. Continuing the wonderful sounds of the snow crunch that comes with each step. That is how I prefer snowfalls, often and light.

(Jan 4, 2011 - 1.3")

(Jan 6, 2011 - 1.0")

(Jan 11, 2011 - 1.7")

(Jan 12, 2011 - 1.1")

(Jan 14, 2011 - 0.5")

----

Winter Snowfall Comparison
Again this winter I have gathered precipitation data provided by Winnebago county CoCoRaHS observers ¹ and the official NWS reporting site for Oshkosh to list and compare totals. So far this meteorological winter each station is relatively close without large anomalies. As per usual, the official NWS site for Oshkosh is the lowest of all totals coming in with 18.7" thus far. The highest total comes in from Omro where 22.9" has fallen this meteorological winter to date. Please click on the map for the list of data.

(Observer Locations)

¹ Currently there are no CoCoRaHS observers in the northern areas of the county. There are two NWS observers in Neenah but that data is unobtainable via the Internet as far as I know. Which brings up a great opportunity for anyone reading to join the CoCoRaHS team. All it takes is a little patience and dedication. Click here to join!

----

WIBN6 Update
I have recently added some climate data to my Mother's website for her reporting station in Suamico, WI. A 'Winter History' section includes Snowfall, Snowdepth, Firsts & Lasts, Days with Snowfall, and Days with Precipitation. It's a start!

(WIBN6 - Suamico-4NW)

----

LRC Chit-Chat
As the month trudges on and the weather patterns cycle I can't help but think about how awesome Lezak's Recurring Cycle theory is. It allows average folk like myself to become much more aware of the struggles that exist in short and long range weather forecasting. To have forecast a month ago that a couple storm systems would pop up this coming weekend and early next week using sophisticated computer generated models would have been blasphemy. We are certain to not trust any model further out than a couple days. BUT, with the LRC it's almost second nature to do something so asinine. I strongly believe it is a tool all professional forecasters should carry. With that said, how am I doing on my rookie attempt at using the LRC to generate my backyard snowfall forecast? Currently I am 2 for 3 on predicting an actual snowfall during a forecast period. As far as amounts are concerned, I am slightly below 50% on accuracy. Not too shabby in my opinion. Total snowfall predicted for the period of Dec 17 through Jan 31 is around 14". Since Dec 17 OSNW3 has recorded 9.0" and with two predicted periods of snowfall remaining I can confidently say that 14" is certainly obtainable. More on this to come as we begin the transition out of the current forecast period and into the 4th cycle of the LRC. I am very excited to watch it all evolve. As always, the crew at WISN 12 in MKE and LRCWeather in KC are great educators on all subjects pertaining to weather, climate and the LRC. I recommend a visit to their sites for all curious persons.

----

Front Of House
Frequent snowfalls have left the front yard looking white.

(FOH - Jan 14, 2010)

2010 Year in Review & Learning to use the LRC

2011-01-01T22:05:00.009-06:00

OSNW3 ends December with 1.79 inches of precipitation and again surpasses the Oshkosh monthly average making it the fifth consecutive year in doing so. However, December of 2010 is the driest December at OSNW3 on record since genesis in 2006. Our snow pack took a huge hit in recent days as the past two low pressures western track pulled in very warm air for December and with the warm air the dreaded form of precipitation this time of year, rain. These conditions have quickly decimated a strong 8 inch snow pack. Climatology for December since 1893 can be found here. The first couple weeks of 2011 will bring seasonal temperatures and slight chances for below average precipitation according to the CPC. This forecast agrees with what I expect to occur during this time period in regards to snowfall by my novice use of the LRC.

(OSNW3 Weather Brief)
(OSNW3 January Observations)

(OSNW3 January 2011 Summary)

(click on graph for the month summary data - it will open a new tab/window)

----

Weekly Snowfall
The recent warming trend put a damper on our great start to the snow season. Not too long ago things were looking exceptional around the region for snow lovers. I have a sneaky feeling we'll be up and down like that this winter. For seasonal snowfall stats click here.

(Dec 19, 2010 - 0.1")

(Dec 21, 2010 - 2.2")

(Dec 22, 2010 - 1.0")

(Dec 25, 2010 - 0.1")

----

LRC Learning Process
The storms that rolled through Dec 29-31 brought warm air and rain with them. Something that I did not think would happen back on Dec 17 when I created my backyard snowfall forecast using the LRC. I will admit I was skeptical of this particular system due to the direct southerly flow in the first cycle, but with it being the end of December I thought that it would at the least snow a little bit. Not the case. This got me thinking about a way to accommodate for different types of precipitation when committing to a long range snowfall forecast. Perhaps I could use the temperature deviation from the long term average or the deviation from cycle median occurring in the previous cycle for a clue? After comparing the most recent activity in this cycle and it's partner in the previous cycle I concluded that the cycle median deviation from average was ambiguous, but the deviation from the long term average was not as anomalous. The results may have persuaded me to predict less snow had I thought of this potential component. We'll see if this turns out to be matter for more thought. Click the link above for my latest analysis, fun.

----

Climatological Averages
The 'normal' temperature and precipitation numbers we have all become accustomed to the past ten years are all about to change. Each decade the NWS recalculates the 30 year averages. We will be moving from the 1971-2000 time period onto the 1981-2010 period. It seems it may be a daunting task to incorporate all the new averages into my database, but it gives me a great opportunity to upgrade. I look forward to seeing the new averages!

----

2010 - Year In Review
:January; Two words. El Nino. First ten days were seasonable but overall Jan 2010 was mild and dry.
:February; Accompanied by above average snowfall and above average temperatures, the below average snow pack quickly melted away once March arrived. Overall all it was mild and wet.
:March; Spring was the overall theme as it was warm and dry. Joined just four other months of March since 1893 to not record a maximum temperature below freezing. However, an upside was that the ice shoves did not disappoint this winter enthusiast.
:April; Felt more like May or June. A wet start, typical of the past few years. Earliest lake fly hatch in 50 years. Green-up began two weeks earlier than the previous year.
:May; A true roller coaster ride. 80's to begin and end, but the first ever snowflakes recorded at OSNW3 in May, during the middle of the month.
:June; Seasonally warm and very wet. Dew points were maxed out near the end of the month. Rain barrel was consistently full and untouched all month.
:July; Record breaking rains and dew points above 65 for all but a hand full of days. The dog days of summer were prevalent. 3 rain events over an inch.
:August; August ends 2 inches below average but summer ends as Wettest ever. Dew points stay maxed out for most of the month.
:September; Provided a relief from the summer heat but hung us out to dry relatively speaking. 16 days with measurable precipitation but yet remained below average.
:October; Warm and dry. 17 days without measurable precipitation, ranking in the top 5 all-time dry spells at OSNW3. An unforgettable event, the Great Lakes Cyclone.
:November; A dry and mild month. Typical ups and downs. Below average precipitation as is the normal at OSNW3.
:December; Relatively snowy but not to be overlooked by a late arriving first inch and start to winter. One blizzard which was issued a winter storm warning. A late warming trend killed the 8+ inches of snow pack to end the year.

Daily climatology can be found for each of the months by following this link. An overall climatological summary of 2010 can be found here. A precipitation comparison graph of each of the four full years on record at OSNW3 can be here.

----

Front Of House
It's 2011, Happy New Year! FOH 2010 time lapse coming soon.

(FOH - Jan 1, 2011)

Blizzard Aftermath & An OSNW3 Snowfall Forecast Using the LRC

2010-12-18T14:30:00.008-06:00

Rather tranquil winter weather bestowed the area after the blizzard last weekend. Cloudless skies with bright sunshine reflected off the fresh snowpack providing a serotonin overload. A system skirted to our south bringing some clouds late in the week giving a break to the eyes and senses. Currently we are below the December means for temperature and precipitation, but are above in snowfall. As for what is in our near future, the CPC forecasts a 'near median' period regarding temperature and 'slightly above median' period regarding precipitation.

(OSNW3 Weather Brief)
(OSNW3 December Observations)

(OSNW3 December 2010 Summary)

(click on graph for the month summary data - it will open a new tab/window)

----

Blizzard Aftermath: Ice Shoves & Freezing Fog
Early this week Steven posted a satellite image from the MODIS Today website. It is a very intriguing view of our landscape. During my ride to work the morning of Dec 13, the day after the storm, I noticed ice shoves out on the lake ice south of Neenah and to the north a very large area of steam rising from the lake. I figured the high winds from the storm must have broke the ice and moved it in a similar fashion as the strong winds break the ice in spring. Later in the week I was informed that ice shoves moved into view offshore the Lasky residence in Oshkosh. The ground level ice shove images below are courtesy of Courtney Lasky. Along with the photos are her comments. Many of the ice shoves on the lake are faintly visible in the 250m satellite version of the image linked from Steven above. Amazing! Thanks for the photos Court and for the satellite image Steven!

We woke up on Sunday [Dec 12] to these gigantor shoves- totally sucks, as the lake had been like BUTTER! I had just been commenting last week that it was the smoothest that I'd ever seen Winnebago freeze, and was looking forward to snow, so I could get out there and ski. NOW, that is a little compromised... Figure there were a lot of snowmobile owners crying on Sunday morning... GREAT storm though- wasn't it?! WOOHOO!!

Blizzard aftermath events other than the ice shoves above consisted of consecutive mornings where freezing fog was taking place near Lake Winnebago and atop the Niagara Escarpment. I snapped a few photos of the fog during my travels to Sheboygan this week. More freezing fog photos can be found here.

(Freezing Fog - Dec 14, 2010)

----

Snowfall Predictions Using the LRC
I have decided to try my hand at creating a personal snowfall forecast this winter using the little knowledge I have of the LRC. After I began I asked myself why I was going through the trouble of researching and analyzing all this. I have several questions that need attention. For example, when will the next snow day occur at my wife's school? Or when can we take a short trip without having to find a substitute observer? Or will it snow next week when I drive to a customer site 60 miles away? Or when is the best time to play on the shores of Lake Superior and Lake Michigan? Questions like these need answers and it is all possible to obtain using the LRC. So I continued. I researched the length of the LRC (47ish days), precipitation totals, archived radar loops, and 500mb height contour maps. I created a spreadsheet of what I found listing the cycles and daily precipitation totals during each and highlighting when the chances of snowfall may take place in the area from now through January. The spreadsheet can be found here. To sum up the spreadsheet, it shows Dec 19-23 may have a low move in from the W bringing an inch. Dec 28-31 there could be a low that moves in from the SW where greater than two inches could fall. Jan 6-12 a series of disturbances could work through leaving three or more inches. Jan 15-18 another low moves in from the SW potentially leaving two or more inches snow. And then the big one, Jan 25-29, the return of the 'Great Lakes Cyclone' once again, the third iteration. It turns out these last dates coincide with the school and work week taking place on a Wednesday through Friday. A snow day to look forward to perhaps. Overall snow totals from now through January could be somewhere around 14 inches in my backyard. That amount would put OSNW3 over the two months of December and January average total snowfall for Oshkosh.

My confidence in the LRC is relatively high at this point in my recent following of the cycle. Jeremy Nelson and Mark Baden of WISN WeatherWatch 12 have kept the LRC talk in top priority. Jeremy's long range forecast can be found by following this link to the blog entry. "The great thing about the LRC is that anyone can follow along and try to make their own forecasts". We'll see if I should hang up the LRC crystal ball as the next cycle comes to a close. :)

(2010-11 OSNW3 LRC List)

(red fill is start/stop points in forecast, chances of snowfall are lt grn , grn , and drk grn)

----

Front Of House
It's looking a lot like winter around here. As a matter of fact, Dec 18 is the official first day of winter at OSNW3 this season. With that milestone, I would like to note that no one has predicted correctly in this years winter predictions. First 1" came on Dec 9 and the First day of winter Dec 18 as stated above. The predictions can be found here.

(FOH - Dec 18, 2010)

Post Snowstorm Recap - Dec 11-12, 2010

2010-12-13T08:30:00.011-06:00

Anyone that follows the LRC knew this storm was coming. Most forecast models were confused throughout the duration. Regardless, the outcome was extreme. Our travel plans for the weekend were canceled and we stocked up on some extra foods as we knew we'd be snowed in for up to 24 hours. I even purchased a new shovel to compliment the wovel. I will be uploading a Picasa web album and videos on YouTube as time allows. Also, I am including a link to the Post Storm Survey. Participation is highly encouraged. PSS Site. Direct link to the PSS Survey for this storm. December climatology thus far can be found here. Other winter data can be found here by scrolling down to the "Winter History" section. A radar loop of the storm up until the posting of this entry can be found here. Mark your calendars for the third iteration of the 'Great Lakes Cyclone', Jan 27-28*.

*(the storm recurred on Feb 1-2 sliding a bit south and grazing OSNW3)

Winnebago County storm totals
9.3" Oshkosh WWTP (NWS Official)
9.5" Oshkosh 5.6 S
9.5" OSNW3 | Oshkosh - North
11.2" Oshkosh 5.2 N
11.3" Omro 2.3 WSW

I will be posting other post storm recaps as I find out about them.
NW Wisconsin Weather
SE Wisconsin Weather
Great Sky of the North
CoCoRaHS Station MO-CW-1
NWS Green Bay
NWS Milwaukee

(FOH - Dec 12, 2010)

----
Measurements (5)
----

Dec 12, 2010 @ 10:15
Snow ended around 10am. Very stong winds with falling temperatures. Temperature at observation was 18 degrees. I took the same eight different measurements around the observation area. 10.0" being the least and 13.6" being the most. 11.3" average.

0.5" - New Snow
9.5" - Total Storm Snow
Current Snow Depth - 11"

There will be an online photo album to go along with this storm and more videos added to YouTube within the next 24 hours.

----

Dec 12, 2010 @ 07:17
Now this is a blizzard. Conditions for this mornings observation were quite the same as they were during last nights observation. Moderate to heavy snow, very windy with major blowing snow. Many drifts have popped up as I was almost unable to get out the side door. I took the same eight different measurements around the observation area. 9.5" being the least and 12.6" being the most. 10.8" average.

4.5" - New Snow
9.0" - Total Storm Snow
Current Snow Depth - 11"

I will be adding a handful of videos to the YouTube site as the day progress and with snowfall still coming down I would imagine there will be at least one or two more reports.

----

Dec 11, 2010 @ 21:46
It's getting tough to measure. Took eight different measurements around the observation area. 6.0" being the least and 8.6" being the most. 6.3" average. Exactly one inch above what I had previous observation. Snow is coming down very heavily and winds are out of control.

1.0" - New Snow
4.5" - Total Storm Snow
Current Snow Depth - 7"

----

Dec 11, 2010 @ 20:21
Blizzard conditions. Major winds and blowing snow. Temperature of 28 degrees. This is a very difficult snow to observe. Many measurements will be made to get just one as the storm moves along.

2.6" - New Snow
3.5" - Total Storm Snow
Current Snow Depth - 6"

(Storm Radar Loop - up til this observation)

I am sharing a video of that moment and it's uploading now. Should be ready in the next half hour. OSNW3 YouTube.

----

Dec 11, 2010 @ 06:50
Light snow. A little breezy. Temperature of 24 degrees.

0.9" - New Snow
0.9" - Total Storm Snow
Current Snow Depth - 3"

Return of the 'Great Lakes Cyclone'

2010-12-08T21:15:00.006-06:00

The transition from meteorological autumn to winter was abrupt. Temperatures were in the balmy 40's at the end of November, but since then they have struggled to break 30. A Trace of snow has been recorded seven of the first nine days of December, but only one of those days has had an accumulation. As we here at OSNW3 look forward to our first inch in the coming day, we are also anticipating the return of the 'Great Lakes Cyclone'. For a superb discussion on the potential of this weekends storm in our area please direct attention to the WeatherWatch 12 crew, they be dropping science.

(OSNW3 Weather Brief)
(OSNW3 November Observations)

(OSNW3 December 2010 Summary)

(click on graph for the month summary data - it will open a new tab/window)

----

Seasons First Inch Of Snow
In my previous entry, WxWatcher left a comment regarding the lack of our first one inch snowfall in Oshkosh. He wondered when our latest one inch snowfall occurrence took place. That got my wheels spinning. I figured the most recent stats would suffice so I compared the previous 30 snow seasons first one inch snowfalls, 1980 through 2009. Results show that Dec 2 is the date that Oshkosh, since the 1980-81 snow season, averages the first one inch snowfall. Our earliest one inch snowfall in the same time frame is Oct 27 and our latest Jan 29. The Jan 29 date seems excruciatingly painful for snow lovers. I remember that winter, and it hurt. Below is a listing of the numbers for a closer look. Click image for a larger view.

(First One Inch Snowfalls 1980-2009)

----

Weekly Snowfall
The sky has been full of flakes recently thanks to the winds blowing over Lake Superior. While the LES snow belts of the Upper Peninsula measure in feet, we get to watch flurries. That doesn't take away from the beauty however. Thinking about the past handful of days and the length of the LRC, perhaps 40 some days from Dec 5 might be a good starting point to spend a couple days in the UP playing in the snow?

(Dec 4, 2010 - 0.1")

----

Front Of House
I enjoy my FOH photos as they provide a great way for me to see what is in need of some tender loving maintenance. I am unsure if it would be as noticeable to my eye without the photo. Think snow!

(FOH - Dec 8, 2010)

Not A "Normal" November, Or Is It?

2010-11-27T13:50:00.015-06:00

Typical for the month of November is the extreme difference we endure between the highest high and lowest low. Thus far OSNW3 has recorded a maximum temperature of 62.4 degrees and minimum temperature of 14.7 degrees. Currently we are just over 3 degrees above the monthly mean and just under 2 inches below the monthly precipitation total. As for what is to come, "The feature that produced the wind storm should come back in some form in the first 10 days of December" - Jeremy Nelson of WeatherWatch12. Welcome back The Great Lakes Cyclone, perhaps? Jeremy has issued his winter outlook and will be pinning down the actual length of the LRC during the month of December. Think snow!

(OSNW3 Weather Brief)
(OSNW3 November Observations)

(OSNW3 November 2010 Summary)

(click on graph for the month summary data - it will open a new tab/window)

----

First Snowfall Accumulation
On November 24, 2010 a wet snow preceded a sleet and rain filled evening. Accumulating to 0.2" it became the 2010-11 seasons first. Year after year this occasion is an exciting time. This year in particular as my two year old daughter made her first snow observation! Time lapse located here.

(Nov 24, 2010 - 0.2")

Other stations around Winnebago county, CoCoRaHS and NWS, did not report a snowfall accumulation, however, the WWTP in Oshkosh did report a Trace. It's important to remember that variances in exposure of the measurement site reflect local weather differences along with the frequency of the actual measurement.

----

Today's Normal Temperatures
Each morning our favorite meteorologists tell us what "normal" is for the day ahead. More times than not, the forecast's relationship to "normal" is magnified as the temperatures waver from it. So, what is "normal" really? Interestingly enough, "normal" is more "abnormal" than one would think. Not very often do we experience "normal" weather to the standards of our averages.

I did a study of the last 30 years in Oshkosh (1981-2010*) on temperatures in the month of November to determine the number of "normal" days we actually experience. For this analysis I considered maximum and minimum temperatures that were +/- 3 degrees of the 30 year average (1971-2000) temperature, "normal". The results are more extraordinary than I imagined. Of the past 30 years Oshkosh has not had a single November day that produced a "normal" temperature more often than a 3 degree variation from average. It would seem, what is "normal" is really a variation of departures from average and that these variations are what is actually typical or "normal" (see link below**). Below are graphical representations of the maximum and minimum temperatures. Also, provided is this link to the spreadsheet data for a deeper analysis of the Oshkosh numbers.

(Maximum Temperature Graph)

(Minimum Temperature Graph)

*2007-2010 data observed at OSNW3 | Oshkosh-North, 1981-2006 data provided by the NWS Green Bay for OSHKOSH (476330)

**For a more in depth look at the "Misconceptions about what is 'normal' for the atmosphere" by Chuck Doswell, click here. The link was first brought to my attention by lrcweather in this WeatherWatch12 blog comment section. It is a fun read.

----

A Tribute to Great Lake Waves
Earlier this week Steven posted a video of the waves on Lake Michigan in south east Wisconsin resulting from the storm that brought this seasons first snowfall accumulation to OSNW3. In honor of that I would like to list my most exciting times witnessing waves on the Great Lakes. First in a list of four occasions is Lake Superior on January 18, 2003. As Casey and I crept upon the black rocks on the north side of Presque Isle in Marquette, MI the sight of massive waves came into focus. Clicking the link below will bring up a Picasa web album and a series of pics/vids of that day (scroll backwards). These videos are rated PG-13 for strong language. Second on the list is Lake Michigan on January 8, 2010 when I ventured onto the ice shelves at North Point Park in Sheboygan, WI to get a better glimpse of the ice caked waves. More on this day in this blog entry. The video is linked below and because of a malfunctioning camera there is no sound. Third on the list is again Lake Michigan on October 23, 2009 when very strong north east winds blew into the Deland Park break wall also in Sheboygan, WI. Clicking the link below will bring up a Picasa web album and a series of pics/vids of that day. Fourth on the list is Lake Winnebago (Although it is not a Great Lake it is in the Great Lakes Basin) on September 24, 2010 when strong west winds sustained themselves all day at 20-30 mphs. My vantage point was County Park near Stockbridge, WI. To this day these waves are the biggest I've witnessed on the second largest freshwater lake within any state in the United States. Video linked below.

January 18, 2003 - Lake Superior
October 23, 2009 - Lake Michigan
January 8, 2010 - Lake Michigan
September 24, 2010 - Lake Winnebago

(The Great Lakes)

----

Front Of House
I haphazardly raked the leaves so I could get a FOH shot that looks different than the last few. Looking forward to a white landscape. Up the road about 60 miles at my Mom's location, she also measured her first snowfall accumulation of the season. Nine tenths of an inch fell as well did the same amount at another observer's location a few miles away. Other snow totals in Brown county were below a half inch.

(FOH - Nov 27, 2010)

Diurnal Temperature Variation & The Northwoods Snowstorm

2010-11-16T12:00:00.005-06:00

Late this past week our mild temps took a dive back to seasonal. It was getting out of hand as our overnight minimum temperatures hovered around our average maximum temperatures. The cooler temperatures boost our chances for our first measurable snowfall to take place soon. The average date for OSNW3's first accumulating snowfall is Nov 20. That said, a trend that continues here at OSNW3 for the month of November is the lack of precipitation. We've received just 0.22 inches. 2010 marks our 5th season observing and of the four preceding Novembers all have failed to reach the average monthly precipitation total. As for what lies ahead, the forecast is calling for below average temperatures with equal chances of precipitation.

(OSNW3 Weather Brief)
(OSNW3 November Observations)

(OSNW3 November 2010 Summary)

(click on graph for the month summary data - it will open a new tab/window)

----

Diurnal Temperature Variation
It is the variation in temperature that occurs from the highs of the day to the cool of nights (wiki). Specific things pop out when analyzing a monthly summary graph and as I was overlooking RangerBob's I noticed a sizable difference between his daily hi/lo averages for the month of November. WxWatcher then joined the communication as he noticed the differences as well and quickly ran his data. Both WxWatcher and RangerBob did a great job describing multiple reasons their regions have their range through the seasons. Instead of reiterating their words, I will just link their blog entries in the previous sentence. All of their reasons are true for the variations at OSNW3. However, they all work together a bit differently in each of our regions, which is great fun for each of us to document and share.

I compared diurnal temperature variations of the 30 year average (1971-2000) for Oshkosh and the 3 year average (2007-09) for OSNW3, graph located below. After analyzing the data it is evident that RangerBob's variation during the summer and winter months is more extreme. Much wider of a span during summer and a slightly tighter span during winter. Overall for WxWatcher, his variations are a bit wider, spanning 5 degrees more on average as the seasons transition. Oshkosh's biggest drop occurs from autumn to winter as one would expect with the waning strength of the afternoon sun and the cool night that follows.

(Oshkosh & OSNW3 - Diurnal Temperature Variation)

Included with the annual summary for each year at OSNW3 is a newly created diurnal temperature variation graph. I particularly like the data presentation as one can quickly see long lived weather events or short lived extreme events that occurred throughout the year. An OSNW3 annual summary for 2007, 2008, and 2009 can be viewed by clicking the links.

----

Northwoods Snowstorm
While Derek, Nathan, and Tim were all involved with the latest snowstorm in the northwoods I wanted to pay tribute to their post storm reports. I've looped together the radar of the three days it spun around the region. Please visit each of their blogs for their recaps. Links are below.

NW Wisconsin Weather (Derek)
Northern Wisconsin Weather (Nathan)
Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin (Tim)

(Regional Radar Loop - Nov 12-15, 2010)

(click on radar image for the actual radar loop - it will open a new tab/window)

----

Front Of House
As the days become shorter and weekends become busier I have a sneaky feeling I'll be finishing the autumn clean up duties by moonlight. Due to the FOH being practically the same as last week I've decided to remember a more bountiful time. Like Feb 19, 2008 when the snow depth was 16 inches out back at OSNW3, the deepest depth recorded in our short history. For the folks that enjoy predicting winter climatology at OSNW3, the list of predictions can be found by clicking here.

(OSNW3 - Feb 19, 2008)

November Pleasantry & Lezak's Recurring Cycle; A view from OSNW3

2010-11-09T14:05:00.008-06:00

November is beginning as it did the past two years with an up and down feel trending on the dry and mild side with nothing extreme happening. At my location we have only recorded 0.03 inches of precipitation thus far and our mean temperature is about a degree above the average. On a more exciting note, we did register our First Flakes of the season at OSNW3 on Nov 4 at 6:45pm. It came down in the form of graupel, which I learned is a matter of opinion if it actually counts as a "first flake" or not, but we here at OSNW3 have counted it as "First Flakes" of the season. Also, on Nov 5 the temperature maxed out at 38.9 degrees. The Last time the max temperature stayed below 40 was on Apr 9, 2010 when it was 39.7 degrees. 212 days prior. The 6-14 day forecast concludes we will see below average temperatures with above average precipitation after this beautiful weather of late moves on out. Think snow!

(OSNW3 Weather Brief)
(OSNW3 October Observations)

(OSNW3 November 2010 Summary)

(click on graph for the month summary data - it will open a new tab/window)

----

Lezak's Recurring Cycle; A view from OSNW3
Lately I've been expressing my interest in the LRC and I've done a bit of digging for some personal verification of the theory. As it goes, I was informed by Jeremy Nelsen in a recent blog entry that the LRC length last year was around 60 days. Knowing the LRC is determined between Oct 1 and Nov 10, I started with the first pronounced storm system to work into the region. October 8, 2009 is where I chose to begin the cycle to see if the same storm recurred 60 days later. Indeed it did around Dec 7, 2009. Adding another 60 days from then the cycle recurs once more landing the storm system in the region around Feb 8, 2010. Again, the storm affects the region 60 days later around Apr 6, 2010. Analyzing the graph and radar loops linked below, each storm recurrence shares enough similarity to verify the 2009 60 day LRC in my opinion.

(Radar)
Oct 7-11, 2009
Dec 8-10, 2009
Feb 8-11, 2010
Apr 7-9, 2010

(Graph)

I needed another instance to verify. October 22, 2009 is where I chose to follow a second storm through the cycle. Each recurrence of this storm shared many of the similarities as did the above instance.

(Radar)
Oct 21-24, 2009
Dec 23-29, 2009
Feb 21-25, 2010
Apr 22-24, 2010

(Graph)

As of right now, I have one major interest in the upcoming LRC length. Just when will the "Great Lakes Cyclone" show it's face again? My anticipation for the 2010 LRC length is growing day to day, and as Jeremy Nelsen states in his most recent blog entry, the pattern is very close to being set! 36-38 days? That would bring a whopper of a winter storm to the region around Dec 2, 2010. We will wait and see!

----

Another Historical Storm
In memory of the Great Lakes Cyclone, this past week Doug Zellmer of the Oshkosh Northwestern blogged a weather memory of an Oshkosh resident that dates back to 1940. The entire entry can be viewed by clicking the following link. A tale of woe 70 years ago in Oshkosh. After reading the entry I immediately searched out some "concrete" data to match the memory.

The daily weather maps from Nov 11, 1940 and Nov 12, 1940 conclude that a system similar to the "Great Lakes Cyclone" came rushing through the region. The pressure was very low with the isobars tightly packed together indicating very strong winds. The observations from Green Bay on the map tell me there was a 35 degree 24 hour temperature drop from the 11th to the 12th. The temperature at observation time in Green Bay on the 11th was 49. A day later it was 14. Wind speeds were measured at 40mph. 0.60" of precipitation was observed as well. As the system exited the US, the pressure was down to 981mb. Very impressive. I'd like to add that Mr. Luft has a great memory and I am very happy that he relayed this history to Doug. I'd like to thank Doug for reciting it in his blog. It's a must to keep history alive.

**Addendum - More on this time period can found below.
Karl Bohnak - November 11: A Volatile Atmosphere
SierraVisions - November Gales, Deadly Lakes

I'd like to recommend viewing the weather maps, as the information I described above came directly from the maps. It's all possible by downloading the Djvu browswer plugin, installing it, and then clicking the links to the maps below. It's a painless adventure and well worth the results.

Viewing the weather maps requires the free Djvu Browser Plug-In.
http://www.celartem.com/en/download/djvu.asp#win

Map links.
http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/dwm/1940/19401111.djvu
http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/dwm/1940/19401112.djvu

NOAA Central Library U.S. Daily Weather Maps Project.
http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/dwm/data_rescue_daily_weather_maps.html

----

Front Of House
The burning bush is 95% bare. Waiting for the basswood in the back to lose all of it's leaves. Once that is complete, fall yard clean-up will commence. I am not the type of person who does it many times in sake of a "clean" yard. I let mother nature do her thing.

(FOH - Nov 9, 2010)

October Climate Summary, Annual Precipitation and the LRC

2010-11-01T22:20:00.005-05:00

October of 2010 was a tranquil month with one exception, the Great Lakes Cyclone. OSNW3 ended the month 1.8 degrees above the Oshkosh mean temperature and 0.40 inches above the Oshkosh precipitation average. We recorded no snowfall. A record was broken at my location on Oct 26, when 1.14" of rainfall was recorded for the 24hr period. As for November, the near future is forecasting average temperatures with small chances of precipitation while a more mild and wet period may be awaiting us in two weeks.

(OSNW3 Weather Brief)
(OSNW3 October Observations)

(OSNW3 October 2010 Summary)

(click on graph for the month summary data - it will open a new tab/window)

----

Annual Precipitation
Through October 31st, OSNW3 has recorded 35.96 inches of precipitation. Creeping ever closer to our soaking in 2008 which produced 40.86 inches of precipitation.

(OSNW3 Precipitation Summary - Annual Total)

(OSNW3 Precipitation Summary - Monthly Total)

----

More Winter Snowfall Outlook Jabber
I have gained added interest in this winters forecast since my recent discovery of the LRC theory. Another spark to the flame was an interesting fact in Karl Bohnak's blog about the El Nino/La Nina transition during the early 70's. I immediately needed to know what Oshkosh's winter snowfall totals were back then for another potential outlook. Details of my findings are below.

From Karl's blog entry Some Thoughts on the Coming Winter. "One private forecaster has pointed out that the transition from a strong El Nino to a rather strong La Nina is much like the transition that occurred between the winters of 1972-73 and 1973-74."

Oshkosh had sizable snowfall during these meteorological winters (Dec, Jan, Feb). 1972-73 received 39.0 inches and 1973-74 received 36.8 inches. Average snowfall for an Oshkosh met winter is 30.5 inches. The La Nina statistics I am aware of are leaning towards Oshkosh having a decent chance for above average snowfall this winter. One winter outlook that has yet to be released is the LRC winter outlook. I am patiently awaiting that information. It will make this winter very exciting as it unfolds. More on the LRC (Lezak's Recurring Cycle) can be obtained by clicking the link. I suggest checking out the blog when at the website.

----

Front Of House
Started trimming the Birch tree in the front yard and the Pussywillow tree in the side yard. I have a sizable branch pile started in the back yard.

(FOH - Nov 1, 2010)

The Great Lakes Cyclone

2010-10-27T10:30:00.012-05:00

**Update** Follow this link to view a satelitte loop of the storm.

Epic, Apocalyptic, and Historical are a few adjectives I've read describing the low pressure system that has engulfed the region. Much hype preceded reality and it is living up to that hype. We here at OSNW3 have recorded over an inch of rainfall with the loudest of winds creaking our 90 year old home. From friends via the Internet I am able to report a few damaging effects such as pieces of roofing scratching cars, garbage cans gone missing, fences and outdoor restrooms falling over. I personally witnessed some beach erosion and roof damage. Which leads me to some videos and photos I'd like to share of the ongoing event.

The morning of October 26th I took a detour on my way to Neenah to see the clouds and waves. The winds were from the south early which provided some worthy results. First stop was at Menominee Park in Oshkosh, second at Grundman Park Boat Landing in Vinland, and third at Rainbow Beach in Neenah.

(Menominee Park - Oct 26, 2010)

(Grundman Park Boat Landing - Oct 26, 2010)

(Rainbow Beach - Oct 26, 2010)

Wave action on the west side died down throughout the day mainly due to the directional shift of the winds that was taking place as the low pressure moved. I was limited to the west side of the lake which meant less fetch. October 27th proved to have better opportunities to be in the correct spots where the fetch would be larger with the wind direction. This time the detour took me to Calumet County Park near Stockbridge, WI.

(Calumet County Park - Oct 27, 2010)

Winds on Oct 27 were more southwest and as I have become accustomed, the waves on the east shore are always larger than those on the west shore. Perhaps it has to do with the wind direction and fetch, but depth of the lake in those areas could also play a roll. If I am able to capture more of the Great Lakes Cyclone affecting the Lake Winnebago area I will be updating the photo set and video set on the Internet. Photos are here, videos are here. Links to other regional bloggers who have more detailed information on the storm and it's impacts are below.

Tim's Weather Blog - Duluth, MN
Chicago Weather Center - Chicago, IL
WeatherWatch 12 - Milwaukee, WI
NW Wisconsin Weather - Clayton, WI
Karl Bohnak - Michigan's Upper Peninsula

Regional National Weather Service office summaries.
Green Bay, WI
Milwaukee, WI
LaCrosse, WI
Duluth, MN
Grand Rapids, MI

Archived radar loop of the Great Lakes Cyclone.
Updated at 8:30am Oct 28th.

(US Radarloop - Oct 25-28, 2010)

Historical October Weather & Post Storm Survey

2010-10-22T22:00:00.009-05:00

As we were sitting down at the dinner table on the evening of October 20th a bright flash of light entered the house followed by a loud thunderous boom. A thunderstorm in October? October hasn't produced a thunderstorm since 2007, also a La Nina year, when there were three in the first nineteen days. The rain from the thunderstorm and the persistent light rain throughout the day on the 20th brought our 17 day dry spell to an end. The dry spell ranks third all-time at OSNW3 with 19 and 21 being the top two (click here for graph). Looking ahead, things are forecast to be wetter with temps slightly above average.

(OSNW3 Weather Brief)
(OSNW3 October Observations)

(OSNW3 October 2010 Summary)

(click on graph for the month summary data - it will open a new tab/window)

----

Historical Climate Musings
Karl Bohnak's recent blog entries have stirred my curiosity. On two separate occasions this past week his insight on historical weather patterns in our region brought down the proverbial house in regards to my historical data mining. Below are both accounts in detail for Oshkosh with snippets from Karl's blog. Please visit Karl's blog by following the links below.

October 18-19, 1925: Tragedy in the Mining District
"A persistent northwesterly flow aloft brought in a succession of progressively colder high pressure systems. Ahead of the systems were a series of strong low-pressure areas that produced record October snowfall for a good share of the country."

Here in Oshkosh, October of 1925 went down as the coldest and snowiest October of all-time. Five daily record lows were broken as the temperature spiraled downward the entire month. The exact days Karl writes about in his blog entry produced only a Trace of snowfall in Oshkosh, but they did keep daily max/min temperatures in the 30's. October of 1925 recorded an unprecedented 11 days with a Trace or more of snowfall. A far cry from what October of 2010 has become.

October 20, 1989: Big Snow!
"Farther south, impressive October snows also fell as the storm lifted north. Milwaukee recorded 6.3 inches of snow on October 19th and 20th that coated power lines and trees still full of fall foliage."

The big snow mentioned by Karl proved to be less than impressive in the snowfall department in Oshkosh. Only a Trace was reported on the 20th and 21st for the 48hr period in Oshkosh. Leading up to the event though were two sub-freezing overnight lows which would have definitely put a chill to the bones. A daily record high and low was broken during the month as temperatures were on a roller coast ride. There were three separate strings of days with temperatures in the 70's in the beginning, middle and end of the month.

(Oshkosh - Snowiest Octobers 1893-2009)

(click on list for the complete dataset - it will open a new tab/window)

If anyone is reading this and would like more detailed climate information on any year, month, or day, I would be more than happy to provide what is needed. Daily records from 1893 through 2006 are online and can be found here. Data from Nov 2006 through the current day can be found here, and monthly snowfall totals dating back to 1893 can be found here.

----

Post Storm Survey
After finding out about this project via the NWS in Duluth, MN website I inquired about participation. Potentially having Oshkosh and the surrounding areas get involved is a good idea in my opinion. Access has been granted and I will be linking to the surveys after each winter snow storm on the blog, website, and twitter. Below are descriptions about the project and links for more information.

The objective of this Post Storm Survey (PSS) is to gain insight into decision-making related to hazardous winter weather, as well as providing a critical tool in bridging the gap between the weather community and users. This information will be vital for the weather forecasting community to improve communicating the threat of hazardous winter weather. The online survey will be available for a limited time following a winter storm in your area.

How Does it Work?

After a winter weather event occurs that requires any type of “warning” issued by the National Weather Service, a PSS team member will activate a link to the survey on the PSS homepage. Then, once a survey has been activated for 3 days following a storms end, it will be taken off the PSS homepage by a PSS team member. If there are no surveys available to take, the site will state to check back after the next storm.

PSS Home Page
PSS Survey Page

----

Front Of House
In about two weeks from now all the trees will be bare and the first signs of snow will be on the doorstep. I am looking forward to it.

(FOH - Oct 22, 2010)

(TAS - Oct 22, 2010)

A Dry Start To October & More La Nina Trends

2010-10-15T22:25:00.010-05:00

A fantastic Indian Summer is what the first half of October 2010 was. Endless warm temperatures coupled with bright sun shining days. Hard to beat in my opinion. However with all the wonderful weather conditions came a lack of precipitation. Only 0.14" of rain has fallen this month to date at my location. Currently we are in the top 10 for longest dry spells since Nov 1, 2006, coming in at 12 days and looking to climb in the coming days (Days With 0.00", graph). Long range forecasts show a slight warm up, 8 days from now, with continued dry conditions. A typical La Nina scenario for this time of year.

(OSNW3 Weather Brief)
(OSNW3 October Observations)

(OSNW3 October 2010 Summary)

(click on graph for the month summary data - it will open a new tab/window)

----

Another La Nina Comparison
For this entry I compared the meteorlogical winter, Dec-Jan-Feb, eliminating the transition months of Oct, Nov, Mar, and Apr. I found that the strongest seasons of the ONI index were not always big snow producers. That is especially true when the index is strong coming into October. It tends to deepen some throughout the winter but Oshkosh lacks the big snow totals. Average snowfall when a Jul-Sep index is -1 or deeper is only 28.0", two plus inches below the average Oshkosh winter. Perhaps we will end up with more rain events than snow events this winter?

(Oshkosh La Nina Winter)

And what I've been waiting for, our NWS in Green Bay has put out their variation of a winter outlook and La Nina. Click here for the outlook.

----

Predictions for OSNW3's Winter
Winter is just around the corner. Each season predictions are made for the first 1" snowfall, the first "actual" day of Winter, and the total snowfall for the season at OSNW3. If you're reading please feel free to make a prediction. Below is how it breaks down.

Predict the:
First 1" snowfall at OSNW3.
First "actual" day of Winter at OSNW3.
Total Snowfall for the season at OSNW3.

Last day to choose is Oct 31, unless of course the event takes place prior, then you're outta luck. Basically, if snow is in the 7-day forecast from the NWS prior to Oct 31, it's already too late to guess.

Climate data and info to help you choose.
Winter Firsts and Lasts
Winter Definitions of "Actual"
Average Date of First Snowfall

Current Predictions:
joshherman - October 13, 2010 at 5:34:16 pm
Nov 29 - First 1" snowfall at OSNW3
Dec 15 - First "actual" day of Winter at OSNW3.
46" - Total Snowfall at OSNW3.

DoubleJ - October 14, 2010 at 4:52:23 pm
Nov 25th - First 1"
Dec 9th - First Actual
57" - Total

RangerRoy - October 15, 2010 at 9:06:57 am
November 29th 1" of snow
December 16th first day of winter
Total Snowfall = 35.6"

Last season winners...
First 1" snowfall. joshherman and Chris
First "actual" day of Winter. joshherman and Bex
Seasonal snowfall. Bex

----

Front Of House
We are on cut 11. I highly doubt I'll be cutting the grass any more this year. I am on step one of trimming. The green bushes in front have been trimmed. Burning bushes to be trimmed after burning.

(FOH - Oct 15, 2010)

(TAS - Oct 15, 2010)

An Indian Summer Looms

2010-10-04T12:10:00.009-05:00

Back on Sep 24th we had a surge of moist tropical air work in from the south. Daytime highs topped 80° as the atmosphere rung out an inch plus of precipitation. Even a few rumbles of thunder were heard as the weather worked it's way across the area. On the backside, cooler more seasonal air enveloped the region opening the door for a real autumn bite. Our first frost at OSNW3 wasn't far behind. On Sep 27 the temperature dropped to 39.3° for an overnight low and a light frost developed on rooftops around the property. The Last time the low temperature dipped below 40 was on May 11, 2010 (39.9°). 140 days prior. Since then, frost has become more frequent bringing our tally of frosts to 3. We are still waiting for our first freeze and with all this frost talk it's no wonder we are nearing a forecast that calls for Indian Summer conditions to last throughout the upcoming weekend. A summary for the month of September can be found here.

(OSNW3 Weather Brief)
(OSNW3 October Observations)

(OSNW3 October 2010 Summary)

(click on graph for the month summary data - it will open a new tab/window)

----

Site Updates
Continuing the monthly summary creation for past months and years, 2008 is now complete. Click here to view them. With my recent upgrade of Image Salsa I am now able to bring to the Internet a daily time-lapse of the OSNW3 webcam. Click here for the time-lapse. Along with that, WIBN6 Suamico-4 NW has a daily time-lapse as well. Click here for the WIBN6 time-lapse.

----

Front Of House
With an Indian Summer looming, I think I'll have to cut the grass one more time this growing season. And with La Nina being prevalent, I may be cutting in November if we don't get a freeze to halt all growing processes. WxWatcher suggested an annual comparison of the tree across the street. I am obliged. Check back on Oct 8 for a three year comparison of the tree across the street on Oct 7 (2008,2009, & 2010). Fall Color Report is here.

(FOH - Oct 2, 2010)

(TAS - Oct 2, 2010)

(TAS - Oct 7, 2010, 2009, & 2008)

The Summer Afterglow

2010-09-21T22:15:00.013-05:00

Last week my wife told me that her and her co-workers can't recall a school year starting out so chilly. I think it's just the afterglow of a warm summer. Either way, temperatures for the most part have managed to stay below average the past eleven days. Along with the relative chill are the many days with precipitation as well. Our mean temperature for the month stands at 60.5 and our days with measurable precipitation at 12. After the potentially wet and stormy weather in the coming days, long range, 6-14 day, forecasts call for above average temps and below average precip. Conditions that are typical with La Nina for our region this time of year.

(OSNW3 Weather Brief)
(OSNW3 September Observations)

(OSNW3 September 2010 Summary)

(click on graph for the month summary data - it will open a new tab/window)

----

Annual Precipitation
The last week of August and the first half of September have recorded lower amounts of precipitation and are allowing for a nice drying trend for the saturated grounds of June and July. The graph below shows that September has been a dry month since 2007 here at OSNW3. With less than 10 days remaining I am hopeful that we can get to average in 2010.

(OSNW3 Annual Precipitation Summary - Sep 22, 2010)

----

Firsts & Lasts
As we head into autumn the chance for frost and freeze warnings become more frequent. Of course, this then brings the potential for snow and the next thing we know, it's winter. The link below is a listing of OSNW3's firsts & lasts history, which begs to mention the upcoming predictions for the First 1" snowfall at OSNW3, the First "actual" day of Winter at OSNW3, and the Total Snowfall for the season at OSNW3. If interested in participating see this archived blog entry for info.

OSNW3 Winter Firsts & Lasts

(Average Freeze Dates Across North-Central and Northeast WI)

For the most recent Fall Freeze information click here.

----

CoCoRaHS Station WI-BN-6
Back in April we celebrated my Mom's entry into the precipitation observation world with CoCoRaHS. Since then she has gained acceptance into the NWS UCOOP program, and been gifted a live webcam and an occasionally updated website. The WIBN6 website can be found here and the webcam viewed in a larger frame by clicking the image below.

(WI-BN-6 Live Webcam)

----

Front Of House
We remain on cut number 10. The birch tree in the front yard is changing to yellow and the tree across the street is changing to red. The Fall Color Report from TravelWisconsin lists the Oshkosh area as 0-25% with a peek in 4 weeks. On the website, I've added CoCoRaHS daily observation maps on the main page.

(FOH - Sep 20, 2010)

(TAS - Sep 20, 2010)

Early Autumn Heavyweights

2010-09-10T21:40:00.004-05:00

Ahh, the cool and crisp air of autumn. The end of this week has been the most pleasant string of days I can remember. However, we all know the saying "In Like a Lion...". I would venture and say that the 2010 meteorological autumn came in just like that. Last weekend and the early part of this week our region dealt with two potent low pressure systems that dropped the temperatures and pumped up the winds. I recall acknowledging the high dew points of the summer and foreseeing an extra chill on my skin once they left. The cooler air of September came rolling in but I acclimated quickly. I welcome back autumn with open arms. Forecasts call for a cooler than average period through next weekend.

(OSNW3 Weather Brief)
(OSNW3 September Observations)

(OSNW3 September 2010 Summary)

(click on graph for the month summary data - it will open a new tab/window)

----

Thrills Of Autumn
Temperature and wind, they have been relatively pleasant the past couple months. The two low pressures that rolled through brought the yin to their yang in an abrupt fashion. Temperatures reached 80° before the first low but as the system moved out temperatures didn't rise above 65° for the next two days. Overnight lows dipped into the 40's for the first time since May 20, 108 days prior. The second low brought stronger winds which clocked in at 20mph sustained with gusts up to 40mph. These winds favored the southwest to west flow which proved to be a wave maker on the north shore of Lake Winnebago. At the time of the photo below, winds were sustained at 23mph with gusts of 36mph, temperature around 60°. See satellite images below for the very pronounced atmospheric motion. Click the image for the loop.

(High Cliff State Park - Sep, 7, 2010 - 12:30pm)

(US Satellite Loop - Sep 2-4, 2010)

(US Satellite Loop - Sep 6-8, 2010)

----

OSNW3 Website Update
A recent server move has prompted some necessary maintenance and the continuation of the massive OSNW3 Oshkosh-North climatological data dump onto the Internet. The maintenance was to remove all video from the server to free up space and dish it out via YouTube. With all the videos on YouTube now, my next arduous task is to re-link every video in the blog. Sigh. However, on a more upbeat note, each month from 2007 now has a monthly summary graph. 2008 and 2009 are next. For a better understanding of graphical data, please see the text below.

(Monthly Summary Graph Legend)

What it all means...
Pcpn = OSNW3 Daily Precipitation Total
Snow = OSNW3 Daily Snowfall Total
Max Temp = OSNW3 Daily Maximum Temperature
Min Temp = OSNW3 Daily Minimum Temperature
PYMaxT = OSNW3 Previous Year Daily Maximum Temperature
PYMinT = OSNW3 Previous Year Daily Minimum Temperature
AvgMaxT = Oshkosh Daily Average Maximum Temperature
AvgMinT = Oshkosh Daily Average Minimum Temperature
RecMaxT = Oshkosh Daily Record Maximum Temperature
RecMinT = Oshkosh Daily Record Minimum Temperature

----

Front Of House
Cut number 10 has taken place. A few leaves on the burning bush are starting to turn to red. I hope the bush blows up this season, as I will be trimming it later this fall. The past week and a half I've been doing my normal work and play travels around the area. Since I am out and about often, I figured I'd share what I see in regards to the changing of the leaves. I've been on the road to and from Oshkosh, Green Bay, New London, Fond du Lac, Sheboygan and the Northshore of Lake Winnebago. The only areas that are not a fading green are the Northshore of Lake Winnebago which has some bright yellow and red spots and just west of Sheboygan where some faint yellows are present. Click the image for the Google map. Click here for the official WI Fall Color Report. Also, a Wisconsin State Climatology Bulletin - Record Summer Rains for Wisconsin, and More can be found here via the NWS MKE.

(FOH - Sep 10, 2010)

(TAS - Sep 10, 2010)

Summer Is In The Books

2010-08-31T12:00:00.007-05:00

Ending with a week long dry spell, the summer of 2010 was still a deluge for the record books. What seemed like an inevitable feat, August kept OSNW3 out of the top spot for wettest summers of all-time in Oshkosh. Falling just 0.39" short of the 20.80" that fell in 1940 for a second place finish. However, officially, Oshkosh has broken the all-time record recording 0.61" more than the 1940 total at the official COOP site. More on that here and here. This summer also ended up being somewhat warm. The mean temperature for the three months at OSNW3 was 71.55°. Without a maximum temperature above 90° we still finished as the 12th warmest all-time in Oshkosh. OSNW3 recorded 55 days in the 80s and 62 nights in the 60s helping keep the mean temperature elevated. Forecast models are continuing the recent summer trends of warm and wet weather with predictions of above average for both to start the month of September.

(OSNW3 Weather Brief)
(OSNW3 August Observations)

(OSNW3 August 2010 Summary)

(click on graph for the month summary data - it will open a new tab/window)

----

Summer Of 2010
Two words sum it up. Warm and wet.

Area Precipitation Observers
CoCoRaHS : Summer Precipitation Comparison
(station location map)

OSNW3 Summer Comparison
Wettest Oshkosh Summers
Warmest Oshkosh Summers
Dog Days Of Summer 2010 (07,08,09)
Dog Days Of Summer 2007-2010

OSNW3 Monthly Summary
June (month summary)
July (month summary)
August (month summary)

----

Front of House
Things have certainly dried up around the property the last ten days. A special type of weed or grass has sprouted in result. Mow number ten isn't far away. Notice any change in the foliage of the tree across the street?

(FOH - Sep 1, 2010)

(TAS - Sep 1, 2010)

Creeping On All-Time Wettest Summer

2010-08-20T22:00:00.005-05:00

The middle part of August saw a welcomed cool down. A string of days recording below normal temps and low dew points made everyone much more comfortable. Unfortunately we were in Brooklyn, NY during this period to enjoy it. However, the daily weather descriptions left by the back-up OSNW3 observers, MarkMartin and Jeff Bollier, made my daydreams of cooler weather come true. I thank you gentlemen! WeatherScout also noticed and documented the great weather pattern. I am certain that this autumn will feel a bit cooler than usual even though the temps will be average due to our extremely hot and humid summer. My acclimation to dew points in the middle sixties is disheartening.

(OSNW3 Weather Brief)
(OSNW3 August Observations)

(OSNW3 August 2010 Summary)

(click on graph for the month summary data - it will open a new tab/window)

----

Oshkosh City Tournament
Since the early 1930's, the city of Oshkosh has held an annual city golf tournament. I'm fortunate enough to have been participating in it since 2005. This weekend is the big weekend for 2010. 170 participants will battle through a two day 36 hole grind. I say grind because it's going to be sticky. Much more humid than the past five, from what I can remember...

(Weekend Forecast)
Saturday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 7am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 83. Calm wind becoming north northeast between 4 and 7 mph.

Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 84. North northeast wind around 7 mph.

(City Tournament Weather since 2005)

For information on the tournament please visit the Lakeshore Municipal Golf Course website. Good luck to all the golfers!!

----

Front Of House
We're on cut number 9 and August is starting to dry us out. The morning of Aug 24 I noticed some color coming through on the tree across the street, see below. OSNW3 is still in second place for all-time Oshkosh wettest summers. The data set for the precipitation rankings can be found here.

This entry from the NWS Milwaukee is interesting...

(FOH - Aug 24, 2010)

(TAS - Aug 24, 2010)

Early August Heat & La Niña Trends

2010-08-10T22:30:00.008-05:00

August begins as expected for what the 2010 summer has been known for. Hot, humid, and wet. Things will continue this way for the next week or so until a change in the overall patten takes shape. Slightly below average temperatures are forecast for the period starting Aug 16 thru Aug 24. Above average precipitation will accompany the moderate temps. It is likely OSNW3 will surpass the wettest summer (Jun/Jul/Aug) in Oshkosh history total of 20.80". To date we are second with a total summer precipitation amount of 19.37". The data set for the precipitation rankings can be found here. Click here for the temperature rankings.

(OSNW3 Weather Brief)
(OSNW3 August Observations)

(OSNW3 August 2010 Summary)

(click on graph for the month summary data - it will open a new tab/window)

----

La Niña Conditions In Pacific
The NWS Duluth put together a great entry about the current La Niña and what it means for the winter in the Northland. Below is the opening statement. Please click here for the entire entry.

On the August 5th ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, the Climate Prediction Center declared that La Niña conditions had developed in the Pacific Ocean through the month of July. They have issued a La Niña Advisory which means that La Niña conditions have developed and are expected to persist.

Now the question is... What Does It Mean For Northeast Wisconsin winters? I did some digging and documented the results for Oshkosh in similar fashion as the NWS Duluth. Results are below.

Oshkosh Climate Stats
Since the winter of 1949-50, Oshkosh:

* In La Niña winters: averages 48.1" of snow
* In all other winters: averages 38.6" of snow
* Overall: averages 42.0" of snow

On the bottom graph, you can see a running total trend for snowfall for the winter months in Oshkosh. Through December, snowfall in La Niña months tends to be pretty close to overall averages. However, from January through March is when the snowfall tends to be above normal.

If you consider a winter snowfall within 7 inches of the mean to be "average", then only 4 of the 20 La Niña winters saw below average snowfall, with 5 average, and 11 above average. When the Oceanic Nino Index (ONI, sea-surface temperature anomalies in the Nino 3.4 Region) has been -1.0C or lower - indicating a moderate or strong La Niña - half of those winters saw 49 inches or more of snow in Oshkosh.

The last 4 winters have seen above average snowfall in Oshkosh. The winter of 2005-2006 saw 32.0 inches of snow. Oshkosh ended below 30 inches for winters of 2002 through 2005 when the totals were 23.0, 27.2, 26.2 inches respectively. Data set located here.

The NWS in Milwaukee has also done a comprehensive report on La Nina. See full article here.

----

Front Of House
I am anxious to trim my property this Autumn. Except for the garden, things are growing out of control. We are on mow 8 looking for 9 very soon. Speaking of Autumn, it gets me in the mood to hike, as did this site, Great Lakes Waterfalls.

(FOH - Aug 10, 2010)

Summer Time

2010-08-03T16:25:00.009-05:00

July ends on a dry spell, so to speak. Only 0.20" in the last seven days. The two tenths round out the month completing the wettest July in Oshkosh's history. 11.84" were recorded here at OSNW3. More on the record rain in July from the NWS, here. The 6-10 and 8-14 day forecast calls for more above average temperatures and precipitation.

**Addendum : Moister Than Most is a great "top news of the day" entry from the NWS in the Twin Cities. It references the many reasons for the heavy rainfall we have experienced this Summer.

(OSNW3 Weather Brief)
(OSNW3 August Observations)

(OSNW3 August 2010 Summary)

(click on graph for the month summary data - it will open a new tab/window)

----

CoCoRaHS : Summer Precipitation Comparison
Precipitation can vary drastically from one backyard to the next. Especially during the Summer months when Thunderstorms drop locally heavy rains. OSNW3 has recorded three days this Summer with 24hr precipitation totals of over two inches. Two of them being the results of thunderstorms. The link below provides a listing of CoCoRaHS observations for Jun and Jul in Winnebago County.

CoCoRaHS : Summer Precipitation Comparison
(station location map)

Summer comparison through Jul 31, 2010...
Wettest Oshkosh Summers
Dog Days Of Summer 2010
Dog Days Of Summer 2007-2010

Monthly Summary
June (month summary)
July (month summary)

----

Front Of House
I can hardly believe it's August already. Summer is flying by. It's been noticeably warmer this Summer than last and I am enjoying it. Keep it coming.

(FOH - Aug 1, 2010)

The Deluge That Is July 2010

2010-07-25T23:30:00.003-05:00

In just ten days OSNW3 has recorded another 5.15" of new rainfall. The amount is more than impressive, it's record breaking (rankings). Adding the 5.15" onto the 6.49" recorded during the first fifteen days of July puts us at 11.64" for the month through the 25th. The official precipitation record in Oshkosh for the month of July is 8.40". With a break from it today, Jul 25, temps and dewpoints have continued to be above average keeping things nice and hot around the area. OSNW3 is currently 2° above the official Oshkosh monthly mean for July. Many of the EAA campers are enduring the brunt of the record rainfall and above average temps. I personally hope things dry out and the moist air stays south to help make the fly-in a bit more suitable for being outdoors.

(OSNW3 Weather Brief)
(OSNW3 July Observations)

(OSNW3 July 2010 Summary)

(click on graph for the month summary data - it will open a new tab/window)

----

2010 Summer Precip and Temp
Continuing to keep the recent deluge in perspective, as of Jul 25, OSNW3's Summer (Jun/Jul/Aug) is currently ranked 6th for the all-time wettest in Oshkosh's history. The amount jumped up the leaderboard ten spots since the 18th. The number of Dog Days is creeping upward also. Below are links to the data.

Wettest Oshkosh Summers
Dog Days Of Summer 2010
Dog Days Of Summer 2007-2010

----

Front Of House
Cut number seven has taken place and eight is not far behind. Click here for a daily webcam video of the flooding rainfall on Jul 22.

(FOH - Jul 25, 2010)

A Wet First Half Of Summer

2010-07-18T22:45:00.003-05:00

Since Jul 5, OSNW3 has recorded 6.72" of new rainfall. Back to back six inch months have left the property very soggy with a most pungent smell of rotten in some areas. Most days have been hot and humid with abundant sunshine making all shaded spots very popular. This evening, Jul 18, was the most bearable of the past fourteen I can recall with a mostly cloudy sky. It was still humid, but the sun wasn't beating down. Long range forecasts call for more of the same but with a little less precipitation. The WxBrief now includes links for EAA aviation weather information.

(OSNW3 Weather Brief)
(OSNW3 July Observations)

(OSNW3 July 2010 Summary)

(click on graph for the month summary data - it will open a new tab/window)

----

2010 Summer Precip and Temp
Most people in the area are aware of the above average precipitation of late. Putting things in perspective, as of Jul 18, OSNW3's Summer (Jun,Jul,Aug) is currently ranked 16th for the all-time wettest in Oshkosh's history. The significance of this is that Summer is only half through. While the temperature is only two degrees above the average mean, it is on pace to surpass the 47 days above 80° during the most recent warm Summer of 2007.

(Wettest Oshkosh Summers)

(Dog Days Of Summer)

----

Links
Archived Radars and a found Lake Michigan shipwreck news article. Recall the big downpours last week on Jul 14? Our friends in Clayton, WI and Duluth, MN summarize what they dealt with as the storms pushed east. Also, the Preliminary 2009-10 Wisconsin Snowfall Map. More information on this past Winter to come in the weeks ahead.

----

Front Of House
That one "non rain day" away from mow number seven never happened. Our garden is somewhat suffering too. The tomato plants are having a very slow start.

(FOH - Jul 18, 2010)

July 14-15 Storms

2010-07-15T09:50:00.002-05:00

The Oshkosh area and most of our region experienced three rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms during the 24hr period ending 7am Jul 15, 2010. Many daily records were broken and Oshkosh was no stranger, crushing the old daily record of 1.55" by 2+ inches. Here at OSNW3 we recorded a total of 3.67". This daily value is unofficially ranked 10th all-time in Oshkosh's history for largest 24hr precipitation total. (click image for a larger view)

(Oshkosh 24hr precip greater than 3")

----

Some Photos
With such heavy rain in short periods of time it is no wonder that the backyard flooded. The first round of rain came around 5pm dumping 1.02", the second round came around 8pm dumping 1.57", and finally the third round came around 12am dumping 1.08". Below are a few photos of the flooded yard and rain gauge.

(Second Round Measurement)

(Second Round Yard)

(7:30am Gauge)

(7:30am Yard)

----

Video and Radar Loop
As the second round entered the area I was able to venture outdoors and capture a video of the clouds. The clouds were moving at a very fast pace. Click here for the video (.wmv 19MB.) Also, by navigating to the July Observation webpage, clicking on the daily description for Jul 15 will bring up the daily radar loop.

----

More Info
For more information on the storms from the Green Bay NWS, please click here.

A Sticky Start To July

2010-07-05T13:45:00.005-05:00

The dew points have risen well into the 70's around Northeast and Eastcentral Wisconsin this first week of July. Heavy rains have been a result of the moist air around the region. Oshkosh hasn't felt the brunt of the rains thus far though. However, last week Oshkosh did see a 2"+ 24 hour rainfall. Here at OSNW3 we recorded 2.07" during 24 hour period ending at 7am on Jun 27. Some where along the path of the heavy rain came some lightning which surged through the property faulting out the webcam and ethernet port on the server. The server has been repaired but the webcam is still down for maintenance. The short term forecast keeps the area wet and sticky.

(OSNW3 Weather Brief)
(OSNW3 July Observations)

(OSNW3 July 2010 Summary)

(click on graph for the month summary data - it will open a new tab/window)

----

OSNW3 June 2010 Summary
June of 2010 was an active month. We had 20 days with measurable precipitation doubling the Oshkosh long term average which is 9.8 days. It is the most days ever for the month here at OSNW3. We surpassed the Oshkosh monthly average precipitation mark by 2.85". Temperatures started out below average but rebounded during the second half which put us almost a half of degree above average when it was all said and done. No monthly records were broken here at OSNW3. Links to all the data below.

Daily Observations
Monthly Summary

Days with Sun
Monthly Extremes
Days with Measurable Precipitation

Annual Precipitation

----

Front Of House
Landscapes are in full growth mode. Gardens are getting bigger by the hour. We are on mow number 6 with 7 not more than a non rain day away. The rain barrel had it's first real use this past week as it didn't rain for six consecutive days.

(FOH - Jul 5, 2010)

(Garden - Jul 5, 2010)